Engineering topics
Ivins, Erik R.
Publications and source records attributed to Ivins, Erik R..
A Mesh-Based Computation of Relative Sea Level for Earth System Modeling and Space Geodesy
No abstract available
Future Antarctic Bed Topography and Its Implications for Ice Sheet Dynamics
The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves.We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS.We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45mmyr−1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.
A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance
We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods-especially in Greenland and West Antarctica-and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 plus or minus 49, +14 plus or minus 43, -65 plus or minus 26, and -20 plus or minus 14 gigatonnes year(sup −1), respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 plus or minus 0.20 millimeter year(sup −1) to the rate of global sea-level rise.
Software Analysis of New Space Gravity Data for Geophysics and Climate Research
Both the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellites are returning rich data for the study of the solid earth, the oceans, and the climate. Current software analysis tools do not provide researchers with the ease and flexibility required to make full use of this data. We evaluate the capabilities and shortcomings of existing software tools including Mathematica, the GOCE User Toolbox, the ICGEM's (International Center for Global Earth Models) web server, and Tesseroids. Using existing tools as necessary, we design and implement software with the capability to produce gridded data and publication quality renderings from raw gravity data. The straight forward software interface marks an improvement over previously existing tools and makes new space gravity data more useful to researchers. Using the software we calculate Bouguer anomalies of the gravity tensor's vertical component in the Gulf of Mexico, Antarctica, and the 2010 Maule earthquake region. These maps identify promising areas of future research.
Models of Active Glacial Isostasy Roofing Warm Subduction: Case of the South Patagonian Ice Field
Modern geodetic techniques such as precise Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-resolution space gravity mapping (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) make it possible to measure the present-day rate of viscoelastic gravitational Earth response to present and past glacier mass changes. The Andes of Patagonia contain glacial environments of dramatic mass change. These mass load changes occur near a tectonically active boundary between the Antarctic and South American plates. The mechanical strength of the continental side of this boundary is influenced by Neogene ridge subduction and by the subduction of a youthful oceanic slab. A ridge of young volcanos parallels the Pacific coastline. Release of volatiles (such as water) at depth along this ridge creates a unique rheological environment. To assess the influence of this rheological ridge structure on the observational land uplift rate, we apply a two dimensional viscoelastic Earth model. A numerical study is presented which examines the sensitivity of the glacial loading-unloading response to the complex structure at depth related to the subducting slab, the viscous wedge between slab and continental lithosphere, and the increase of elastic thickness from oceanic to continental lithosphere. A key feature revealed by our numerical experiments is a continuum flow wherein the slab subdues the material transport toward oceanic mantle and crust. The restricted flow is sensitive to the details of slab mechanical strength and penetration into the upper mantle. The reduced viscosity within the mantle wedge, however, enhances the load-induced material transport everywhere within the asthenosphere.
Post-glacial Sediment Load and Subsidence in Coastal Louisiana
Sea level rise in the Gulf of Mexico has occurred at a rate of 1.8-2.2 mm/yr during the 20th century, or nearly the same as observed globally due to combined steric and water mass changes. Tide gauges in coastal Louisiana, however, record a substantially larger rate of rise and while a number of causal mechanisms may be responsible, their specific contribution is poorly understood. Using a realistic viscoelastic Earth model, detailed geologic parameters for south Louisiana and new GPS data, we demonstrate that Holocene sedimentary loading in the Gulf and Mississippi River delta is capable of contributing to 1-8 mm/yr of subsidence over areas of 30-0.75 x 10(exp 3) km(exp 2).
Site Distribution and Aliasing Effects in the Inversion for Load Coefficients and Geocenter Motion from GPS Data
Precise GPS measurements of elastic relative site displacements due to surface mass loading offer important constraints on global surface mass transport. We investigate effects of site distribution and aliasing by higher-degree (n greater than or equal 2) loading terms on inversion of GPS data for n = 1 load coefficients and geocenter motion. Covariance and simulation analyses are conducted to assess the sensitivity of the inversion to aliasing and mismodeling errors and possible uncertainties in the n = 1 load coefficient determination. We found that the use of center-of-figure approximation in the inverse formulation could cause 10- 15% errors in the inverted load coefficients. n = 1 load estimates may be contaminated significantly by unknown higher-degree terms, depending on the load scenario and the GPS site distribution. The uncertainty in n = 1 zonal load estimate is at the level of 80 - 95% for two load scenarios.
