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James Williams

Publications and source records attributed to James Williams.

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Winter Fram Strait Ice Area Export: Model vs Observations

Observations show predictive skill of the minimum sea ice extent (Min SIE) from late winter anomalous off-shore ice drift along the Eurasian coastline – leading to local ice thickness anomalies at the onset of the melt season – a signal then amplified by the ice-albedo feedback. We assess whether the observed seasonal predictability of September sea ice extent (Sept SIE) from Fram Strait Ice Area Export (FSIAE, a proxy for Eurasian coastal divergence) is present in Global Climate Model (GCM) large ensembles, namely the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1, and CanESM5. All models show distinct periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are negatively correlated with the May sea ice thickness (May SIT) anomalies along the Eurasian coastline, and the following Sept Arctic SIE, as in observations. Counter-intuitively, several models show occasional periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are positively correlated with the following Sept SIE anomalies when the mean ice thickness is large or late in the simulation when the sea ice is thin, and/or when internal variability increases. More importantly, periods with weak correlation between FSIAE and the Sept SIE dominate, suggesting that summer melt processes dominate over late winter preconditioning and May SIT anomalies. In general, we find that the coupling between the FSIAE and ice thickness anomalies along the Eurasian coastline is an ubiquitous feature of GCMs and that the relationship with the following Sept SIE is dependent on the mean Arctic sea ice thickness.

off-shore ice drift↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Impact of Large Scale Atmospheric and Cyclone Variability on the Sea-Ice Edge in the Labrador Sea

We study the temporal variability of the wintertime Labrador Sea ice area. The driving factors of these intraseasonal and interannual variations are related to large scale atmospheric variability and cyclone variability both of which can be characterized by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. We observe negative trends in the maximum sea-ice area over the past 40 years, and a positive correlation between the AO index and Labrador Sea ice area. Using satellite-derived daily ice area along with reanalysis-derived cyclones, turbulent flux, wind, humidity, air and sea temperature fields, we delve into the physical coupling mechanisms by which cyclones influence the position of the ice edge in the Labrador Sea throughout the winter.

Sea ice↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Late Winter Fram Strait Ice Export: Model vs Observations

Late winter coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline (referred to as the ice factory) – or the Fram Strait ice export, a proxy for coastal divergence in the ice factory – is a skillful predictor of the minimum sea ice extent (Williams et al., 2016; Brunette et al., 2018; Sesternikov and, 1979). Coastal divergence leads to the formation of coastal polynya where new ice grows but to a thickness that is not large enough to survive the following summer melt. This signal is then amplified by the ice albedo feedback and leads to more open water at the end of the summer melt season. In this thesis project, we will identify if this source of predictive skill in the seasonal forecast of the minimum sea ice extent is present in General Circulation Models, more precisely in the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, GFDL FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1 and the CanESM5. Since even small biases in the large-scale atmospheric circulation simulated by a model can short circuit this coupling between dominant modes of atmospheric variability (NAO and AO), coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline, Fram Strait ice export and therefore seasonal forecasting skill of the model, failure to reproduce this coupling observed in the real Arctic will be used to identify biases in GCM. Preliminary results show that subtle changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation leads to opposite statistical relationship between Fram Strait ice area export, coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline, and seasonal predictability of the minimum sea ice extent both in the CESM2-LE and the GISS-E2.1-G models. Differences are linked with the partitioning between recirculation within the Beaufort Gyre, ice exported through Fram Strait and ridging north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Sea ice↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Huygens Probe Entry, Descent, and Landing at Titan Simulation using Dragonfly Atmosphere Model

