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Hoffert, Steven G.

Publications and source records attributed to Hoffert, Steven G..

Studies of Florida Thunderstorms Using LDAR, LLP, and Single Doppler Radar Data

The paper summarizes results from research conducted on thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Florida, between 1993 and 1998. The focus of the research was to identify procedures that would assist weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) in real-time detection and forecasting of the lightning threat to launches and daily ground operations at KSC/CCAS sites. The research was divided into three topics: (1) studies aimed at improving the forecasting of the initial cloud-ground (CG) lightning threat, (2) studies aimed at improving the forecasting of the end-of-storm termination of the CG lightning threat, and (3) studies of the location of CG strikes relative to the thunderstorm radar echo and to lightning discharges aloft. Only the first two topics are covered in this preprint.

Forbes, Gregory S.↗

The 29 July 1994 Merritt Island, Fl Microburst: A Case Study Intercomparing Kennedy Space Center Three-Dimensional Lightning Data (LDAR) and WSR-88D Radar Data

Many researchers have shown that the development and evolution of electrical discharges within convective clouds is fundamentally related to the growth and dynamics of precipitation particles aloft. In the presence of strong updrafts above the freezing level collisions among mixed-phase particles (i.e., hail. ice, supercooled water) promote the necessary charge separation needed to initiate intra-cloud lightning. A precipitation core that descends below the freezing level is often accompanied by a change in the electrical structure of the cloud. Consequently, more Cloud-to-Ground (CG) than Intra-Cloud (IC) lightning flashes appear. Descending precipitation cores can also play a significant role in the evolution of mesoscale features at the surface (e.g., microbursts, downbursts) because of latent heat and mass loading effects of water and ice. For this reason, some believe that lightning and microbursts are fundamentally linked by the presence of ice particles in thunderstorms. Several radar and lightning studies of microburst thunderstorms from COHMEX in 1986 showed that the peak IC lightning systematically occurred ten minutes before the onset of a microburst. In contrast, most CG lightning occurred at the time of the microburst. Many of the preceding studies have been done using high-resolution research radars and experimental lightning detection systems in focused field projects. In addition, these studies could only determine the vertical origin or occurrence of IC lightning, and not a true three-dimensional representation. Currently, the WSR-88D radar system and a real-time, state-of-the-art lightning system (LDAR) at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida provide an opportunity to extend these kinds of studies in a more meaningful operational setting.

Hoffert, Steven G.↗

Lightning forecasting studies using LDAR, LLP, field mill, surface mesonet, and Doppler radar data

The ultimate goal of this research is to develop rules, algorithms, display software, and training materials that can be used by the operational forecasters who issue weather advisories for daily ground operations and launches by NASA and the United States Air Force to improve real-time forecasts of lightning. Doppler radar, Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), Lightning Location and Protection (LLP), field mill (Launch Pad Lightning Warning System -- LPLWS), wind tower (surface mesonet) and additional data sets have been utilized in 10 case studies of thunderstorms in the vicinity of KSC during the summers of 1994 and 1995. These case studies reveal many intriguing aspects of cloud-to-ground, cloud-to-cloud, in-cloud, and cloud-to-air lightning discharges in relation to radar thunderstorm structure and evolution. They also enable the formulation of some preliminary working rules of potential use in the forecasting of initial and final ground strike threat. In addition, LDAR and LLP data sets from 1993 have been used to quantify the lightning threat relative to the center and edges of LDAR discharge patterns. Software has been written to overlay and display the various data sets as color imagery. However, human intervention is required to configure the data sets for proper intercomparison. Future efforts will involve additional software development to automate the data set intercomparisons, to display multiple overlay combinations in a windows format, and to allow for animation of the imagery. The software package will then be used as a tool to examine more fully the current cases and to explore additional cases in a timely manner. This will enable the formulation of more general and reliable forecasting guidelines and rules.

Forbes, Gregory S.↗