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Hu, Zhen

Publications and source records attributed to Hu, Zhen.

12 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic machine learning for battery health diagnostics and prognostics—review and perspectives

Abstract Diagnosing lithium-ion battery health and predicting future degradation is essential for driving design improvements in the laboratory and ensuring safe and reliable operation over a product’s expected lifetime. However, accurate battery health diagnostics and prognostics is challenging due to the unavoidable influence of cell-to-cell manufacturing variability and time-varying operating circumstances experienced in the field. Machine learning approaches informed by simulation, experiment, and field data show enormous promise to predict the evolution of battery health with use; however, until recently, the research community has focused on deterministic modeling methods, largely ignoring the cell-to-cell performance and aging variability inherent to all batteries. To truly make informed decisions regarding battery design in the lab or control strategies for the field, it is critical to characterize the uncertainty in a model’s predictions. After providing an overview of lithium-ion battery degradation, this paper reviews the current state-of-the-art probabilistic machine learning models for health diagnostics and prognostics. Details of the various methods, their advantages, and limitations are discussed in detail with a primary focus on probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification. Last, future trends and opportunities for research and development are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A global significance evaluation method using simulated events

In High-Energy Physics experiments it is often necessary to evaluate the global statistical significance of apparent resonances observed in invariant mass spectra. One approach to determining significance is to use simulated events to find the probability of a random fluctuation in the background mimicking a real signal. As a high school summer project, we demonstrate a method with Monte Carlo simulated events to evaluate the global significance of a potential resonance with some assumptions. This method for determining significance is general and can be applied, with appropriate modification, to other resonances.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Charged particle tracking in real-time using a full-mesh data delivery architecture and associative memory techniques

We present a flexible and scalable approach to address the challenges of charged particle track reconstruction in real-time event filters (Level-1 triggers) in collider physics experiments. The method described here is based on a full-mesh architecture for data distribution and relies on the Associative Memory approach to implement a pattern recognition algorithm that quickly identifies and organizes hits associated to trajectories of particles originating from particle collisions. We describe a successful implementation of a demonstration system composed of several innovative hardware and algorithmic elements. The implementation of a full-size system relies on the assumption that an Associative Memory device with the sufficient pattern density becomes available in the future, either through a dedicated ASIC or a modern FPGA. We demonstrate excellent performance in terms of track reconstruction efficiency, purity, momentum resolution, and processing time measured with data from a simulated LHC-like tracking detector.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian model updating with finite element vs surrogate models: Application to a miter gate structural system

Bayesian finite element (FE) model updating using direct model evaluations of large-scale high-fidelity FE models is extremely computationally expensive. Surrogate models can be used as fast emulators of FE models to accelerate the model calibration process. The physics/mechanics-based FE models are still the underpinning behind the surrogate models. Here, this paper evaluates the loss in accuracy and the gain in computational time while performing Bayesian model updating by using surrogate model evaluations compared to using direct FE model evaluations. This evaluation is crucial before entirely relying on surrogate models in model updating for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage prognosis (DP) purposes. This paper also demonstrates Bayesian updating and surrogate model construction of large-scale high-fidelity FE models of infrastructure systems. In this regard, the miter gate structural system is considered as the testbed structure. Three predominant damage modes (loss of contact between gate and wall, loss of thickness due to corrosion, and loss of tension in the diagonal rods) are considered for model updating purposes. Bayesian model updating is performed using direct FE evaluations by leveraging parallel computing. Two types of surrogates, namely polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and Gaussian process regression (GPR), are developed for the miter gate. Model updating is performed again using the trained surrogate models, and the updating results are compared with their counterparts obtained using the direct FE evaluation results. The posterior distribution of the FE model parameters obtained using the trained surrogates are sufficiently accurate with respect to the posterior obtained utilizing the direct FE evaluations. In addition, an approximate 4-fold decrease in the computational time was observed when using surrogate model evaluations instead of direct FE evaluations for model updating.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems: A Comparative Study