Dragonfly is a New Frontiers Program mission that will deliver a rotorcraft to Saturn's moon, Titan. This mission follows Huygens as the previous mission that successfully landed a vehicle on Titan. A flight mechanics simulation of Dragonfly's Entry, Descent, and Landing sequence has been developed using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II. The simulation incorporates several subsystem models, including aerodynamics, gravity, and mass properties, to fully capture the multi-body six degree of freedom dynamics. Among all the subsystem models that inform the Entry, Descent, and Landing dynamics, the atmosphere model of Titan is a critical component. The atmosphere model characterizes the density, temperature, pressure, and winds that the entry vehicle experiences during the descent. This impacts several aspects of the descent such as the peak heating, aerodynamics, parachute release conditions, the dynamics of the vehicle and parachutes, and the landing ellipse. In the course of developing Dragonfly, an updated model of the Titan atmosphere has been created corresponding to Dragonfly's arrival in the mid-2030s, approximately one Titan year after the Huygens mission successfully landed a probe on Titan. This work leverages previous work done to investigate Huygens EDL sequence to assess the atmosphere model developed for Dragonfly. This is done by utilizing the updated Titan atmosphere model, the Dragonfly atmosphere model, within the Huygens POST2-based flight simulation with the goal of characterizing the differences between the atmospheric models and assessing how the Dragonfly atmosphere model impacts Huygens entry dynamics.

Huygens↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dragonfly Mission Entry and Descent Modeling and Simulation Overview

Dragonfly is a New Frontiers Program mission, led by The Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, that will deliver a rotorcraft lander to Saturn’s moon, Titan. The focus of this work is to analyze the trajectory of the entry vehicle from cruise stage separation until lander separation. This analysis is done by the NASA Langley Research Center Entry, Descent, and Landing team using the Program to Optimize Trajectories II. This paper provides an overview of the current design and the robustness of the overall entry sequence using a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The work presented in this study includes the updated design, models, and analysis completed since the Dragonfly Entry, Descent, and Landing Mission Preliminary Design Review.

Simulation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Huygens Probe Entry, Descent, and Landing at Titan Simulation using Dragonfly Atmosphere Model

Dragonfly is a New Frontiers Program mission that will deliver a rotorcraft to Saturn's moon, Titan. This mission follows Huygens as the previous mission that successfully landed a vehicle on Titan. A flight mechanics simulation of Dragonfly's Entry, Descent, and Landing sequence has been developed using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II. The simulation incorporates several subsystem models, including aerodynamics, gravity, and mass properties, to fully capture the multi-body six degree of freedom dynamics. Among all the subsystem models that inform the Entry, Descent, and Landing dynamics, the atmosphere model of Titan is a critical component. The atmosphere model characterizes the density, temperature, pressure, and winds that the entry vehicle experiences during the descent. This impacts several aspects of the descent such as the peak heating, aerodynamics, parachute release conditions, the dynamics of the vehicle and parachutes, and the landing ellipse. In the course of developing Dragonfly, an updated model of the Titan atmosphere has been created corresponding to Dragonfly's arrival in the mid-2030s, approximately one Titan year after the Huygens mission successfully landed a probe on Titan. This work leverages previous work done to investigate Huygens EDL sequence to assess the atmosphere model developed for Dragonfly. This is done by utilizing the updated Titan atmosphere model, the Dragonfly atmosphere model, within the Huygens POST2-based flight simulation with the goal of characterizing the differences between the atmospheric models and assessing how the Dragonfly atmosphere model impacts Huygens entry dynamics.

Entry Descent Landing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dragonfly Mission Entry and Descent Modeling and Simulation Overview

Dragonfly is a New Frontiers Program mission, led by The Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, that will deliver a rotorcraft lander to Saturn’s moon, Titan. The focus of this work is to analyze the trajectory of the entry vehicle from cruise stage separation until lander separation. This analysis is done by the NASA Langley Research Center Entry, Descent, and Landing team using the Program to Optimize Trajectories II. This paper provides an overview of the current design and the robustness of the overall entry sequence using a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The work presented in this study includes the updated design, models, and analysis completed since the Dragonfly Entry, Descent, and Landing Mission Preliminary Design Review.

Simulation↗