Engineering topics
Hodge, B M
Publications and source records attributed to Hodge, B M.
Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint
Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.
Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint
Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.
Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint
The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.
Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions
Abstract not provided
Impact of High Wind Power Penetration on Hydroelectric Unit Operations: Preprint
This paper examines the impact of this large amount of wind penetration on hydroelectric unit operations. Changes in hydroelectric unit operating unit patterns are examined for an aggregation of all hydro generators.
Cost-Causation and Integration Cost Analysis for Variable Generation
This report examines how wind and solar integration studies have evolved, what analysis techniques work, what common mistakes are still made, what improvements are likely to be made in the near future, and why calculating integration costs is such a difficult problem and should be undertaken carefully, if at all.