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Hihn, Jairus M.

Publications and source records attributed to Hihn, Jairus M..

12 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Advanced Statistical Methods in Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation: Bayesian Regression and Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis to Support System Engineering in the Early Project Lifecycle

This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.

Johnson, James K.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Review of a Draft - Avoiding the Impossible: Re-focusing a Non-Feasible Mission 2-Hrs into a 3-Day Engineering Session

Concurrent engineering offers a great many benefits to engineers and mission designers throughout the world of aerospace. The only downside of concurrent engineering, and this is somewhat unavoidable, is that you don’t know the results of a design session until the end when it is completed. Usually, this is not a problem – you wouldn’t start building a spacecraft before the design is finished. However, within mass and cost constrained systems, you may end up with a final design that although technically sound – is not feasible due to mass or cost limits. Employing in-session mass and cost models with flexible inputs that refine their estimates and variance as more detailed information comes in throughout a design session allows major design changes to be made when the probability of breaching a mass or cost cap exceeds a threshold level. This enables mission designers to re-focus the study, and avoid spending 3-days with 15 engineers designing a non-feasible mission. By understanding key correlations and nested relationships within mass or cost, and specifically mass or cost allocations per mission element by mission type, it’s possible to get flexible-input, statistically based mass and cost estimates very early in the design process. Baseline models are seeded using mission characteristics and general parameters (outer planetary orbiter-probe mission, $500M cost cap for example) to provide a rough estimate of the expected mass or cost. As information gets solidified during the session, it gets added to the model and the estimates are updated. Continuing the orbiter-probe mission example, modeling probe heat shield cost as a percent of total probe cost, and probe cost as a percent of total flight system cost, and total flight system cost as a percent of total mission cost allows a design team to roll-up solidified information to estimate the probability of fitting within a mass or cost constraint early in a concurrent design session. When only the heat shield cost is known, the variance of the final estimate is higher, whereas when the full probe gets defined, naturally, the variance of the estimate decreases. A methodology, model, verification and demo implementation for cost limit breach are presented.

Hihn, Jairus M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Software Development Standard Processes (SDSP)

A JPL-created set of standard processes is to be used throughout the lifecycle of software development. These SDSPs cover a range of activities, from management and engineering activities, to assurance and support activities. These processes must be applied to software tasks per a prescribed set of procedures. JPL s Software Quality Improvement Project is currently working at the behest of the JPL Software Process Owner to ensure that all applicable software tasks follow these procedures. The SDSPs are captured as a set of 22 standards in JPL s software process domain. They were developed in-house at JPL by a number of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) residing primarily within the Engineering and Science Directorate, but also from the Business Operations Directorate and Safety and Mission Success Directorate. These practices include not only currently performed best practices, but also JPL-desired future practices in key thrust areas like software architecting and software reuse analysis. Additionally, these SDSPs conform to many standards and requirements to which JPL projects are beholden.

Lavin, Milton L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Source Lines Counter (SLiC) Version 4.0

Source Lines Counter (SLiC) is a software utility designed to measure software source code size using logical source statements and other common measures for 22 of the programming languages commonly used at NASA and the aerospace industry. Such metrics can be used in a wide variety of applications, from parametric cost estimation to software defect analysis. SLiC has a variety of unique features such as automatic code search, automatic file detection, hierarchical directory totals, and spreadsheet-compatible output. SLiC was written for extensibility; new programming language support can be added with minimal effort in a short amount of time. SLiC runs on a variety of platforms including UNIX, Windows, and Mac OSX. Its straightforward command-line interface allows for customization and incorporation into the software build process for tracking development metrics. T

Monson, Erik W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Identification and Classification of Common Risks in Space Science Missions

Due to the highly constrained schedules and budgets that NASA missions must contend with, the identification and management of cost, schedule and risks in the earliest stages of the lifecycle is critical. At the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) it is the concurrent engineering teams that first address these items in a systematic manner. Foremost of these concurrent engineering teams is Team X. Started in 1995, Team X has carried out over 1000 studies, dramatically reducing the time and cost involved, and has been the model for other concurrent engineering teams both within NASA and throughout the larger aerospace community. The ability to do integrated risk identification and assessment was first introduced into Team X in 2001. Since that time the mission risks identified in each study have been kept in a database. In this paper we will describe how the Team X risk process is evolving highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. The paper will especially focus on the identification and classification of common risks that have arisen during Team X studies of space based science missions.

