Enhanced probabilistic contingency analysis considering fast ramping events of renewable generation
Not Available
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Engineering topics
Jin, Chunlian
Publications and source records attributed to Jin, Chunlian.
An Investigation of Potential Intermittency Induced Outage Modes for Wind Generation
In a deterministic contingency analysis (DCA), renewable generation such as wind is modeled similar to a conventional generator. In the current practices of a probabilistic contingency analysis (PCA), the outage parameters for a renewable generator reflect only failures of its parts. Intermittency due to wind speed changes or cloud cover may cause renewable generation to ramp up or down within a short time period and, after the transient is finished, stay at a certain generation level before a new ramp starts. A fast ramp-down transient can last for some time and thus, have an effect similar to a failure or de-rated generation of a conventional generator. This paper investigates potential outage modes that are induced by the intermittency of renewable generation, as well as the modeling and parameterization of such outage modes in the PCA framework. Historical time-series wind generation data are used in this study to extract different types of transients and perform statistical analyses to obtain input data such that the intermittency induced outages (IIOs) can be included in PCA.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
An Energy Storage Assessment: Using Optimal Control Strategies to Capture Multiple Services
This paper presents a methodology for evaluating benefits of battery storage for multiple grid applications, including energy arbitrage, balancing service, capacity value, distribution system equipment deferral, and outage mitigation. In the proposed method, at each hour, a look-ahead optimization is first formulated and solved to determine battery base operating point. The minute by minute simulation is then performed to simulate the actual battery operation. This methodology is used to assess energy storage alternatives in Puget Sound Energy System. Different battery storage candidates are simulated for a period of one year to assess different value streams and overall benefits, as part of a financial feasibility evaluation of battery storage projects.
Power system economics, energy storge system, batt↗
Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)
The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization. Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.
integrated regional modeling↗
Control and Size Energy Storage for Managing Energy balance of Variable Generation Resources
This paper presents control algorithms and sizing strategies for using energy storage to manage energy balance for variable generation resources. The control objective is to minimize the hourly generation imbalance between the actual and the scheduled generation of the wind farm. Three control algorithms are compared: tracking power imbalance, post-compensation, and pre-compensation. Measurement data from a wind farm located in South-central Washington State are used in the study. The results show that tracking power imbalance yields the best performance by keeping the hourly energy imbalances zero. However, the energy storage system (ESS) will be significantly oversized. Post-compensation reduces power rating of the ESS but the hourly imbalance may not be kept as zero when large and long-lasting energy imbalances occur. A linear regression forecasting algorithm is developed for the pre-compensation algorithm to pre-charge or pre-discharge the ESS based on predicted energy imbalances. The performance comparison shows that the pre-compensation method significantly reduces the size of the ESS while maintaining satisfactory performance.
ENERGY MANAGEMENT↗
Evaluation of Production Cost Savings from Consolidation of Balancing Authorities in the US Western Interconnection under High Wind and Solar Penetration
This paper introduces a comprehensive analysis to quantify the potential savings in production cost due to consolidation of 32 US western interconnection Balancing Authorities (BAs). Three simulation scenarios are developed: current Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) BAs structure, full copper-sheet consolidation, and full consolidation with transmission congestion considered. The study uses WECC Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC) model that was developed for the year 2020. The model assumes 8% wind and 3% solar energy penetration as percentage of total WECC demand in 2020. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to assess the impact of transmission hurdle rates between WECC BAs on potential benefits. The study shows savings that ranges from $400 Million (2.4% of total one year production cost) to $600 Million (3.2%) per year in thermal units production cost due to consolidation can be achieved. The copper sheet consolidation scenario shows an extra savings of $240 Million (1.4%) per year.
