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Hegglin, Michaela I.

Publications and source records attributed to Hegglin, Michaela I..

5 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations

Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m -2 [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m -2 [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH 4 are continuing to increase, making CH 4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Assessing the relative importance of CH 4 in comparison to CO 2 is complicated by its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and atmospheric growth rate variations over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2019

How Do UTLS Jet and Tropopause Dynamics Influence Ozone Variability? Investigations Supporting the SPARC OCTAV-UTLS Activity

Understanding changes in UTLS ozone is exceptionally challenging because of large spatial and temporal variability and because of the difficulty of satellite measurements in the UTLS. It is also exceptionally important: for example, to understand climate impacts of radiatively active substances and to understand physical and biological effects of pollution transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Multi-decadal global observations of UTLS ozone are now available from numerous satellite platforms, as well as local and regional observations from aircraft, balloons, and lidar. The upper tropospheric (UT) jets and tropopauses are important drivers of composition variability in the UTLS, acting as transport barriers and controlling STE and long-range transport. We report here on investigations of relationships between extratropical UTLS ozone variability and dynamical diagnostics of mixing / transport barriers, Rossby Wave breaking, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. We will view these relationships in the context of ozone mapped into dynamical coordinates with respect to the UTLS jets and / or the tropopause. This work will help provide direction for analyses within the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS (OCTAV-UTLS) activity, which aims to use dynamical coordinate mapping to help detect and attribute observed UTLS composition trends, and to project future data needs to better quantify those trends. The work we report on here will focus on satellite ozone observations (primarily from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, additionally from ACE-FTS and OSIRIS) and assimilated ozone and dynamical fields (from multiple reanalyses); we will also provide some examples of comparisons with aircraft and balloon observations.

Manney, Gloria L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Review of the Global Models Used Within Phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry-climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI-1 recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain inter-model differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI-1 simulations with the aim of informing CCMI data users.

CCMI↗