Risk Identification↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Business Case for Automated Software Engineering

Adoption of advanced automated SE (ASE) tools would be more favored if a business case could be made that these tools are more valuable than alternate methods. In theory, software prediction models can be used to make that case. In practice, this is complicated by the 'local tuning' problem. Normally. predictors for software effort and defects and threat use local data to tune their predictions. Such local tuning data is often unavailable. This paper shows that assessing the relative merits of different SE methods need not require precise local tunings. STAR 1 is a simulated annealer plus a Bayesian post-processor that explores the space of possible local tunings within software prediction models. STAR 1 ranks project decisions by their effects on effort and defects and threats. In experiments with NASA systems. STARI found one project where ASE were essential for minimizing effort/ defect/ threats; and another project were ASE tools were merely optional.

model evaluation↗
NASA NTRS2006

Software Development Cost Estimation Executive Summary

Identify simple fully validated cost models that provide estimation uncertainty with cost estimate. Based on COCOMO variable set. Use machine learning techniques to determine: a) Minimum number of cost drivers required for NASA domain based cost models; b) Minimum number of data records required and c) Estimation Uncertainty. Build a repository of software cost estimation information. Coordinating tool development and data collection with: a) Tasks funded by PA&E Cost Analysis; b) IV&V Effort Estimation Task and c) NASA SEPG activities.

data mining↗
NASA NTRS1994

Method Of Predicting Size Of Software Under Development

Method of estimating size and complexity of large computer program under development based on metric called "function mass." Simplification of Demarco's "function bang" metric. Size of completed program usually expressed in terms of number of lines of code (SLOC), shown in previous research to be highly correlated with amount of development effort and therefore important predictor of development cost. Proposed method of estimating ultimate size of program is intermediate product of continuing research on estimation of size and structured analysis of developmental software.

Hihn, Jairus M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Software forecasting as it is really done: A study of JPL software engineers

This paper presents a summary of the results to date of a Jet Propulsion Laboratory internally funded research task to study the costing process and parameters used by internally recognized software cost estimating experts. Protocol Analysis and Markov process modeling were used to capture software engineer's forecasting mental models. While there is significant variation between the mental models that were studied, it was nevertheless possible to identify a core set of cost forecasting activities, and it was also found that the mental models cluster around three forecasting techniques. Further partitioning of the mental models revealed clustering of activities, that is very suggestive of a forecasting lifecycle. The different forecasting methods identified were based on the use of multiple-decomposition steps or multiple forecasting steps. The multiple forecasting steps involved either forecasting software size or an additional effort forecast. Virtually no subject used risk reduction steps in combination. The results of the analysis include: the identification of a core set of well defined costing activities, a proposed software forecasting life cycle, and the identification of several basic software forecasting mental models. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the results for current individual and institutional practices.

Griesel, Martha Ann↗
NASA NTRS1988

Ada software productivity prototypes: A case study

A case study of the impact of Ada on a Command and Control project completed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is given. The data for this study was collected as part of a general survey of software costs and productivity at JPL and other NASA sites. The task analyzed is a successful example of the use of rapid prototyping as applied to command and control for the U.S. Air Force and provides the U.S. Air Force Military Airlift Command with the ability to track aircraft, air crews and payloads worldwide. The task consists of a replicated database at several globally distributed sites. The local databases at each site can be updated within seconds after changes are entered at any one site. The system must be able to handle up to 400,000 activities per day. There are currently seven sites, each with a local area network of computers and a variety of user displays; the local area networks are tied together into a single wide area network. Using data obtained for eight modules, totaling approximately 500,000 source lines of code, researchers analyze the differences in productivities between subtasks. Factors considered are percentage of Ada used in coding, years of programmer experience, and the use of Ada tools and modern programming practices. The principle findings are the following. Productivity is very sensitive to programmer experience. The use of Ada software tools and the use of modern programming practices are important; without such use Ada is just a large complex language which can cause productivity to decrease. The impact of Ada on development effort phases is consistent with earlier reports at the project level but not at the module level.

Hihn, Jairus M.↗