NASA NTRS1992
High transport costs will dominate the course of lunar development. During the earliest phases, when lunar facilities consist of a research and resource development complex with staff serving tours of a few months, transport costs will encourage local production of fuel, food, and building materials. Once these capabilities are in place and the number of personnel grows to a few hundred, staff rotation might well dominate transport budgets. At that point it would make economic sense to encourage some members of staff to become permanent residents. By analogy with early British settlement in Australia, a vigorous private sector economy could emerge if the lunar organization provided quasi-export earnings through its role as the community's major employer and as the major buyer of locally produced goods. By providing such a market for goods and services, the lunar organization would not only provide a means whereby permanent residents could support themselves, but could also accelerate the process of replacing imported goods with local manufacturers, thereby reducing the cost of operations. By analogy with recent Alaskan experience, if the resource development activity started making money from sales to orbital customers, export taxes and/or royalty payments could also provide means by which a lunar community could support itself.