Engineering topics

Joselyn, Joann

Publications and source records attributed to Joselyn, Joann.

2 records

NASA NTRS1987

Solar events and their influence on the interplanetary medium

Aspects of a workshop on Solar events and their influence on the interplanetary medium, held in September 1986, are reviewed, the goal of which was to foster interactions among colleagues, leading to an improved understanding of the unified relationship between solar events and interplanetary disturbances. The workshop consisted of three working groups: (1) flares, eruptives, and other near-Sun activity; (2) coronal mass ejections; and (3) interplanetary events. Each group discussed topics distributed in advance. The flares-eruptives group members agreed that pre-event energy is stored in stressed/sheared magnetic fields, but could not agree that flares and other eruptive events (e.g., eruptive solar prominences) are aspects of the same physical phenomenon. In the coronal mass ejection group, general agreement was reached on the presence of prominences in CMEs, and that they have a significant three-dimensional structure. Some topics identified for further research were the aftermath of CMEs (streamer deflections, transient coronal holes, possible disconnections), identification of the leading edge of CMEs, and studies of the range and prevalence of CME mass sizes and energies.

Joselyn, Joann↗

NASA NTRS1987

Forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity

Forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity are critical since these quantities are such important inputs to the thermospheric density models. At this time in the history of solar science there is no way to make such a forecast from first principles. Physical theory applied to the Sun is developing rapidly, but is still primitive. Techniques used for forecasting depend upon the observations over about 130 years, which is only twelve solar cycles. It has been noted that even-numbered cycles systematically tend to be smaller than the odd-numbered ones by about 20 percent. Another observation is that for the last 12 cycle pairs, an even-numbered sunspot cycle looks rather like the next odd-numbered cycle, but with the top cut off. These observations are examples of approximate periodicities that forecasters try to use to achieve some insight into the nature of an upcoming cycle. Another new and useful forecasting aid is a correlation that has been noted between geomagnetic indices and the size of the next solar cycle. Some best estimates are given concerning both activities.

Joselyn, Joann↗