Balancing authorities, hurdle rates, economic disp↗
Duke Energy Photovoltaic Integration Study: Carolinas Service Areas
Solar energy collected using photovoltaic (PV) technology is a clean and renewable energy source that offers multiple benefits to the electric utility industry and its customers, such as cost predictability, reduced emissions, and loss reduction by distributed installations. Renewable energy goals established in North Carolina Senate Bill 3 (SB3), in combination with the state tax credit and decreases in the cost of energy from PV panels, have resulted in rapid solar power penetration within the Carolinas services areas of Duke Energy. Continued decreases in PV prices are expected to lead to greater PV penetration rates than currently required in SB3. Despite the potential benefits, significant penetration of PV energy is of concern to the utility industry because of its impact on operating reliability and integration cost to customers, and equally important, how any additional costs may be allocated to different customer groups. Some of these impacts might become limiting factors for PV energy, especially growing distributed generation installed at customer sites. Recognizing the importance of renewable energy developments for a sustainable energy future and economic growth, Duke Energy has commissioned this study to simulate the effects of high-PV penetration rates and to initiate the process of quantifying the impacts. The objective of the study is to inform resource plans, guide operation improvements, and drive infrastructure investments for a steady and smooth transition to a new energy mix that provides optimal values to customers. The study team consists of experts from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Power Costs, Inc. (PCI), Clean Power Research (CPR), Alstom Grid, and Duke Energy. PNNL, PCI, and CPR performed the study on generation impacts; Duke Energy modeled the transmission cases; and distribution simulations were conducted by Alstom Grid. PNNL analyzed the results from each work stream and produced the report.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Assessment of Energy Storage Alternatives in the Puget Sound Energy System
As part of an ongoing study co-funded by the Bonneville Power Administration, under its Technology Innovation Grant Program, and the U.S. Department of Energy, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed an approach and modeling tool for assessing the net benefits of using energy storage located close to the customer in the distribution grid to manage demand. PNNL in collaboration with PSE and Primus Power has evaluated the net benefits of placing a zinc bromide battery system at two locations in the PSE system (Baker River / Rockport and Bainbridge Island). Energy storage can provide a number of benefits to the utility through the increased flexibility it provides to the grid system. Applications evaluated in the assessment include capacity value, balancing services, arbitrage, distribution deferral and outage mitigation. This report outlines the methodology developed for this study and Phase I results.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Assessment of Energy Storage Alternatives in the Puget Sound Energy System Volume 2: Energy Storage Evaluation Tool
This volume presents the battery storage evaluation tool developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), which is used to evaluate benefits of battery storage for multiple grid applications, including energy arbitrage, balancing service, capacity value, distribution system equipment deferral, and outage mitigation. This tool is based on the optimal control strategies to capture multiple services from a single energy storage device. In this control strategy, at each hour, a look-ahead optimization is first formulated and solved to determine battery base operating point. The minute by minute simulation is then performed to simulate the actual battery operation. This volume provide background and manual for this evaluation tool.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Towards More Transmission Asset Utilization through Real-time Path Rating
Ratings of transmission paths, typically determined in an offline environment, are static and tend to be conservative, leading to underutilization of transmission assets, higher costs of system operation and renewable energy integration, and lower efficiency and savings. With the ever-increasing transmission congestion costs and new challenges from renewable integration, increasing transfer capacity of existing transmission lines is essential. Real-time path rating provides a promising approach to enabling additional power transfer capability and fully utilizing transfer capability. In this paper, the feasibility of real-time path rating is investigated. Several promising technologies to achieve real-time path rating are discussed. Various benefits that can be expected from real-time path rating, such as increased transfer capability and reduced total generation cost, are demonstrated through simulations conducted on the Western Electricity Coordinating Council system model.
Diao, Ruisheng↗
Analysis of Benefits of an Energy Imbalance Market in the NWPP
The Northwest Power Pool (NWPP) Market Assessment Committee (MC) Initiative, which was officially launched on March 19, 2012, set out to explore a range of alternatives that could help the Balancing Authorities and scheduling utilities in the NWPP area address growing operational and commercial challenges affecting the regional power system. The MC formed an Analytical Team with technical representatives from each of the member Balancing Areas in the NWPP and with staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). This Analytical Team was instructed to conduct extensive studies of intra-hour operation of the NWPP system in the year 2020 and of the NWPP region with 14,671 MW of wind penetration. The effort utilized a sub-hourly production cost model (the PLEXOS® computer model) that inputs data from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC)-wide Production Cost Model (PCM) to evaluate potential production cost savings. The Analytical Team was given two general options to evaluate: •Energy Imbalance Market (EIM): establishment of an automated, organized NWPP area market for economically supplying energy imbalance within the hour. •Enhanced Market-Operational Tools (EMT) that might augment or replace an EIM. The Analytical The Analytical Team built on the WECC-wide PCM data from prior work done in the WECC and carried forward the evolution of the original WECC Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC) 2020 PC0 data base. A large number of modifications and improvements were made to this case and the data were subjected to extensive review by the team members to improve the model representation of the Northwest (NW). MC meetings that were open to the public were held for interested parties to review and provide input to the study. Results for the test, base, and sensitivity case studies performed by the MC Initiative Analytical Team indicate that there are a wide range of benefits that could be obtained from the operation of an EIM in the NWPP depending on what assumptions are made. The instructions from the MC were to determine a "minimum high confidence" range of potential benefits. The results for the Base Case indicate that the EIM benefits ranged from approximately $40 million to $70 million in annual savings from the operation of an EIM in the NWPP footprint. A number of additional relevant sensitivity cases were performed, including low and high water conditions, low and high natural gas prices, and various flex reserve requirements, resource operations, and amounts of resource capability held back during the preschedule period. Along with the results for the Base Case, the results for these studies yielded EIM benefits that clustered within the range of $70 to $80 million dollars per year with potential benefits ranging from approximately $125 million to as little as $17 million per year. Because the design and operation of an EIM could enable participating Balancing Authorities (BAs) to collectively lower the quantity of resources they must carry to meet within-hour balancing needs, a sensitivity case was also performed to analyze the impact that such reductions might have on the benefits from an EIM. The results for this sensitivity case indicate that such reductions could increase the benefits from the operation of an EIM in the NWPP into the range of approximately $130 million to $160 million per year. Also, a sensitivity case for a WECC-wide EIM was performed with the results indicating that the potential benefits to the NWPP could increase into the range of $197 million to $233 million per year. While there may be potential reliability benefits from the coordinated dispatch process underlying the operation of an EIM, reliability benefits from an EIM were out of the scope of this study. The EIM benefit analyses that were performed by the Analytical Team are provided in this report.
