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NASA NTRS2022

Solving The Space Weather Problem: A 15+ Year Roadmap to Revolutionize Space Weather Research, Protect NASA Space Assets, and Enable Robust Operations

The White Paper (WP) describes a roadmap to address the Space Weather (SpWx) problem. It presents a strategic vision of how a community-wide effort could be organized and implemented to enable transformative advancement in SpWx research and ultimately, in applications. We envision a ‘system-of-systems’—an integrated web of SpWx stations and state-ofthe-art modeling facilities to enable a transformative advance in SpWx nowcasting and forecasting (Figure 1). The Space Weather Aggregated Network of Systems (SWANS) will enable space situational awareness for end-users invested in spaceflight operations, infrastructure risk mitigation, and future human endeavors in space exploration while profoundly transforming Heliophysics research.

A Vourrlidas↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Badhwar-O'Neill 2020 Model

The Badhwar-O’Neill (BON) model has been used for some time to describe the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment encountered in deep space by astronauts and sensitive electronics. The most recent version of the model, BON2014, was calibrated to available measurements to reduce model errors for particles and energies of significance to astronaut exposure. Although subsequent studies showed the model to be reasonably accurate for such applications, modifications to the sunspot number (SSN) classification system and a large number of new high-precision measurements suggested the need to develop an improved and more capable model. In this work, the BON2020 model is described. The new model relies on daily integral flux from the Advanced Composition Explorer Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/CRIS) to describe solar activity. For time periods not covered by ACE/CRIS, the updated international SSN database is used. Parameters in the new model are calibrated to available data, which includes the new Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) and Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) high-precision measurements. It is found that the BON2020 model is a significant improvement over BON2014. Systematic errors associated with BON2014 have been removed. The average relative error of the BON2020 model compared to all available measurements is found to be <1%, and BON2020 is found to be within +15% of a large fraction of the available measurements (26,269 of 27,646  95%.

T C Slaba↗