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Higdon, David M.

Publications and source records attributed to Higdon, David M..

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Mira–Titan Universe – IV. High-precision power spectrum emulation

Modern cosmological surveys are delivering data sets characterized by unprecedented quality and statistical completeness; this trend is expected to continue in the future as new ground- and space-based surveys come online. In order to maximally extract cosmological information from these observations, matching theoretical predictions are needed. At low redshifts, the surveys probe the non-linear regime of structure formation where cosmological simulations are the primary means of obtaining the required information. The computational cost of sufficiently resolved large-volume simulations makes it prohibitive to run very large ensembles. Nevertheless, precision emulators built on a tractable number of high-quality simulations can be used to build very fast prediction schemes to enable a variety of cosmological inference studies. We have recently introduced the Mira–Titan Universe simulation suite designed to construct emulators for a range of cosmological probes. This gravity-only set of simulations covers the standard six cosmological parameters {ω m , ω b , σ 8 , $h, n_s, w_0$} and, in addition, includes massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy equation of state {ω ν , $w_a$}. In this paper, we present the final emulator for the matter power spectrum based on 111 cosmological simulations, each covering a (2.1 Gpc) 3 volume and evolving 3200 3 particles. In this work, an additional set of 1776 lower resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results for the power spectrum are used to cover scales straddling the linear to mildly non-linear regimes (maximum wavenumber $\textit{k}$ = 5 Mpc –1 ). The emulator provides predictions at the 2–3 percent level of accuracy over a wide range of cosmological parameters and is publicly released as part of this paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example

Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughout this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4–190 %, with an average of 120 % (2 σ ) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Approximate models for the ion-kinetic regime in inertial-confinement-fusion capsule implosions

“Reduced” (i.e., simplified or approximate) ion-kinetic (RIK) models in radiation-hydrodynamic simulations permit a useful description of inertial-confinement-fusion (ICF) implosions where kinetic deviations from hydrodynamic behavior are important. For implosions in or near the kinetic regime (i.e., when ion mean free paths are comparable to the capsule size), simulations using a RIK model give a detailed picture of the time- and space-dependent structure of imploding capsules, allow an assessment of the relative importance of various kinetic processes during the implosion, enable explanations of past and current observations, and permit predictions of the results of future experiments. The RIK simulation method described here uses moment-based reduced kinetic models for transport of mass, momentum, and energy by long-mean-free-path ions, a model for the decrease of fusion reactivity owing to the associated modification of the ion distribution function, and a model of hydrodynamic turbulent mixing. The transport models are based on local gradient-diffusion approximations for the transport of moments of the ion distribution functions, with coefficients to impose flux limiting or account for transport modification. After calibration against a reference set of ICF implosions spanning the hydrodynamic-to-kinetic transition, the method has useful, quantifiable predictive ability over a broad range of capsule parameter space. Calibrated RIK simulations show that an important contributor to ion species separation in ICF capsule implosions is the preferential flux of longer-mean-free-path species out of the fuel and into the shell, leaving the fuel relatively enriched in species with shorter mean free paths. Also, the transport of ion thermal energy is enhanced in the kinetic regime, causing the fuel region to have a more uniform, lower ion temperature, extending over a larger volume, than implied by clean simulations. We expect that the success of our simple approach will motivate continued theoretical research into the development of first-principles-based, comprehensive, self-consistent, yet useable models of kinetic multispecies ion behavior in ICF plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the validation of seismic imaging methods: Finite frequency or ray theory?

Abstract We investigate the merits of the more recently developed finite‐frequency approach to tomography against the more traditional and approximate ray theoretical approach for state of the art seismic models developed for western North America. To this end, we employ the spectral element method to assess the agreement between observations on real data and measurements made on synthetic seismograms predicted by the models under consideration. We check for phase delay agreement as well as waveform cross‐correlation values. Based on statistical analyses on S wave phase delay measurements, finite frequency shows an improvement over ray theory. Random sampling using cross‐correlation values identifies regions where synthetic seismograms computed with ray theory and finite‐frequency models differ the most. Our study suggests that finite‐frequency approaches to seismic imaging exhibit measurable improvement for pronounced low‐velocity anomalies such as mantle plumes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Is Bayesian inference "brittle"?

In a recent report, “Bayesian Brittleness: Why no Bayesian model is ‘good enough,’” (arXiv, 1304.6772v1) the authors prove rigorously that model variations that are arbitrarily small, in a particular technical sense, the posterior expectation of a function can achieve essentially any value that the function alone can achieve, so that Bayesian inference appears to have no robustness whatsoever. We explain this puzzling result, and show why it does not imply a breakdown of Bayesian inference. The explanation is that the models leading to the extreme results depend on the observed data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