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Jensen, Michael

Publications and source records attributed to Jensen, Michael.

At least 19 records

Causal Directions Matter: How Environmental Factors Drive Convective Cloud Detrainment Heights

This study investigates how environmental factors influence the level of maximum detrainment (LMD) in deep convective clouds. Through a novel application of the Linear Non‐Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM), we discover causal structures between environmental variables and LMD, observed at six tropical sites operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. LiNGAM effectively identifies causal directions among variables of interest, revealing robust relationships such as those among the lifting condensation level (LCL), level of free convection (LFC), and convective inhibition (CIN), aligning with prior knowledge. Relative humidity is shown to directly influence LMD; however, this relationship exhibits strong nonlinearity and becomes difficult to detect when the contrast between oceanic and continental environments is excluded from the analysis. This study highlights the importance of establishing causal relationships before performing statistical inference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coastal-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) Science Plan

Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations regarding the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. Earth system (climate and weather) models have not yet been adapted to provide accurate predictions of climate and weather variability within cities, nor do they provide well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment. These limitations are largely due to limited field data available for testing and development of these models. We will deploy the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s first Mobile Facility (AMF1) to the mid-Atlantic region surrounding the city of Baltimore for the Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE). This deployment will create a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network including Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments – rural, urban, and bay. CoURAGE investigators will study the interactions among the Earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer, aerosols and atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each site, and examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. This study will determine the degree to which Baltimore’s atmospheric environment depends on interactive feedbacks in the atmospheric system and the degree to which conditions in Baltimore depend on the surrounding environment. Some topics of interest include how urban land management exacerbates heat waves, the impact of regional mesoscale winds (nocturnal jet, bay breeze) on urban air pollution and cloud cover, and the impact of the urban heat island and aerosol production on heavy precipitation events. Understanding this integrated coast-urban-rural system quantitatively and with good accuracy and precision is critical to informing climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the city of Baltimore. The understanding gained should be applicable to many similar coastal, mid-latitude urban centers. Another important objective of CoURAGE is to improve the representation of the climate of coastal cities in Earth systems models (ESMs). CoURAGE investigators will use the observations to test current ESMs, identify weaknesses and work towards improved simulations of this complex environment. The ARM core facility will be deployed in the city of Baltimore, complementing the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE urban integrated field laboratory (UIFL). Ancillary sites will be deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore, and to the southern end of Kent Island within Chesapeake Bay. The fourth node will be a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland by Howard University and the Maryland Department of the Environment. Measurements will be conducted for one year, starting in December of 2024. There will be two intensive operational periods (IOPs), one in summer and one in winter, when the ancillary sites will be enhanced with additional balloon launches, tethered balloon system (TBS) operation, and added atmospheric composition measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variational data augmentation for a learning-based granular predictive model of power outages

As the trend in climate change continues, extreme weather events are expected to occur with increasing frequency and severity and pose a significant threat to the electric power infrastructure. Regardless of the efforts a utility puts towards hardening the grid, storm-induced damage to the utility assets such as cables and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are particularly vulnerable to such events is unavoidable. Access to a highly granular, in space and time, outage forecasting tool with long lead times (i.e., days ahead) will enhance the efficiency of service restoration efforts. Here, in this study, we propose to develop and implement a multi-model framework as an operational tool based on a granular and multi-day outage forecasting model using operational numerical weather prediction model forecasts and detailed component outage information. An innovative two-layered recurrent neural network, i.e., a long-short-term-memory (LSTM)-based variational autoencoder (VAE) framework and a sliding window are used to address the uneven distribution of different types of weather events and make better use of the time-series data. Case studies are performed to demonstrate the performance of the new framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summary of October 2023 ARM User Executive Committee Meeting

