Engineering topics

Hutchinson, Brian J.

Publications and source records attributed to Hutchinson, Brian J..

3 records

DOE OSTI2020

Loosely Conditioned Emulation of Global Climate Models With Generative Adversarial Networks

Climate models encapsulate our best understanding of the Earth system, allowing research to be conducted on its future under alternative assumptions of how human-driven climate forces are going to evolve. An important application of climate models is to provide metrics of mean and extreme climate changes, particularly under these alternative future scenarios, as these quantities drive the impacts of climate on society and natural systems. Because of the need to explore a wide range of alternative scenarios and other sources of uncertainties in a computationally efficient manner, climate models can only take us so far, as they require significant computational resources, especially when attempting to characterize extreme events, which are rare and thus demand long and numerous simulations in order to accurately represent their changing statistics. Here we use deep learning in a proof of concept that lays the foundation for emulating global climate model output for different scenarios. We train two "loosely conditioned" Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that emulate daily precipitation output from a fully coupled Earth system model: one GAN modeling Fall-Winter behavior and the other Spring-Summer. Our GANs are trained to produce spatiotemporal samples: 32 days of precipitation over a 64x128 regular grid discretizing the globe. We evaluate the generator with a set of related performance metrics based upon KL divergence, and find the generated samples to be nearly as well matched to the test data as the validation data is to test. We also find the generated samples to accurately estimate the mean number of dry days and mean longest dry spell in the 32 day samples. Our trained GANs can rapidly generate numerous realizations at a vastly reduced computational expense, compared to large ensembles of climate models, which greatly aids in estimating the statistics of extreme events.

climate emulation, extreme climate, impacts, machi↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗

DOE OSTI2020

Systematic Evaluation of Backdoor Data Poisoning Attacks on Image Classifiers

Backdoor data poisoning attacks have recently been demonstrated in computer vision research as a potential safety risk for machine learning (ML) systems. Traditional data poisoning attacks manipulate training data to induce unreliability of an ML model, whereas backdoor data poisoning attacks maintain system performance unless the MLmodel is presented with an input containing an embedded“trigger” that provides a predetermined response advantageous to the adversary. Our work builds upon prior back-door data-poisoning research for ML image classifiers and systematically assesses different experimental conditions including types of trigger patterns, persistence of trigger patterns during retraining, poisoning strategies, architectures (ResNet-50, NasNet, NasNet-Mobile), datasets (Flowers, CIFAR-10), and potential defensive regularization techniques (Contrastive Loss, Logit Squeezing, Manifold Mixup,Soft-Nearest-Neighbors Loss). Experiments yield four key findings. First, the success rate of backdoor poisoning at-tacks varies widely, depending on several factors, including model architecture, trigger pattern and regularization technique. Second, we find that poisoned models are hard to detect through performance inspection alone. Third, regularization typically reduces backdoor success rate, although it can have no effect or even slightly increase it, depending on the form of regularization. Finally, backdoors inserted through data poisoning can be rendered ineffective after just a few epochs of additional training on a small set of clean data without affecting the model’s performance.

Truong, Loc T.↗