Power markets, NWPP, Energy Imbalance, EIM, Renewa↗
NV Energy Electricity Storage Valuation
This study examines how grid-level electricity storage may benet the operations of NV Energy in 2020, and assesses whether those benets justify the cost of the storage system. In order to determine how grid-level storage might impact NV Energy, an hourly production cost model of the Nevada Balancing Authority (\BA") as projected for 2020 was built and used for the study. Storage facilities were found to add value primarily by providing reserve. Value provided by the provision of time-of-day shifting was found to be limited. If regulating reserve from storage is valued the same as that from slower ramp rate resources, then it appears that a reciprocating engine generator could provide additional capacity at a lower cost than a pumped storage hydro plant or large storage capacity battery system. In addition, a 25-MW battery storage facility would need to cost $\$$650/kW or less in order to produce a positive Net Present Value (NPV). However, if regulating reserve provided by storage is considered to be more useful to the grid than that from slower ramp rate resources, then a grid-level storage facility may have a positive NPV even at today's storage system capital costs. The value of having storage provide services beyond reserve and time-of-day shifting was not assessed in this study, and was therefore not included in storage cost-benefit calculations.
Electrical Energy Storage↗
NV Energy Electricity Storage Valuation
This study examines how grid-level electricity storage may benefit the operations of NV Energy, and assesses whether those benefits are likely to justify the cost of the storage system. To determine the impact of grid-level storage, an hourly production cost model of the Nevada Balancing Authority ("BA") as projected for 2020 was created. Storage was found to add value primarily through the provision of regulating reserve. Certain storage resources were found likely to be cost-effective even without considering their capacity value, as long as their effectiveness in providing regulating reserve was taken into account. Giving fast resources credit for their ability to provide regulating reserve is reasonable, given the adoption of FERC Order 755 ("Pay-for-performance"). Using a traditional five-minute test to determine how much a resource can contribute to regulating reserve does not adequately value fast-ramping resources, as the regulating reserve these resources can provide is constrained by their installed capacity. While an approximation was made to consider the additional value provided by a fast-ramping resource, a more precise valuation requires an alternate regulating reserve methodology. Developing and modeling a new regulating reserve methodology for NV Energy was beyond the scope of this study, as was assessing the incremental value of distributed storage.
Ellison, James F.↗
NV Energy Large-Scale Photovoltaic Integration Study: Intra-Hour Dispatch and AGC Simulation
The uncertainty and variability with photovoltaic (PV) generation make it very challenging to balance power system generation and load, especially under high penetration cases. Higher reserve requirements and more cycling of conventional generators are generally anticipated for large-scale PV integration. However, whether the existing generation fleet is flexible enough to handle the variations and how well the system can maintain its control performance are difficult to predict. The goal of this project is to develop a software program that can perform intra-hour dispatch and automatic generation control (AGC) simulation, by which the balancing operations of a system can be simulated to answer the questions posed above. The simulator, named Electric System Intra-Hour Operation Simulator (ESIOS), uses the NV Energy southern system as a study case, and models the system’s generator configurations, AGC functions, and operator actions to balance system generation and load. Actual dispatch of AGC generators and control performance under various PV penetration levels can be predicted by running ESIOS. With data about the load, generation, and generator characteristics, ESIOS can perform similar simulations and assess variable generation integration impacts for other systems as well. This report describes the design of the simulator and presents the study results showing the PV impacts on NV Energy real-time operations.
