Engineering topics

Higgs, Megan

Publications and source records attributed to Higgs, Megan.

8 records

DOE OSTI2019

A Sensitivity-informed, Process Model Abstraction Implementation in GoldSim - 19276

System-level Performance Assessment (PA) models rely on specific process-level models for some inputs, such as infiltration. For probabilistic PA, the value of the process model output depends on the values of input parameters that also vary in the PA model. The simplest conceptual solution is to draw values of the input parameters from their distributions, run the process level model at these values, and then use the output where it is needed in the PA model. However, this solution is unsatisfactory for multiple reasons: (1) the PA Model should be set up such that new runs can be made and distributions can change without having to go back and run the process-level model; (2) calling the process model from the system model is possible, but technical difficulties remain in coupling the two; and (3) there is no uncertainty in the process-level model results incorporated into the PA model. Therefore, it is desirable to develop a method that maps the values of PA Model inputs to process level model outputs, in real time within the PA Model set up and using as simple of a map as possible without losing key features of the relationship. This has been termed 'model abstraction' because information about process model runs is 'abstracted' to be used with the PA model. A simple 'nearest neighbor' abstraction approach is presented to overcome these problems, in which a sensitivity-informed distance metric is used to map a system-level model realization to the most appropriate process-level model realization. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Development of a Stochastic Infiltration Model for PPA Implementation - 19293

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes and properties such as infiltration, water content, groundwater flow rate, streamflow, and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level infiltration model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model for the West Valley Site in western New York. Additionally, this paper demonstrates a method for obtaining distributions of the long-term average hydrologic processes and properties for a PA model. For this PPA, an infiltration model was developed using HELP (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance) to evaluate the rates of infiltration, percolation, and drainage through several site soil and proposed decommissioning cover systems, as well as the volumetric water contents of each of the unsaturated layers in a modeled soil column. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. For these models, distributions of climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation were scaled to 1000-year averages and were used to force steady-state models that predict 1000-year average infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents. For the HELP model, distributions were developed for the physical and hydrologic properties of each material in a given soil column or cover system, and these properties were allowed to vary stochastically along with climatic inputs. The HELP model was run 5000 times for each of seven different soil and cover systems representing various existing and proposed conditions (i.e. native soil, backfill, existing covers, and a proposed close-in-place cover). The results of the HELP model provide ranges of 1000-year average infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents through and within the various layers of each of the different soil and cover conditions. The model outcomes also demonstrate the effectiveness of a proposed close-in-place cover, which essentially eliminates infiltration during its operational lifetime. Following model simulation, a sensitivity analysis was performed to establish the relative importance of each stochastic input with respect to each output. The outcomes of the model simulations and the sensitivity analysis were implemented into a system-level GoldSim model via a novel sensitivity-informed nearest neighbor approach. These infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents are used to parameterize mixing cells within the GoldSim Contaminant Transport module, which is the primary system-level model used in the PPA. The infiltration rates are also used as boundary conditions for a stochastic groundwater flow model that is also utilized in the PPA, but not discussed in this paper. (authors)

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DOE OSTI2018

Explicitly Accounting for Multiple Spatial Scales in Data Informing Kd Distribution Development - 18414

This work provides an example of incorporating information about spatial scale into input parameter distribution development for probabilistic performance assessment (PA) models and highlights the importance of having an interdisciplinary team working together in the distribution development process. The novel approach is demonstrated for contaminant partitioning coefficients for water/rock (Kds), providing a specific context for discussing the approach and challenges, but the strategy is general and applies to many other PA model inputs. In this example, a PA model of a radioactive waste disposal site is assumed to have large cells representing spatial scales of up to thousands of square meters in area and several to tens of meters in depth. Spatial variability in Kds is expected to occur at scales much smaller than the units in the model domain over which values are applied, and therefore values are intended to represent possible averages over the modeled volume (i.e., spatial scale represented by a PA model cell). Information about possible Kd values for each material category comes from a variety of literature sources, and the reported results used to inform the distribution are available at a wide range of scales (e.g., individual batch experiment results from small-scale samples, averages based on samples collected over site-scales, averages based on samples from large regions, etc.). Effectively addressing the mismatch in spatial scale between available information and the PA Model is a challenge within PA distribution development and it takes effort from database managers, subject matter experts, modelers, and statisticians. (authors)