Site distribution and aliasing effects in the inversion for load coefficients and geocenter motion from GPS data
Precise GPS measurements of elastic relative site displacements due to surface mass loading offer important constraints on global surface mass transport. We investigate effects of site distribution and aliasing by higher- degree (n ≥ 2) loading terms on inversion of GPS data for n = 1 load coefficients and geocenter motion. Covariance and simulation analyses are conducted to assess the sensitivity of the inversion to aliasing and mismodeling errors and possible uncertainties in the n = 1 load coefficient determination. We found that the use of center-of-figure approximation in the inverse formulation could cause 10– 15% errors in the inverted load coefficients. n = 1 load estimates may be contaminated significantly by unknown higher-degree terms, depending on the load scenario and the GPS site distribution. The uncertainty in n = 1 zonal load estimate is at the level of 80–95% for two load scenarios.
Antarctic Rebound and the Time-Dependence of the Earth's Shape
Great strides have been made during the past 30 years in refining models of the last global glaciation. The refinements draw upon a vastly expanded relative sea level and sedimentary core record. Furthermore, we now possess a sharpened understanding of the mechanisms that drive climate changes associated with deglaciation. Some 15 years ago, using only 5.5 years of ranging data, analyses of the drift in LAGEOS I node acceleration was used to infer that postglacial rebound was responsible for a secular change in the Earth's ellipsoidal shape (Yoder et al., .1983]. Today there exists a wealth of geodynamics satellite orbit data that constrain the secular time-dependence of the Earth's shape and low order gravity field, which includes mass redistribution from present-day glacier and great ice sheet imbalance and from postglacial rebound. We have shown that an unambiguous determination of the secular variation in the Earth's pear shaped harmonic (l = 3, m = 0) might provide information that bears on the present-day mass balance of Antarctica. This issue is revisited in light of new constraints on glacial loading during the late-Pleistocene and Holocene. An especially critical issue for the interpretation of secular odd degree zonal harmonics, l = 3 to 7, is the timing and magnitude of the deglaciation of Antarctica from Last Glacial Maximum. We explore ways in which the recovery of secular variation in both zonal and non-zonal harmonics for l = 2 through 7 can improve constraints on both rebound and present-day ice sheet balance.
Antarctic Crustal Motions Driven by Present Day Ice Sheet Evolution and by Isostatic Memory of the Last Glacial Maximum
Detectable crustal motion and secular rate of change of solid-surface gravity may be produced by the Earth's response to present day and/or past ice mass changes in Antarctica.
Global Geodetic Signatures of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Four scenarios of present day Antarctic ice sheet mass change are developed from comprehensive reviews of the available glaciological and oceanographic evidence. The gridded scenarios predict widely varying contributions to secular sea level change xi ranging from -1.1 to 0.45 mm/yr, and predict polar motion m and time-varying low-degree gravitational coefficients J(sub l) that differ significantly from earlier estimates. A reasonably linear relationship between the rate of sea level change from Antarctica xi(sub A) and the predicted Antarctic J(sub l) is found for the four scenarios. This linearity permits a series of forward models to be constructed that incorporate the effects of ice mass changes in Antarctica, Greenland, and distributed smaller glaciers, as well as postglacial rebound (assuming the ICE-3G deglaciation history), with the goal of obtaining optimum reconciliation between observed constraints on J(sub l) and sea level rise xi. Numerous viable combinations of lower mantle viscosity and hydrologic sources are found that safely "observed" in the range of 1 to 2-2.5 mm/yr and observed J(sub l) for degrees 2, 3, and 4. In contrast, rates of global sea level rise above 2.5 mm/yr are inconsistent with available J(sub l) observations. The successful composite models feature a pair of lower mantle viscosity solutions arising from the sensitivity of J(sub l) to glacial rebound. The paired values are well separated at xi = 1 mm/yr, but move closer together as xi is increased, and, in fact, merge around xi = 2 - 2.5 mm/yr, revealing an intimate relation between xi and preferred lower mantle viscosity. This general pattern is quite robust and persists for different J(sub l) solutions, for variations in source assumptions, and for different styles of lower mantle viscosity stratification. Tighter J(sub l) constraints for l greater than 2 may allow some viscosity stratification schemes and source assumptions to be excluded in the future. For a given total observed xi the sea level rise from Antarctica xi(sub A) is tightly constrained and ranges from 0 to + 1 mr/yr (corresponding to an ablating ice sheet) as estimates of xi are raised from 1 to 2.5 mm/yr. However, when the degree 3 zonal harmonic constraint is removed, the solutions show little sensitivity to Antarctic mass balance, emphasizing the need for a well determined odd-degree secular zonal harmonic for determining polar ice mass balance.
