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Hilburn, Kyle

Publications and source records attributed to Hilburn, Kyle.

An Enhanced Seasonal Transition that Intensified Summer Drought in the Central U.S.

Precipitation in the central U.S. decreases by about 25% during the seasonal transition from June to July, and this precipitation decrease has been observed to have intensified since 1979. Such an intensification could enhance future spring drought occurrences such as was the case in the 2012 "flash drought" in the Midwestern U.S., where conditions evolved quickly from being abnormally dry to exceptionally dry within a mere month from June to July. In this study, various atmospheric and land reanalysis datasets were analyzed to examine the trend calculated from 1979 to 2012 in the June-to-July seasonal transition. It was found that the change in precipitation deficit was accompanied by increased downward shortwave radiation flux and tropospheric subsidence, enhanced evaporative fraction, as well as an elevated planetary boundary layer height. The change in the tropospheric circulation encompassed an anomalous ridge over the western U.S. and a trough on either side; this wave-form circulation pattern is known to induce dry conditions in the central U.S. Possibly, the trends in the June-to-July seasonal shifts in precipitation, drought severity and tropospheric circulation intensified the 2012 "flash drought" in timing and extent. The knowledge of the trends allows one to anticipate the evolution of spring onset of drought into the summer.

Drought

Could the 2012 Drought in Central U.S. Have Been Anticipated? A Review of NASA Working Group Research

This paper summarizes research related to the 2012 record drought in the central United States conducted by members of the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS) Working Group. Past drought patterns were analyzed for signal coherency with latest drought and the contribution of long-term trends in the Great Plains low-level jet, an important regional circulation feature of the spring rainy season in the Great Palins. Long-term changes in the seasonal transition from rainy spring into dry summer were also examined. Potential external forcing from radiative processes, soil-air interactions, and ocean teleconnections were assessed as contributors to the intensity of the drought. The atmospheric Rossby wave activity was found to be a potential source of predictability for the onset of drought. A probabilistic model was introduced and evaluated for its performance in predicting drought recovery in the Great Plains.

Drought 2012

The Aquarius Salinity Retrieval Algorithm

The first part of this presentation gives an overview over the Aquarius salinity retrieval algorithm. The instrument calibration [2] converts Aquarius radiometer counts into antenna temperatures (TA). The salinity retrieval algorithm converts those TA into brightness temperatures (TB) at a flat ocean surface. As a first step, contributions arising from the intrusion of solar, lunar and galactic radiation are subtracted. The antenna pattern correction (APC) removes the effects of cross-polarization contamination and spillover. The Aquarius radiometer measures the 3rd Stokes parameter in addition to vertical (v) and horizontal (h) polarizations, which allows for an easy removal of ionospheric Faraday rotation. The atmospheric absorption at L-band is almost entirely due to molecular oxygen, which can be calculated based on auxiliary input fields from numerical weather prediction models and then successively removed from the TB. The final step in the TA to TB conversion is the correction for the roughness of the sea surface due to wind, which is addressed in more detail in section 3. The TB of the flat ocean surface can now be matched to a salinity value using a surface emission model that is based on a model for the dielectric constant of sea water [3], [4] and an auxiliary field for the sea surface temperature. In the current processing only v-pol TB are used for this last step.

Meissner, Thomas

NEWS Integration: Observations

This viewgraph presentation reviews The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) methodology and integration of data products from remote sensing observations. The contents include: 1) Theme Objective; 2) Scope of Current Theme-related NEWS investigation; 3) Progress; 4) Anticipated Accomplishments (near-term and long-range); 5) Assessment of Overall Science Value (to NEWS and Earth Science in general); and 6) Outstanding Issues.

remote sensing