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James, T. S.

Publications and source records attributed to James, T. S..

16 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Glacial isostatic stress shadowing by the Antarctic ice sheet

Numerous examples of fault slip that offset late Quaternary glacial deposits and bedrock polish support the idea that the glacial loading cycle causes earthquakes in the upper crust. A semianalytical scheme is presented for quantifying glacial and postglacial lithospheric fault reactivation using contemporary rock fracture prediction methods. It extends previous studies by considering differential Mogi-von Mises stresses, in addition to those resulting from a Coulomb analysis. The approach utilizes gravitational viscoelastodynamic theory and explores the relationships between ice mass history and regional seismicity and faulting in a segment of East Antarctica containing the great Antarctic Plate (Balleny Island) earthquake of 25 March 1998 (Mw 8.1). Predictions of the failure stress fields within the seismogenic crust are generated for differing assumptions about background stress orientation, mantle viscosity, lithospheric thickness, and possible late Holocene deglaciation for the D91 Antarctic ice sheet history. Similar stress fracture fields are predicted by Mogi-von Mises and Coulomb theory, thus validating previous rebound Coulomb analysis. A thick lithosphere, of the order of 150-240 km, augments stress shadowing by a late melting (middle-late Holocene) coastal East Antarctic ice complex and could cause present-day earthquakes many hundreds of kilometers seaward of the former Last Glacial Maximum grounding line.

Coulomb stress↗
NASA NTRS1998

Modern Uplift of the Transantarctic Mountains: Preliminary Results of an Autonomous GPS Array

An autonomous GPS array is being implemented in the Transantarctic Mountains, sponsored by NSF and NASA, for the purpose of measuring uplift resulting from post-glacial rebound (PGR). The rebound of the solid earth due to unloading of ice since the Last Glacial Maximum is expected to dominate the measured uplift for most of West Antarctica, dwarfing the signals due to present-day ice sheet mass balance changes and tectonic motion, as long as mantle viscosity is greater than about 10(exp 20) Pa-s. Predicted uplift patterns have been calculated for a range of model scenarios, which illustrate how the uplift pattern might distinguish between different-sized ice sheets and deglaciation histories as represented by the competing models. The scenarios considered by James and Ivins (1998) include ICE-3G, CLIMAP and a variation of the CLIMAP model by Denton et al. For these models, peak uplift rates occur in the Transantarctic Mountains, and differences between models is often large there. Thus, the Transantarctic Mountains are an ideal place to obtain uplift measurements to constrain deglaciation models.

Raymond, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Global Geodetic Signatures of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Four scenarios of present day Antarctic ice sheet mass change are developed from comprehensive reviews of the available glaciological and oceanographic evidence. The gridded scenarios predict widely varying contributions to secular sea level change (xi)ranging from -1.1 to 0.45 mm/yr, and predict polar motion m(with dot above)and time-varying low-degree gravitational coefficients J 1 that differ significantly from earlier estimates.

ice↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Effect of Antarctic Ice Mass Changes on Crustal Motion and Global Geodetic Observables

Glaciological estimates of the present-day ice mass balance of Antarctica vary widely, indicating the need for additional data to constrain mass-balance models. For example, recent studies find both a positive and a negative mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. Analysis of studies suggest that observations of present-day crustal motion, as obtained from a GPS survey could assist in defining models.

glaciology ice mass changes crustal motion geodeti↗
NASA NTRS1989

Late Pleistocene and Holocene Glacial Evolution and Isotasy in the Antarctic Peninsula

Employing a numerical model of Payne et al. that simulates the late-Pleistocene evolution of the former Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS) as a basis, we compute the present-day postglacial vertical isostasy of this region. The region may also experience significant mid-to late-Holocene glacial mass changes. Climate and oceanographic studies indicate that the ice mass imbalance of this region may be of larger magnitude that elsewhere in Antarctica. We compute the crustal response to these more recent ice mass changes and Holocene fluctuations with a simple gravitating Earth model consisting of an elastic lithosphere and a viscoelastic mantle (half-space). The calculations demonstrate that the present-day response could be significant, possibly at the level of about 4 - 11 mm/yr. Such significant crustal motion could be driven by glacial mass changes integrated over the last 1000 years if the regional mantle viscosity is below about 2 x 10(exp 20) Pa sec. In this lower viscosity range, present-day crustal motion has a significant phase-lagged character and the composite lithosphere/mantle viscoelastic response to late-Holocene events dominates over purely elastic (instantaneous) responses to present-day ice mass changes. For a higher mantle viscosity, greater than about 5 x 10(exp 20) Pa sec, the predicted present-day vertical isostasy is dominated by gravitational response to glacial unloading during the 18 - 6 kyr BP collapse of the APIS, and is analogous to that known to be occurring in the Gulf of Bothnia and Hudson Bay.

Ivins, E. R.↗