Energy↗
EVALUATING THE COMPETITIVENESS OF ENERGY STORAGE FOR MITIGATING THE STOCHASTIC, VARIABLE ATTRIBUTES OF RENEWABLES ON THE GRID
Energy storage has recently attracted significant interest as an enabling technology for integrating stochastic, variable renewable power into the electric grid. To meet the renewable portfolio standards targets imposed by 29 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, electricity production from wind technology has increased significantly. At the same time, wind turbines, like many renewables, produce power in a manner that is stochastic, variable, and non-dispatchable. These attributes introduce challenges to generation scheduling and the provision of ancillary services. To study the impacts of the stochastic variability of wind on regional grid operation and the role that energy storage could play to mitigate these impacts, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed a series of linked, complex techno-economic-environmental models to address these key questions: a. What are the future expanded balancing requirements necessary to accommodate enhanced wind turbine capacity, so as to meet the renewable portfolio standards in 2020? Specific analyses are conducted for the four North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) western sub-regions. b. What are the most cost-effective technological solutions for providing either fast ramping generation or energy storage to serve these balancing requirements? PNNL applied a stochastic approach to assess the future, expanded balancing requirements for the four western sub-regions with high wind penetration in 2020. The estimated balancing requirements are quantified for four sub-regions: Arizona-New Mexico-Nevada (AZNMNV), California-Mexico (CAMC), Northwest Power Pool (NWPP), and Rocky Mountain Power Pool (RMPP). Model results indicate that the new balancing requirements will span a spectrum of frequencies, from minute-to-minute variability (intra-hour balancing) to those indicating cycles over several hours (inter-hour balancing). The sharp ramp rates in the intra-hour balancing are of significant concern to grid operators. Consequently, this study focuses on analyzing the intra-hour balancing needs. A detailed, life-cycle cost (LCC) modeling effort was used to assess the cost competitiveness of different technologies to address the future, intra-hour balancing requirements. Technological solutions considered include combustion turbines, sodium sulfur (NaS) batteries, lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries, pumped-hydro energy storage (PHES), compressed air energy storage (CAES), flywheels, redox flow batteries, and demand response (DR). Hybrid concepts are also evaluated. For each technology, distinct power and energy capacity requirements are estimated. LCC results indicate that the most cost competitive technologies include electrochemical energy storage and Na-S and Li-Ion. This finding is consistent among the four sub-regions and is generally applicable to other regions.
arbitrage↗
National Assessment of Energy Storage for Grid Balancing and Arbitrage: Phase 1, WECC
To examine the role that energy storage could play in mitigating the impacts of the stochastic variability of wind generation on regional grid operation, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) examined a hypothetical 2020 grid scenario in which additional wind generation capacity is built to meet renewable portfolio standard targets in the Western Interconnection. PNNL developed a stochastic model for estimating the balancing requirements using historical wind statistics and forecasting error, a detailed engineering model to analyze the dispatch of energy storage and fast-ramping generation devices for estimating size requirements of energy storage and generation systems for meeting new balancing requirements, and financial models for estimating the life-cycle cost of storage and generation systems in addressing the future balancing requirements for sub-regions in the Western Interconnection. Evaluated technologies include combustion turbines, sodium sulfur (Na-S) batteries, lithium ion batteries, pumped-hydro energy storage, compressed air energy storage, flywheels, redox flow batteries, and demand response. Distinct power and energy capacity requirements were estimated for each technology option, and battery size was optimized to minimize costs. Modeling results indicate that in a future power grid with high-penetration of renewables, the most cost competitive technologies for meeting balancing requirements include Na-S batteries and flywheels.
energy storage↗
Sizing Energy Storage to Accommodate High Penetration of Variable Energy Resources
Abstract—The variability and non-dispatchable nature of wind and solar energy production presents substantial challenges for maintaining system balance. Depending on the economic considerations, energy storage can be a viable solution to balance energy production with consumption. This paper proposes to use discrete Fourier transform to decompose the required balancing power into different time-varying periodic components, i.e., intra-week, intra-day, intra-hour, and real-time. Each component can be used to quantify the maximum energy storage requirement for different types of energy storage. This requirement is the physical limit that could be theoretically accommodated by a power system. The actual energy storage capacity can be further quantified within this limit by the cost-benefit analysis (future work). The proposed approach has been successfully used in a study conducted for the 2030 Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system model. Some results of this study are provided in this paper.
Makarov, Yuri V.↗
Modeling Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies on Power Grids
This paper describes a modeling approach that simulate the impacts of different climate change mitigation technologies on power grids for power system planning purposes. Because the historical data is less credible when new technologies are being deployed to the system, it is then critical to model them to address their impacts. This paper illustrated how to integrate modeling results obtained from different modeling tools to give a reasonable forecast of the future. Building simulation tools, distribution power grid modeling tools, and power system planning tools are used to model and aggregate the impacts from the end-use to the system level. Electricity generation, production cost, emission, and transmission congestions are used to quantify the influence of different mitigation technologies. Modeling results have shown that the cross-discipline modeling approach provided the modeler with the necessary time resolution and input details to address the variables that influence the modeling results. Different modeling issues are also addressed in the paper.
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