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Jackson, Charles

Publications and source records attributed to Jackson, Charles.

6 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Technical Report for effort at the University of Texas at Austin Award DE-SC0008083 March 2016 - August 2017

Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is accelerating. Although ice sheet models have improved in recent years, much work is needed to make these models robust and efficient on continental scales and to quantify uncertainties in their projected outputs. The University of Texas at Austin's role in the PISCEES project is to provide guidance on how best to apply uncertainty quantification strategies to evaluating uncertainties in simulations of Greenland and Antarctic contributions to sea level rise in response to environmental forcing. Here we report on several activities that involved project members at UTA including Section 2.1 where we provide a broader overview of challenges to use UQ methods on ice ow modeling. Within Section 2.2 we describe the progress and challenges that remain for implementing important aspects of our "end-to-end" UQ work flow. In sum, we had a break-through in realizing the potential for implementing Active Subspace strategies making use of existing experiments exploring the sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet flow to uncertain basal traction parameters. Section 2.3 presents progress that is being made to explore the effect of uncertainties in bed topography on stability of Thwaites basin, West Antarctica, using the BISICLES ice flow model. This effort is joint with Dan Martin at LBNL and a graduate student being co-mentored by Jackson. The results provide a compelling test case for the BISICLES ice flow model to address an important science question concerning the role of uncertain boundary conditions on ice sheet contributions to sea level rise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Advances in Cross-Cutting Ideas for Computational Climate Science

This report presents results from the DOE-sponsored workshop titled, ``Advancing X-Cutting Ideas for Computational Climate Science Workshop,'' known as AXICCS, held on September 12--13, 2016 in Rockville, MD. The workshop brought together experts in climate science, computational climate science, computer science, and mathematics to discuss interesting but unsolved science questions regarding climate modeling and simulation, promoted collaboration among the diverse scientists in attendance, and brainstormed about possible tools and capabilities that could be developed to help address them. Emerged from discussions at the workshop were several research opportunities that the group felt could advance climate science significantly. These include (1) process-resolving models to provide insight into important processes and features of interest and inform the development of advanced physical parameterizations, (2) a community effort to develop and provide integrated model credibility, (3) including, organizing, and managing increasingly connected model components that increase model fidelity yet complexity, and (4) treating Earth system models as one interconnected organism without numerical or data based boundaries that limit interactions. The group also identified several cross-cutting advances in mathematics, computer science, and computational science that would be needed to enable one or more of these big ideas. It is critical to address the need for organized, verified, and optimized software, which enables the models to grow and continue to provide solutions in which the community can have confidence. Effectively utilizing the newest computer hardware enables simulation efficiency and the ability to handle output from increasingly complex and detailed models. This will be accomplished through hierarchical multiscale algorithms in tandem with new strategies for data handling, analysis, and storage. These big ideas and cross-cutting technologies for enabling breakthrough climate simulation advancements also need the "glue" of outreach and learning across the scientific domains to be successful. The workshop identified several strategies to allow productive, continuous engagement across those who have a broad knowledge of the various angles of the problem. Specific ideas to foster education and tools to make material progress were discussed. Examples include follow-on cross-cutting meetings that enable unstructured discussions of the types this workshop fostered. A concerted effort to recruit undergraduate and graduate students from all relevant domains and provide them experience, training, and networking across their immediate expertise is needed. This will broaden and expand their exposure to the future needs and solutions, and provide a pipeline of scientists with a diversity of knowledge and know-how. Providing real-world experience with subject matter experts from multiple angles may also motivate the students to attack these problems and even come up with the missing solutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop reported herein aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Biological and Environmental Research Exascale Requirements Review. An Office of Science review sponsored jointly by Advanced Scientific Computing Research and Biological and Environmental Research, March 28-31, 2016, Rockville, Maryland

Understanding the fundamentals of genomic systems or the processes governing impactful weather patterns are examples of the types of simulation and modeling performed on the most advanced computing resources in America. High-performance computing and computational science together provide a necessary platform for the mission science conducted by the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) office at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This report reviews BER’s computing needs and their importance for solving some of the toughest problems in BER’s portfolio. BER’s impact on science has been transformative. Mapping the human genome, including the U.S.-supported international Human Genome Project that DOE began in 1987, initiated the era of modern biotechnology and genomics-based systems biology. And since the 1950s, BER has been a core contributor to atmospheric, environmental, and climate science research, beginning with atmospheric circulation studies that were the forerunners of modern Earth system models (ESMs) and by pioneering the implementation of climate codes onto high-performance computers. See http://exascaleage.org/ber/ for more information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