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DOE OSTI2018

Capturing the 'Representative Person' Using Exposure Equations and Input Variable Distributions - 18416

Radiological performance assessments (PAs) for radioactive waste employ the concept of future human receptors, or persons potentially exposed to radiation releases. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has defined the 'representative person' as a receptor, to replace the earlier concept of an 'average member of the critical group', for use in individual dose assessments and comparisons to regulatory criteria. A representative person can be assessed in PAs by defining a critical group, which is a relatively highly exposed subpopulation; and then estimating average exposures, doses, and risks for that group. Probabilistic PA models employ probability distributions to characterize uncertainty in exposure characteristics/variables at a scale aligned with contaminant transport and other aspects of the PA model. The concept of a representative person from a critical group, in the context of the first stage of an iterative approach and a probabilistic PA model, is illustrated using a receptor scenario and a set of exposure equations that incorporate probability distributions for input variables. Different scenarios may require different equations and distributions, but the approach taken is broadly generalizable. PA practitioners and regulators may benefit from such a generalizable method, as it may simplify approaches as well as facilitate reviews and comparisons between different PAs. (authors)

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DOE OSTI2018

Transient Unsaturated Zone Modeling of Radioactive Waste Pits at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 87544 - 18432

Waste disposals at Material Disposal Area G (MDA G) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) occur primarily in a series of long, rectangular pits into which layers of waste have been emplaced beginning in the late 1950's. MDA G is situated in north-central New Mexico on top of Mesita del Buey, a narrow 3 km long mesa in the Parajito Plateau. The mesa is composed primarily of volcanic tuff from two principle volcanic eruptions in the Jemez Mountains which deposited the Otowi and Tshirege Members of the Bandelier Tuff. The Cerros del Rio Basalt underlay the tuff units and extends down for approximately 200 meters. The water table lies within the basalts at around 300 m below the surface of the mesa. The local climate is temperate and semiarid, averaging around 34 cm of precipitation per year. Ambient subsurface moisture conditions are dry, with water content typically below 10%. During disposal operations, open pits are subject to enhanced infiltration compared to the final covered configuration due to the unvegetated disturbed surface and precipitation events. Additionally, water added to the pits during disposal operations for tasks like waste compaction and dust suppression introduces additional moisture to the system during disposal operations that could potentially provide a pathway for contaminants in the waste zone to migrate through the unsaturated zone. Modeling was conducted using the HYDRUS-2D/3D software to evaluate the spatial extent of saturation changes and fluxes across geologic layer interfaces in the unsaturated zone throughout the life cycle of a waste pit. A general 2-dimensional framework was developed that included a cross section of a waste pit and the underlying geologic units. Several geological layerings were developed to represent the variation across the mesa at Area G. The model was run stochastically for hundreds of realizations to understand how variations in hydraulic parameters (e.g., porosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity, Van Genuchten parameters, etc.) and operational parameters (e.g., pit open period duration, pit depth, initial saturation of the waste zone, etc.) affect the extent of saturation changes and fluxes in the deep unsaturated zone. Distributions for these parameters were developed based on available site data. Results of the unsaturated zone modeling indicate that a significant amount of water can reach the lower unsaturated zone under some circumstances, particularly when the amount of water introduced during pit operations is high. A statistical study of modeling results was performed to develop a regression that describes the variations of water flux in time at the geological layer interfaces. These statistical model results will be used to evaluate solute transport in a future effort. (authors)

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DOE OSTI2017

Realistic Geochemical Parameter Uncertainty for Performance Assessment Modeling - 17066

Performance assessments (PAs) include uncertain geochemical parameters that affect the fate and transport of contaminants in environmental media, such as partitioning coefficients for water/rock (K{sub d}) and water/air (K{sub H}), diffusion coefficients, and aqueous solubilities. A statistical approach to realistic, as opposed to 'conservative,' stochastic distribution development for geochemical parameters is presented here. For contaminants not identified as focus elements during screening, broad generic distributions are developed. If any parameter is flagged in the subsequent model sensitivity analysis (SA), it becomes a focus element for further research during the next round of distribution development. This iterative approach is efficient and technically defensible at each stage. Data are collected in databases and may be appropriately weighted or filtered. In the relatively few cases where data exist from local or analogous rocks, those data may be prioritized. Once established, the databases can be used for future PAs or other environmental models and can be expanded as needed based on model SA results, additional screening, and as additional relevant data become available. The iterative method is demonstrated for K{sub d} and K{sub H} in a PA model for a radioactive waste disposal facility. An SA was performed based on preliminary geochemical parameter distributions that showed certain model endpoints are sensitive to K{sub d} and K{sub H} values for some contaminants. This underscores the importance of including realistic uncertainty in these geochemical parameters. (authors)

