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Johnson, Nicholas

Publications and source records attributed to Johnson, Nicholas.

Orbital Debris: Past, Present, and Future

In the early days of spaceflight, the gBig Sky h theory was the near universally accepted paradigm for dealing with collisions of orbiting objects. This theory was also used during the early years of the aviation industry. Just as it did in aviation, the gBig Sky h theory breaks down as more and more objects accumulate in the environment. Fortunately, by the late 1970 fs some visionaries in NASA and the US Department of Defense (DoD) realized that trends in the orbital environment would inevitably lead to increased risks to operational spacecraft from collisions with other orbiting objects. The NASA Orbital Debris Program was established at and has been conducted at Johnson Space Center since 1979. At the start of 1979, fewer than 5000 objects were being tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and very few attempts had been made to sample the environment for smaller sizes. Today, the number of tracked objects has quadrupled. Ground ]based and in situ measurements have statistically sampled the LEO environment over most sizes and mitigation guidelines and requirements are common among most space faring nations. NASA has been a leader, not only in defining the debris environment, but in promoting awareness of the issues in the US and internationally, and in providing leadership in developing policies to address the issue. This paper will discuss in broad terms the evolution of the NASA debris program from its beginnings to its present broad range of debris related research. The paper will discuss in some detail current research topics and will attempt to predict future research trends.

Stansbery, Gene↗

End-of-Mission Passivation: Successes and Challenges

The passivation of spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages at end-of-mission has been a principal space debris mitigation measure world-wide since the 1980 s. Space vehicle passivation includes the removal of stored energies, especially those associated with propulsion and electrical power systems. Prior to 2007 the breakup of non-functioning, non-passivated space vehicles was the major source of hazardous debris in Earth orbit. The United Nations and the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee have both included passivation in their formal space debris mitigation guidelines. This often simple countermeasure has been adopted by many spacefaring countries and organizations and has undoubtedly prevented numerous major satellite breakups. For some existing space vehicle designs, passivation requires changes in hardware, software, and/or operational procedures. Questions about the permissible degree of passivation for both current and future space vehicles have arisen and are addressed herein. An important element to be considered is the potentially long period in which the space vehicle will remain in orbit, i.e., up to 25 years after mission termination in LEO and for centuries in orbits above LEO. Finally, the issue of passivation of space vehicles which have failed prematurely is addressed.

Johnson, Nicholas↗

A New Look at the GEO and Near-GEO Regimes: Operations, Disposals, and Debris

Since 1963 more than 900 spacecraft and more than 200 launch vehicle upper stages have been inserted into the vicinity of the geosynchronous regime. Equally important, more than 300 spacecraft have been maneuvered into disposal orbits at mission termination to alleviate unnecessary congestion in the finite GEO region. However, the number of GEO satellites continues to grow, and evidence exists of a substantial small debris population. In addition, the operational modes of an increasing number of GEO spacecraft differ from those of their predecessors of several decades ago, including more frequent utilization of inclined and eccentric geosynchronous orbits. Consequently, the nature of the GEO regime and its immediate surroundings is evolving from well-known classical characteristics. This paper takes a fresh look at the GEO satellite population and the near- and far-term environmental implications of the region, including the effects of national and international debris mitigation measures.

Johnson, Nicholas↗

The International Space Station and the Space Debris Environment: 10 Years On

For just over a decade the International Space Station (ISS), the most heavily protected vehicle in Earth orbit, has weathered the space debris environment well. Numerous hypervelocity impact features on the surface of ISS caused by small orbital debris and meteoroids have been observed. In addition to typical impacts seen on the large solar arrays, craters have been discovered on windows, hand rails, thermal blankets, radiators, and even a visiting logistics module. None of these impacts have resulted in any degradation of the operation or mission of the ISS. Validating the rate of small particle impacts on the ISS as predicted by space debris environment models is extremely complex. First, the ISS has been an evolving structure, from its original 20 metric tons to nearly 300 metric tons (excluding logistics vehicles) ten years later. Hence, the anticipated space debris impact rate has grown with the increasing size of ISS. Secondly, a comprehensive visual or photographic examination of the complete exterior of ISS has never been accomplished. In fact, most impact features have been discovered serendipitously. Further complications include the estimation of the size of an impacting particle without knowing its mass, velocity, and angle of impact and the effect of shadowing by some ISS components. Inadvertently and deliberately, the ISS has also been the source of space debris. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network officially cataloged 65 debris from ISS from November 1998 to November 2008: from lost cameras, sockets, and tool bags to intentionally discarded equipment and an old space suit. Fortunately, the majority of these objects fall back to Earth quickly with an average orbital lifetime of less than two months and a maximum orbital lifetime of a little more than 15 months. The cumulative total number of debris object-years is almost exactly 10, the equivalent of one piece of debris remaining in orbit for 10 years. An unknown number of debris too small to be tracked and cataloged have also been generated, but normally with even shorter orbital lifetimes. Finally, eight collision avoidance maneuvers have been performed to avoid potential collisions between ISS and large, tracked space debris. The most recent such maneuver was accomplished by ESA's Automated Transfer Vehicle, the Jules Verne, just three months before the 10th anniversary of the launch of ISS's first element.

Johnson, Nicholas↗

The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris

The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond.

Whitlock, David↗

Mission Success and Environmental Protection: Orbital Debris Considerations

The current U.S. National Space Policy specifically calls on U.S. Government entities "to follow the United States Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices, consistent with mission requirements and cost effectiveness, in the procurement and operation of spacecraft, launch services, and the operation of tests and experiments in space. Early assessment (pre-PDR) of orbital debris mitigation compliance is essential to minimize development impacts. Orbital debris mitigation practices today are the most effective means to protect the near-Earth space environment for future missions.