The User Executive Committee (UEC) provides objective, timely feedback to the leadership of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility with respect to the user experience. The UEC held a hybrid meeting at the ARM Southern Great Plains Observatory in October 2023. Four goals were identified for this meeting: (1) to take an in-depth look at the ARM user facility, (2) to provide actionable items to ARM within the context of the UEC subgroups, (3) to develop new user engagement strategies, and (4) to see an ARM facility in operation, providing valuable context for future UEC discussions. The outcomes of the successful meeting are highlighted in this report. The UEC is grateful to ARM for facilitating this in-person meeting and to our gracious hosts at SGP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Science Plan for the Deployment of the Third ARM Mobile Facility to the Southeastern United States at the Bankhead National Forest, Alabama (AMF3 BNF)

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held a workshop for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (Mather and Voyles 2013) user facility to discuss critical climate challenges and locations where key ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) observational assets could impact Earth system modeling (ESM). As an outcome, the southeast United States (SE U.S.) was identified as a high-priority region to target climate-process studies that promote a deeper understanding of the climate system and bolster ARM interactions with the community to drive ESM advancement. The DOE ARM user facility is a globally recognized leader in deploying and operating strategically located observation sites around the world for studying the properties of aerosols and clouds and their interaction with radiation, precipitation, and the Earth’s surface. In partnering with the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ARM solicited a multi-agency Site Science Team approach to provide input and close interaction with ARM management towards a successful SE U.S. deployment of the ARM third Mobile Facility (AMF3) (Miller et al. 2016). These efforts included identifying key locations, science drivers and instruments, and measurement strategies to address the wider climate-process needs and ESM improvement. Community input served a vital role in establishing, refining, and informing the relevant drivers and decisions regarding this AMF3 deployment. The team has identified Northern Alabama (N. AL) as regionally representative to unlock the key opportunities that will improve our understanding and model representation of aerosol, cloud, and land-surface processes and their couplings in the SE U.S. A defining aspect of the AMF3 deployment is its commitment to long-term (anticipated five-year) observations to mitigate potential seasonal-to-annual variability that often limits appropriate attribution of phenomena to local or larger-scale processes. The proposed location may leverage nearby surface networks and multi-agency and partner assets to enrich this multi-year deployment. One motivation is to understand the role of spatiotemporal variability (thermodynamic, land-surface) across aspects of the climate system, with our AMF3 team anticipating future demands on characterizing the relationships between local-to-regional cloud development and surface processes across a diverse patchwork of natural, managed, and urban landscapes as found throughout the N. AL regions. The main site targets an intact, representative, forested region – the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) – underscoring further team commitment to regionally important land-atmosphere two-way interactive studies “from the canopy to the clouds”, with enhanced tower instrumentation augmenting traditional ARM capabilities adjacent to this site. Multiple supplemental sites will also be distributed across this region, prioritizing added needs for biodiversity. Anticipated high-priority cloud science themes will target N. AL as a regional SE U.S. hotbed for high-impact weather, convective cloud onset, and shallow-to-deep cloud transitioning. Anticipated aerosol drivers will focus on chemical processes that control the evolution of organic aerosol, the seasonality and spatial distribution of water vapor and particle-phase water, and its role on aerosol optical properties. Anticipated land-atmosphere drivers consider the two-way feedbacks between surface influence on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties and the associated radiative impacts on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. Emphasis will include the study of the impact of surface processes on aerosols via precursor emission, and on clouds via moisture flux and thermal development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Science Plan for the Deployment of the Third ARM Mobile Facility to the Southeastern United States at the Bankhead National Forest, Alabama (AMF3 BNF)