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DOE OSTI2017

Decision and Modeling Strategy for a Radiological Risk Assessment at Area G, Los Alamos, New Mexico - 17258

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owns a low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal site at Material Disposal Area G, in Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA. Area G has been the primary LLW disposal site for Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) since the 1960's, and is now approaching the end of its service life. In addition to LLW, Area G is host to a variety of other wastes, the disposition of which must be determined before closure of the site. A probabilistic Radiological Risk Assessment (RRA) for Area G is used in order to support decision making regarding some wastes that are not addressed in the extant Area G Performance Assessment (PA) and Composite Analysis (CA). Between 1979 and 1987, 33 special shafts were augered into the Bandelier Tuff at Area G. This tuff is present across Pajarito Plateau on the eastern slopes of the Jemez Mountains, and varies widely in its consistency, from weakly indurated non-welded layers to welded layers that uphold the mesa cliffs of the Plateau. These mesas are home to LANL, Area G, and the town of Los Alamos. The 33 Shafts were lined with steel casing, and contain remote-handled (RH) transuranic wastes (TRU) resulting from experiments and analysis performed in special glove boxes at the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research (CMR) facility at LANL. Some of these wastes originated as used ('spent') nuclear fuel. The purpose of the Area G RRA is to evaluate the potential future risk to humans and the environment from the RH TRU in the 33 Shafts in the context of the risk associated with the surrounding wastes at Area G. The analysis is responsive to expectations outlined in DOE Order 458.1, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment, and is informed by the Manual and Guidance accompanying DOE O 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management. Because the waste meets the definition of TRU, the regulatory context also takes into consideration the regulation governing the disposal of TRU from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): 40 CFR 191, Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes. Given the broader regulatory context for the RRA, the analysis is subject to different assumptions from those made in the existing DOE O 435.1 PA and CA, such as allowing for future occupation of the site. The analysis begins with a comprehensive evaluation of features, events, processes, and exposure scenarios (FEPS) for Area G and the wastes it contains. These FEPS are screened to eliminate from further consideration those of extremely low probability and/or consequence, and a conceptual site model (CSM) is subsequently developed. The scope and structure of the Area G RRA Model is informed by this CSM, and the Area G RRA Model is developed using the GoldSim systems analysis modeling platform. This paper outlines the development of a defensible, transparent, and reasonably realistic model, which is based on the state of knowledge of the wastes, the site, and the FEPS that govern contaminant transport and human exposures. Probabilistic model input distributions represent uncertainties inherent in the real and modeled systems. The results of the Area G RRA Model will inform decision analysis regarding the disposition of the RH TRU in the 33 Shafts. (authors)

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DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Methods for Effective Spatial and Temporal Scaling in Support of Probabilistic Performance Assessments - 17340

Performance assessments (PAs) for the disposal of low-level radioactive waste have traditionally been performed in a deterministic manner, with inputs specified as single values as if they carry no uncertainty. Modern PAs, however, explicitly incorporate uncertainty through use of probability distributions for inputs instead of single values. While this is clearly an improvement, challenges remain in specifying appropriate distributions, many of which relate to capturing the appropriate spatial and/or temporal scale given the PA model, and matching the scale(s) of data and information to that specified by the model. More careful attention to scaling will lead to more defensible characterizations of physical variability and uncertainty in model inputs, thus leading to more defensible information regarding outcomes of interest to be used in decision making, and hence more defensible decisions. This work introduces general strategies and considerations for explicitly incorporating considerations of scale into distribution development. The strategies are explained as a series of steps and then presented with an example that starts to illustrate the new statistical concepts. This work frames the problem in terms of hierarchical statistical modeling, providing important connections to current statistical approaches to formally and rigorously account for temporal and spatial scaling. The larger goal is to build a more formal and unified approach to distribution development to help teams of modelers, subject matter experts, and statisticians work together to develop distributions and justify the choices made in the process, ultimately leading to more informed decision-making. Without this rigor, statistical distributions are not specified correctly and can have unexpected consequences for modeling and sensitivity analysis. (authors)

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