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Jafarov, Elchin

Publications and source records attributed to Jafarov, Elchin.

Active layer thickness as a function of soil water content

Active layer thickness (ALT) is a critical metric for monitoring permafrost. How soil moisture influences ALT depends on two competing hypotheses: (a) increased soil moisture increases the latent heat of fusion for thaw, resulting in shallower active layers, and (b) increased soil moisture increases soil thermal conductivity, resulting in deeper active layers. To investigate their relative influence on thaw depth, we analyzed the Field Measurements of Soil Moisture and Active Layer Thickness (SMALT) in Alaska and Canada dataset, consisting of thousands of measurements of thaw depth and soil moisture collected at dozens of sites across Alaska and Canada as part of NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). As bulk volumetric water content (VWC) integrated over the entire active layer increases, ALT decreases, supporting the latent heat hypothesis. However, as VWC in the top 12 cm of soil increases, ALT increases, supporting the thermal conductivity hypothesis. Regional temperature variations determine the baseline thaw depth while precipitation may influence the sensitivity of ALT to changes in VWC. Soil latent heat dominates over thermal conductivity in determining ALT, and the effect of bulk VWC on ALT appears consistent across sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Model of Ice Wedge Polygon Drainage in Changing Arctic Terrain

As ice wedge degradation and the inundation of polygonal troughs become increasingly common processes across the Arctic, lateral export of water from polygonal soils may represent an important mechanism for the mobilization of dissolved organic carbon and other solutes. However, drainage from ice wedge polygons is poorly understood. We constructed a model which uses cross-sectional flow nets to define flow paths of meltwater through the active layer of an inundated low-centered polygon towards the trough. The model includes the effects of evaporation and simulates the depletion of ponded water in the polygon center during the thaw season. In most simulations, we discovered a strong hydrodynamic edge effect: only a small fraction of the polygon volume near the rim area is flushed by the drainage at relatively high velocities, suggesting that nearly all advective transport of solutes, heat, and soil particles is confined to this zone. Estimates of characteristic drainage times from the polygon center are consistent with published field observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost

Abstract Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