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held a workshop for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (Mather and Voyles 2013) user facility to discuss critical climate challenges and locations where key ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) observational assets could impact Earth system modeling (ESM). As an outcome, the southeast United States (SE U.S.) was identified as a high-priority region to target climate-process studies that promote a deeper understanding of the climate system and bolster ARM interactions with the community to drive ESM advancement. The DOE ARM user facility is a globally recognized leader in deploying and operating strategically located observation sites around the world for studying the properties of aerosols and clouds and their interaction with radiation, precipitation, and the Earth’s surface. In partnering with the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ARM solicited a multi-agency Site Science Team approach to provide input and close interaction with ARM management towards a successful SE U.S. deployment of the ARM third Mobile Facility (AMF3) (Miller et al. 2016). These efforts included identifying key locations, science drivers and instruments, and measurement strategies to address the wider climate-process needs and ESM improvement. Community input served a vital role in establishing, refining, and informing the relevant drivers and decisions regarding this AMF3 deployment. The team has identified Northern Alabama (N. AL) as regionally representative to unlock the key opportunities that will improve our understanding and model representation of aerosol, cloud, and land surface processes and their couplings in the SE U.S. A defining aspect of the AMF3 deployment is its commitment to long-term (anticipated five-year) observations to mitigate potential seasonal-to-annual variability that often limits appropriate attribution of phenomena to local or larger-scale processes. The proposed location may leverage nearby surface networks and multi-agency and partner assets to enrich this multi-year deployment. One motivation is to understand the role of spatiotemporal variability (thermodynamic, land-surface) across aspects of the climate system, with our AMF3 team anticipating future demands on characterizing the relationships between local-to-regional cloud development and surface processes across a diverse patchwork of natural, managed, and urban landscapes as found throughout the N. AL regions. The main site targets an intact, representative, forested region – the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) – underscoring further team commitment to regionally important land atmosphere two-way interactive studies “from the canopy to the clouds”, with enhanced tower instrumentation augmenting traditional ARM capabilities adjacent to this site. Multiple supplemental sites will also be distributed across this region, prioritizing added needs for biodiversity. Anticipated high-priority cloud science themes will target N. AL as a regional SE U.S. hotbed for high-impact weather, convective cloud onset, and shallow to-deep cloud transitioning. Anticipated aerosol drivers will focus on chemical processes that control the evolution of organic aerosol, the seasonality and spatial distribution of water vapor and particle-phase water, and its role on aerosol optical properties. Anticipated land atmosphere drivers consider the two-way feedbacks between surface influence on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties and the associated radiative impacts on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. Emphasis will include the study of the impact of surface processes on aerosols via precursor emission, and on clouds via moisture flux and thermal development.

Doppler lidar, aerosols, convection↗

TRACER Carbonaceous Aerosols Thrust – University of California, Davis Field Campaign Report

The broader U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign aims to increase our understanding of convective cloud life cycles and aerosol-convection interactions. Our TRACER Carbonaceous Aerosols Thrust-University of California, Davis (TRACER-CAT-UCDavis) study complemented these broader aims by characterizing and quantifying the optical properties and composition of carbonaceous aerosols during part of the TRACER intensive sampling period (July 1- July 31, 2022) at the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) main site (M1) in La Porte, Texas. Our measurements complemented the suite of instrumentation already provided by the AMF1, expanding the capabilities through deployment of unique, state-of-the-science instrumentation. The instrumentation included: (i) two cavity-attenuated phase shift spectroscopy single-scatter albedo (CAPS-SSA) instruments operating at 530 nm and 630 nm, and that were modified to characterize particle light absorption, extinction, and scattering at elevated humidities; (ii) the UC Davis dual-wavelength cavity ringdown-photoacoustic spectrometer (CRD-PAS), which characterizes dry particle extinction and absorption at 405 nm and 532 nm; (iii) a soot particle aerosol mass spectrometer (SP-AMS) that operated in “laser only” mode that characterized the size-dependent compositions of black carbon (BC)-containing particles; (v) a thermal denuder, to remove coatings on particles; and (vi) a scanning electrical mobility sizer (SEMS), to characterize particle mobility diameters from 10-1300 nm. Our measurements occurred alongside complementary observations made by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the TRACER-CAT-LANL study, including a humidified CAPS-SSA instrument operating at 450 nm. Our primary scientific interest is in understanding the relationship between particle composition and light absorption, with a particular focus on the influence of water uptake. While it is known that coatings on BC can enhance absorption, the extent to which this occurs in the atmosphere and the specific role that water plays as a coating remain unclear. The TRACER-CAT-UCDavis measurements were made with near-complete coverage for the CRD-PAS, SP-AMS, and SEMS throughout the intensive period. The UC Davis humidified CAPS-SSA instruments had significant challenges with operation owing to the demanding conditions (large temperature fluctuations, high humidity), exacerbated by supply chain issues that delayed resolution of these challenges. However, the humidified CAPS-SSA instrument operated by LANL operated throughout the intensive period with near-complete coverage. The dry light extinction measurements from the CRD-PAS measurements and the LANL CAPS-SSA exhibited a good correlation, although the CAPS-SSA systematically measured greater extinction values than expected. While all instruments, with the exception of an aerodynamic particle sizer (APS), measured behind a common particulate matter (PM)2.5 μm cyclone, the greater extinction measured by the LANL CAPS-SSA compared to the CRD-PAS may have resulted from different losses of larger particles in the sampling lines from the cyclone to the instruments; the tubing length was shorter from the cyclone to the LANL CAPS-SSA, consistent with this idea. A summary of the TRACER-CAT-UCDavis measurements, along with some of the TRACER-CAT-LANL measurements, are shown in the figure below. Notably, there were periods when the contributions of presumed dust were substantial and even dominated the observed light extinction and absorption. Also, there was a clear shift in the behavior of submicron particles from before July 16, 2022 to after, with the prior period exhibiting regular episodes of new particle formation and the latter period exhibiting rapid variations in the concentrations of small particles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stereo Camera Deployment in Support of TRACER (Field Campaign Report)