Transient Creep of a Composite Lower Crust: Constitutive Theory - 1
A composite model is proposed to describe the time-dependent response of the Earth's lower crust. The motivation for such it model is twofold: First, new observations of widespread postseismic deformation indicate that the deep continental crust responds viscoelastically, having both long-and short-term decay times. Second, by any number of observationally based rationales, the lower crust is compositionally and structurally heterogeneous over many length scales. For heterogeneities that have much smaller characteristic lengths than the minimum deformation wavelength of interest, the aggregate rheology can be described by composite media theory. For wavelengths of the order of the thickness of the lower crust (approx. = 25-40 km) and larger, composite theory may be applied to heterogeneities that are smaller than about several hundred meters, or equivalent to the vertical extent of a thick lower crustal mylonitic shear zone. The composite media theory developed here is constructed using both Eshelhy-Mori-Tanaka theory for aligned generalized spheroidal inclusions and a generalized self-consistent method. The inclusions and matrix are considered to be Maxwellian viscoelastic: a rheology that is consistent with past homogeneous models of postseismic stress relaxation. The composite theory presented here introduces a transient response to a suddenly imposed stress field which does not appear in homogeneous Maxwell models. Analytic expressions for the amplitude and duration of the transient and for the effective long-and short-term viscosities of the composite are given which describe the sensitivity to inclusion concentration (phi), to shape, and to ratio of inclusion-to-matrix viscosity (R).
Transient Creep of a Composite Lower Crust: A Polymineralic Basis for Rapidly Evolving Postseismic Deformation Modes - 2
Postseismic horizontal strain and displacement following the June 28, 1992, Landers, California, earthquake (M(sub W) 7.3) is broad scale and cannot be explained solely by delayed afterslip located at the rupturing fault trace. Both the observed strain at Pifion Flat Observatory (PFO) and observed Global Positioning System receiver velocities evolve rapidly after the Landers-Big Bear earthquake sequence. The observed exponential decay of these motions, with timescales of 4-34 days, may reflect a soft creep rheology in the lower crust and brittle-ductile transition zone or even within the seismogenic crust itself. Here a simple model of a two-dimensional screw dislocation in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic Earth is employed in conjunction with a composite rheology to demonstrate that the short timescale transient response modes (approx. = 4-34 days) are consistent with the behavior of a biviscous lower crust. The lowest viscosity of this system is derivable from laboratory experimental data on the long-term creep of natural quarztites, and the highest viscosity is consistent with isostasy-related lower crustal flow in a continental extensional tectonic environment. The model predicts significant stress relaxation at the base of the seismogenic crust. Near the base of the seismogenic zone, and about 4 km away from the mainshock, the rate of predicted relaxation is of the order of 0.01 MPa/ d during the first 20 days of postseismic flow. Oblate spheroidal inclusions at 5% concentration levels that are both aligned and fairly flat in shape and that have a viscosity of 3-4 x 10(exp 15) Pa s are consistent with both the amplitude and decay time of horizontal crustal strain observed at PFO after the Landers mainshock. It is speculated that the structures exposed in cross sections and in seismic reflection profiles of the lower crust that have mylonitic associations are, in part, the cause of such rapid postseismic evolution in southeastern California. Unmylonitized quartz-rich rock at sufficiently elevated temperatures could also contribute to the rapid decay modes.