Surrogate models play a vital role in overcoming the computational challenge in designing and analyzing nonlinear dynamic systems, especially in the presence of uncertainty. This paper presents a comparative study of different surrogate modeling techniques for nonlinear dynamic systems. Four surrogate modeling methods, namely, Gaussian process (GP) regression, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network, a convolutional neural network (CNN) with LSTM (CNN-LSTM), and a CNN with bidirectional LSTM (CNN-BLSTM), are studied and compared. All these model types can predict the future behavior of dynamic systems over long periods based on training data from relatively short periods. The multi-dimensional inputs of surrogate models are organized in a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) scheme to enable recursive prediction over long periods, where current predictions replace inputs from the previous time window. Three numerical examples, including one mathematical example and two nonlinear engineering analysis models, are used to compare the performance of the four surrogate modeling techniques. The results show that the GP-NARX surrogate model tends to have more stable performance than the other three deep learning (DL)-based methods for the three particular examples studied. The tuning effort of GP-NARX is also much lower than its deep learning-based counterparts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model correction and updating of a stochastic degradation model for failure prognostics of miter gates

Understanding the degradation of the quoin block is vital for failure prognostics in miter gates. Due to the complicated degradation mechanism, degradation models based on simplifications and assumptions cannot accurately describe the damage evolution. It is observed that small errors in a simplified degradation model can lead to a large discrepancy in the remaining useful life estimation attributed to error accumulation over time. Aiming to address this issue in failure prognostics, this paper presents a dynamic model correction framework for a simplified degradation model using strain measurements. In the proposed framework, a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) model is employed to compensate the missing physics in a simplified stochastic degradation model. Here, a maximum likelihood estimation method is developed to estimate the uncertain parameters of the simplified physics-based degradation model along with the unknown PCE model parameters using strain measurements as the observables. The updated damage degradation model is then applied to failure prognostics of a miter gate. Results of a case study show that the proposed approach can effectively improve the accuracy of failure prognostics in miter gates.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forward Physics Facility - Snowmass 2021 Letter of Interest

A rich physics program remains unexplored in the far-forward region at the LHC. The Forward Physics Facility (FPF) is a proposal to enlarge an existing cavern in the far-forward region of ATLAS to house a suite of experiments with groundbreaking new capabilities for neutrinos, long-lived particle searches, milli-charged particle searches, QCD, dark matter, dark sectors, and cosmic rays. The FPF will be located 500 m from the ATLAS interaction point. It is shielded from the ATLAS interaction point by 100 m of concrete and rock, creating an extremely low-background environment, ideal for many standard model studies and new physics searches. In this Letter of Interest, we describe the FPF’s location and general features, its physics potential in the HL-LHC era, and topics for further study.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detecting and studying high-energy collider neutrinos with FASER at the LHC

Neutrinos are copiously produced at particle colliders, but no collider neutrino has ever been detected. Colliders produce both neutrinos and anti-neutrinos of all flavors at very high energies, and they are therefore highly complementary to those from other sources. FASER, the Forward Search Experiment at the LHC, is ideally located to provide the first detection and study of collider neutrinos. We investigate the prospects for neutrino studies with FASER$ν$ , a proposed component of FASER, consisting of emulsion films interleaved with tungsten plates with a total target mass of 1.2 t, to be placed on-axis at the front of FASER. We estimate the neutrino fluxes and interaction rates, describe the FASER$ν$ detector, and analyze the characteristics of the signals and primary backgrounds. For an integrated luminosity of 150 fb –1 to be collected during Run 3 of the 14 TeV LHC in 2021-23, approximately 1300 electron neutrinos, 20,000 muon neutrinos, and 20 tau neutrinos will interact in FASER$ν$, with mean energies of 600 GeV to 1 TeV. With such rates and energies, FASER will measure neutrino cross sections at energies where they are currently unconstrained, will bound models of forward particle production, and could open a new window on physics beyond the standard model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