Johnson, Nicholas↗

Consequence of Continued Growth in the GEO and GEO Disposal Orbital Regimes

To date more than 800 spacecraft, upper stages, and apogee kick motors are known to reside in geosynchronous and nearby orbits, including geosynchronous disposal orbits. An even larger number of debris greater than 10 em in diameter have been detected by U.S. and European groundbased sensors. Using projections of geosynchronous deployment characteristics and disposal rates, NASA and Kyushu University models of the geosynchronous and super-geosynchronous orbital regimes have examined the sensitivity of the long-term satellite population to various scenarios. Emphasis has been placed on the rate of collisions in the geosynchronous orbit and in the higher disposal orbits and on the significance of cross-regime contamination. The sensitivity of the long-term environment on low velocity (0-1 km/s) collision breakup model parameters and on the minimum height of disposal orbits has also been explored. Results are presented in terms of both satellite population and spatial density.

Johnson, Nicholas↗

NASA/JSC orbital debris models

The orbital debris models developed within the framework of the NASA Johnson Space Center's (JSC's) orbital debris program, are categorized as environment definition and risk assessment models. The EVOLVE, CHAIN and the orbital debris engineering model 1996 (ORDEM96) computer programs determine the past, present and future orbital particulate environment, while the BUMPER and debris assessment software (DAS) computer programs provide a means for evaluating the risks of specific space missions. These models are presented. To support these models and to conduct specialized analyses, NASA/JSC employs a range of auxiliary models, including explosion and collision satellite breakup models, hypervelocity impact ballistic limit models, orbit propagation and decay models, space traffic models and solid rocket motor effluent models.

Johnson, Nicholas↗

The historical contribution of solid rocket motors to the one centimeter debris population

The measured small particle population in earth orbit contains cm-sized objects that are not accounted for by breakup fragments. It was proposed that slag ejection during solid rocket motor burn is a contributor to this population. The direct evidence for such slag ejection follows from: observations of the exhausts of vehicles in flight, and engineering data from static firings. A source model is presented to account for the contribution of slag expulsion from solid rocket motors to the debris population. The mass and velocity distribution of the slag effluents are taken into account and used as a source term in the debris environment model. The model is based on the available observation data and on models for slag development and ejection.

Jackson, Albert↗

Characterization of the breakup of the Pegasus rocket body 1994-029B

The breakup of a Pegasus hydrazine auxiliary propulsion system in June 1996, officially recognized as the worst satellite breakup in terms of cataloged debris, is considered. The fragmentation event is analyzed and it is discussed how these debris contribute to the current and future near earth space environment. The low altitude of the breakup and the large range of ejection velocities present concerns for other earth orbiting space vehicles, especially the Space Shuttle and the Hubble Space Telescope. In addition to orbit data collected by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network, observations were conducted with ground-based radar observatories. These observations show that the overabundance of debris is not limited to the trackable population, but also extends down to debris with sizes of less than 1 cm. Attempts to detect the debris with optical sensors were less successful.

Matney, Mark↗

Modeling fluxes resulting from new or Molniya-class objects

The behavior of objects in Molniya-type orbits and debris objects produced in new breakups are considered. As the majority of breakups in highly eccentric orbits occur in Molniya-type orbits, it is of interest whether, and how, debris objects can interfere with the geosynchronous earth orbit and low earth orbit regions. The behavior of such objects are determined principally by the initial argument of perigee and the initial inclination. The closer the initial orbit's argument of perigee is to 270 deg, and the inclination is to the critical inclination of 63.4 deg, the longer the perigee appears to be locked in the southern hemisphere. The impact on the low earth orbit region is illustrated as the interference of debris objects with the International Space Station's orbit. The possible interactions of Molniya-type debris and with the geostationary ring is demonstrated.

Siebold, Karl H.↗

Debris environment interactions with low Earth orbit constellations

Several low earth orbit communication satellite constellations are planned. Due to their size and complexity, these constellations potentially contribute to the orbital debris environment. The results of a parametric assessment of the impact of low earth orbit constellations on the orbital debris environment are presented. The increase in loss rate of non constellation spacecraft is considered, as well as the increase in the loss rate or replacement rate of constellation satellites as a result of debris impact. Primary parameters in the analysis are the number, size and altitude of the constellation. Parameters are defined for the vulnerable area of loss of spacecraft and the disposition of constellation spacecraft at the end of its life.

Reynolds, Robert↗

An overview of revised NASA safety standard 1740.14

Following a broad review of the debris control guidelines outside of NASA and according to additional feedback on the guidelines from within NASA, revisions were made to the NASA safety standard 1740.14. The NASA policy to limit the generation of orbital debris on NASA missions, stated in the NASA management instruction 1700.8 and implemented in the form of the NASA safety standard (NSS) 1740.14 is described together with the revisions implemented. The overall direction of the guidelines is the same, but the details of many of the guidelines were changed, including: changes for tether programs and for the control of operational debris. The NASA will continue to review the guidelines as new measurements and improved models of the environment are obtained.

Reynolds, Robert↗

Orbital debris: A technical assessment

To acquire an unbiased technical assessment of (1) the research needed to better understand the debris environment, (2) the necessity and means of protecting spacecraft against the debris environment, and (3) potential methods of reducing the future debris hazard, NASA asked the National Research Council to form an international committee to examine the orbital debris issue. The committee was asked to draw upon available data and analyses to: characterize the current debris environment, project how this environment might change in the absence of new measures to alleviate debris proliferation, examine ongoing alleviation activities, explore measures to address the problem, and develop recommendations on technical methods to address the problems of debris proliferation.

Gleghorn, George↗