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Henderson, Michael

Publications and source records attributed to Henderson, Michael.

SIMPLIFIED COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF SUBSEQUENT LICENSE RENEWAL

The license renewal (LR) and subsequent license renewal (SLR) processes, defined in 10 CFR 54, provide a framework for US nuclear plants to extend their operating licenses, but that process can ultimately result in costly, timely, resource intensive efforts to satisfy the requirements for license extension. This report provides areas where the cost, time, and resource efforts may be able to be reduced with additional analytical evaluation, model changes, inspection technique changes, and review of past inspection results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-volt Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

Here, this work designs a new model called PreMevE to predict storm–time distributions of relativistic electrons within Earth's outer radiation belt. This model takes advantage of the cross–energy, –L–shell, and –pitch–angle coherence associated with wave–electron resonant interactions, ingests observations from belt boundaries—mainly by NOAA POES in low–Earth–orbits (LEOs), and provides high–fidelity nowcast (multiple–hour prediction) and forecast (> ~1 day) of MeV electron fluxes over L–shells between 2.8–7 through linear prediction filters. PreMevE can not only reliably anticipate incoming enhancements of MeV electrons during storms with at least 1–day forewarning time, but also accurately specify the evolving event–specific electron spatial distributions afterwards. The performance of PreMevE is assessed against long–term in situ data from one Van Allen Probe and a LANL geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, this new model enhances our preparedness for severe MeV electron events in the future, and further adds new science utility to existing and next–generation LEO space infrastructure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Particle tracing modeling of ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit

The initial results of a coupled MHD/particle tracing method to evaluate particle fluxes in the inner magnetosphere are presented. This setup is capable of capturing the earthward particle acceleration process resulting from dipolarization events in the tail region of the magnetosphere. On the period of study, the MHD code was able to capture a dipolarization event and the particle tracing algorithm was able to capture our results of these disturbances and calculate proton fluxes in the night side geosynchronous orbit region. The simulation captured dispersionless injections as well as the energy dispersion signatures that are frequently observed by satellites at geosynchronous orbit. Currently, ring current models rely on Maxwellian-type distributions based on either empirical flux values or sparse satellite data for their boundary conditions close to geosynchronous orbit. In spite of some differences in intensity and timing, the setup presented here is able to capture substorm injections, which represents an improvement regarding a reverse way of coupling these ring current models with MHD codes through the use of boundary conditions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SHIELDS Predicting Hazards that Results from Solar Storms

Extreme weather happens worldwide and it takes place in the magnetosphere. The magnetosphere is the place where the majority of earth’s satellites reside. These satellites provide weather forecasting and serve as national defense. When solar storms take place, they can damage satellites.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Determination of errors in derived magnetic field directions in geosynchronous orbit: results from a statistical approach

This study aims to statistically estimate the errors in local magnetic field directions that are derived from electron directional distributions measured by Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous (LANL GEO) satellites. First, by comparing derived and measured magnetic field directions along the GEO orbit to those calculated from three selected empirical global magnetic field models (including a static Olson and Pfitzer 1977 quiet magnetic field model, a simple dynamic Tsyganenko 1989 model, and a sophisticated dynamic Tsyganenko 2001 storm model), it is shown that the errors in both derived and modeled directions are at least comparable. Second, using a newly developed proxy method as well as comparing results from empirical models, we are able to provide for the first time circumstantial evidence showing that derived magnetic field directions should statistically match the real magnetic directions better, with averaged errors< ~2°, than those from the three empirical models with averaged errors >~5°. In addition, our results suggest that the errors in derived magnetic field directions do not depend much on magnetospheric activity, in contrast to the empirical field models. Finally, as applications of the above conclusions, we show examples of electron pitch angle distributions observed by LANL GEO and also take the derived magnetic field directions as the real ones so as to test the performance of empirical field models along the GEO orbits, with results suggesting dependence on solar cycles as well as satellite locations. This study demonstrates the validity and value of the method that infers local magnetic field directions from particle spin-resolved distributions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