Rheological Model for a Heterogeneous Lower Crust with a Quartzo-Feldspathic Mineralogy
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Present-day Antarctic ice mass changes and crustal motion
The peak vertical velocities predicted by three realistic, but contrasting, present-day scenarios of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance are found to be of the order of several mm/a. One scenario predicts local uplift rates in excess of 5 mm/a. These rates are small compared to the peak Antarctic vertical velocities of the ICE-3G glacial rebound model, which are in excess of 20 mm/a. If the Holocene Antarctic deglaciation history protrayed in ICE-3G is realistic, and if regional upper mantle viscosity is not an order of magnitude below 10(exp 21) Pa(dot)s, then a vast geographical region in West Antarctica is uplifting at a rate that could be detected by a future Global Positioning System (GPS) campaign. While present-day scenarios predict small vertical crustal velocities, their overall continent-ocean mass exchange is large enough to account for a substantial portion of the observed secular polar motion (omega m(arrow dot)) and time-varying zonal gravity field.
Present-day Antarctic Ice Mass Changes and Crustal Motion
The peak vertical velocities predicted by three realistic, but contrasting, present-day scenarios of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance are found to be of the order of several mm/a. One scenario predicts local uplift rates in excess of 5 mm/a. These rates are small compared to the peak Antarctic vertical velocities of the ICE-3G glacial rebound model, which are in excess of 20 mm/a. If the Holocene Antarctic deglaciation history portrayed in ICE-3G is realistic, and if regional upper mantle viscosity is not an order of magnitude below 10(exp 21) pa s, then a vast geographical region in West Antarctica is uplifting at a rate that could be detected by a future Global Positioning System (GPS) campaign. While present-day scenarios predict small vertical crustal velocities, their overall continent-ocean mass exchange is large enough to account for a substantial portion of the observed secular polar motion ((Omega)m(bar)) and time-varying zonal gravity field J(sub 1).
On Lateral Viscosity Contrast in the Mantle and the Rheology of Low-Frequency Geodynamics
Mantle-wide heterogeneity is largely controlled by deeply penetrating thermal convective currents. These thermal currents are likely to produce significant lateral variation in rheology, and this can profoundly influence overall material behaviour. How thermally related lateral viscosity variations impact models of glacio-isostatic and tidal deformation is largely unknown. An important step towards model improvement is to quantify, or bound, the actual viscosity variations that characterize the mantle. Simple scaling of viscosity to shear-wave velocity fluctuations yields map-views of long- wavelength viscosity variation. These give a general quantitative description and aid in estimating the depth dependence of rheological heterogeneity throughout the mantle. The upper mantle is probably characterized by two to four orders of magnitude variation (peak-to-peak). Discrepant time-scales for rebounding Holocene shorelines of Hudson Bay and southern Iceland are consistent with this characterization. Results are given in terms of a local average viscosity ratio, (Delta)eta(bar)(sub i), of volumetric concentration, phi(sub i). For the upper mantle deeper than 340 km the following reasonable limits are estimated for (delta)eta(bar) approx. equal 10(exp -2): 0.01 less than or equal to phi less than or equal to 0.15. A spectrum of ratios (Delta)eta(bar)(sub i) less than 0.1 at concentration level eta(sub i) approx. equal 10(exp -6) - 10(exp -1) in the lower mantle implies a spectrum of shorter time-scale deformational response modes for second-degree spherical harmonic deformations of the Earth. Although highly uncertain, this spectrum of spatial variation allows a purely Maxwellian viscoelastic rheology simultaneously to explain all solid tidal dispersion phenomena and long-term rebound-related mantle viscosity. Composite theory of multiphase viscoelastic media is used to demonstrate this effect.