An improved understanding of the salient environmental controls on cloud formation, evolution, and eventual dissipation is critical to address ongoing challenges with cloud process and parameterization representations in global climate and Earth system models. One goal for the recent U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) campaign was to collect a comprehensive data set that enabled such convective cloud process studies and key demonstrations for those controls that influenced cloud life cycle (i.e., aerosols, thermodynamics) in the Houston, Texas region. To help accomplish this, ARM instrumentation during TRACER was tasked with tracking a large number of individual, isolated convective cells – and to follow the evolution of these cells at high spatiotemporal resolution to characterize changes in cloud dynamic and microphysical properties. Since Houston experiences a range of convective clouds, it was known that the standard ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) instruments may not be sufficient to completely document initiating, transient, or dissipating low- or shallow-cloud behaviors that were also expected during this campaign (in terms of sensitivity, resolution, and/or operational availability). As one partial solution, a supplemental stereo camera deployment (this sub-campaign) was requested to augment the ARM AMF instrumentation to better address shallow and shallow-to-deep transitional types of cloud process drivers during TRACER (ARM stereo cameras for clouds [STEREOCAM]; Romps and Öktem 2018). The primary scientific focus was the relationships between cloud properties and the ambient conditions, which points to several key TRACER science questions including: ‘What is the relationship between cloud size or updraft intensity to the environmental wind shear and/or humidity?’ Overall, the ARM TRACER stereo camera deployment demonstrated unique effectiveness in observing a wide range of critical shallow, congestus, and transitioning or time-evolving cloud characteristics. The data sets from these cameras include information on the clouds' horizontal dimensions, elevations, and depths, while also enabling potential products for cloud initiation and dissipation rates, and vertical velocities. Stereo cameras simultaneously inform on cloud life cycle stage and spatial properties such as cloud fractional coverage, which should provide complementary information for ARM users when combined with TRACER cloud radars, lidar, and/or other profiling sensors. Moreover, camera products offer large-eddy simulation (LES),-scale-appropriate cloud coverage, depth, and spatial variability estimates, while opening additional avenues to challenge difficult process questions on cloud updrafts/entrainment and their covariability with environmental controls such as wind shear and humidity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Convective Parameters Derived from Radiosonde Data (SONDEPARAM) Value-Added Product Report

Radiosondes provide fundamental observations of the vertical profile of atmospheric state (pressure, temperature, humidity, and winds), with important implications for subsequent studies on environmental controls on cloud conditions. Within convective cloud environments, there is an increasing demand for additional value-added products (VAPs) to facilitate the use of U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility radiosonde data sets. Such VAPs should provide quick and reliable estimates for several standard radiosonde parameters or quantities of interest using common assumptions, as well as open, flexible code for visualization and user interaction. The Convective Parameters Derived from Radiosonde Data (SONDEPARAM) VAP will apply several robust algorithms used in Wang et al. (2020) for the calculation of useful radiosonde convective cloud parameters, including the convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and other convective parameters, for several different assumptions regarding the initial parcel characteristics (i.e., surface-based, most unstable, mixed layer). These ARM VAP codes are developed in open, flexible Python formats, with the intention that these parameters/calculations will be incorporated into traditional ARM quick-look radiosonde plotting, yet associated with user-available codes for ease in user reproduction and assumption modification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards Energy-Positive Buildings through a Quality-Matched Energy Flow Strategy

Current strategies for net-zero buildings favor envelopes with minimized aperture ratios and limiting of solar gains through reduced glazing transmittance and emissivity. This load-reduction approach precludes strategies that maximize on-site collection of solar energy, which could increase opportunities for net-zero electricity projects. To better leverage solar resources, a whole-building strategy is proposed, referred to as “Quality-Matched Energy Flows” (or Q-MEF): capturing, transforming, buffering, and transferring irradiance on a building’s envelope—and energy derived from it—into distributed end-uses. A mid-scale commercial building was modeled in three climates with a novel Building-Integrated, Transparent, Concentrating Photovoltaic and Thermal fenestration technology (BITCoPT), thermal storage and circulation at three temperature ranges, adsorption chillers, and auxiliary heat pumps. BITCoPT generated electricity and collected thermal energy at high efficiencies while transmitting diffuse light and mitigating excess gains and illuminance. The balance of systems satisfied cooling and heating demands. Relative to baselines with similar glazing ratios, net electricity use decreased 71% in a continental climate and 100% or more in hot-arid and subtropical-moderate climates. Total EUI decreased 35%, 83%, and 52%, and peak purchased electrical demands decreased up to 6%, 32%, and 20%, respectively (with no provisions for on-site electrical storage). Decreases in utility services costs were also noted. These results suggest that with further development of electrification the Q-MEF strategy could contribute to energy-positive behavior for projects with similar typology and climate profiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

sondeparam

The SondeParam VAP will calculate useful radiosonde convective cloud parameters including the convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), LCL, LFC, LNB, and other parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

KAZRCORMD

For the Ka ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) data stream, kazrcormd.c1 (md=moderate sensitivity), produces significant detection mask, corrects reflectivity for gaseous attenuation, and dealiases mean Doppler velocity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

microbasekaplus.c1

This microbasekaplus datastream is produced by re-writed micorbaseka vap (microbasekaplus) in python under ADI framewrok, and added uncertainties for the microphysics. The original Microbase VAP was developed in 2002. The primary purpose of producing this VAP was to provide the required microphysical values for input to the Broad Band Heating Rate Profiles (BBHRP) VAP in order to generate estimations of radiative heating rates. It served the Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIBPE) VAP in the capacity of providing baseline cloud microphysical values as input. Microbase produces cloud microphysical properties based on cloud radar measurements taken at all fixed ARM sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

KAZRCORHI

For the Ka ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) data stream, kazrcorhi.c1 (hi=high sensitivity), produces significant detection mask, corrects reflectivity for gaseous attenuation, and dealiases mean Doppler velocity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

KAZRCORGE

For the Ka ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) data stream, kazrcorge.c1 (ge=general sensitivity), produces significant detection mask, corrects reflectivity for gaseous attenuation, and dealiases mean Doppler velocity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) Field Campaign Report

The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) was conducted successfully between 1 December 2019 and 31 May 2020 around the Norwegian Sea. COMBLE deployed the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) first Mobile Facility (AMF1) along the coast of northern Scandinavia, at an arctic latitude (70°N), and an array of additional instruments on Bear Island (75°N) in the Norwegian Sea. The instruments deployed at these two sites collected a large array of in situ and remote-sensing observations of atmospheric conditions, clouds, precipitation, and aerosol. The main objective of COMBLE is to quantify the properties of shallow convective clouds that develop as part of an air-mass transformation process when cold air blows over open water. The two COMBLE sites are located at ~1,200 km and ~500 km from the cold source, i.e., arctic ice edge, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