DOE OSTI2011
This paper provides an editors' introduction to the special issue of Climatic Change on the RCPs. Scenarios form a crucial element in climate change research. They allow researchers to explore the long-term consequences of decisions today, while taking account of the inertia in both the socio-economic and physical system. Scenarios also form an integrating element among the different research disciplines of those studying climate change, such as economists, technology experts, climate researchers, atmospheric chemists and geologists. In 2007, the IPCC requested the scientific community to develop a new set of scenarios, as the existing scenarios (published in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000), and called the 'SRES scenarios') needed to be updated and expanded in scope (see Moss et al. (2010) for a detailed discussion). Researchers from different disciplines worked together to develop a process to craft these new scenarios, as summarized by Moss, et al. (2010). The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), founded in response to the IPCC call, played a key role in this process.1 The scenario development process aims to develop a set of new scenarios that facilitate integrated analysis of climate change across the main scientific communities. The process comprises 3 main phases: (1) an initial phase, developing a set of pathways for emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing, (2) a parallel phase, comprising both the development of new socio-economic storylines and climate model projections, and (3) an integration phase, combining the information from the first phases into holistic mitigation, impacts and vulnerability assessments. The pathways developed in the first phase were called 'Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)'. They play an important role in providing input for prospective climate model experiments, including both the decadal and long-term projections of climate change. The RCPs also provide an important reference point for new research within the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) community by standardizing on a common set of year-2100 conditions, and exploring alternative pathways and policies that could produce these outcomes. By design, the RCPs, as a set, cover the range of radiative forcing levels examined in the open literature and contain relevant information for climate model runs. This Special Issue documents the main assumptions and characteristics of the RCPs, and, in particular, the various steps that were involved in their development. A number of collaborative activities were initiated and finalized during the last 2-3 years to develop the RCPs. This required the cooperation of researchers from various disciplines involved in climate research, including emission experts, climate modelers, atmospheric chemistry modelers, land use modelers and experts involved in integrated assessment. The four RCPs together reflect the range of year-2100 radiative forcing values found in the literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m{sup 2}. The papers in this Special Issue describe the individual RCPs, but also the various integrative steps that were necessary within the RCP development process to provide a harmonized set of pathways, that show a smooth transition from the past and extend far into the future for very long-term experiments. Important outcomes of this process included, for instance, the development of new emission inventories, new methods for the harmonization of spatial land use patterns, as well as extensions of the RCP trends beyond 2100. They briefly discuss the content of the individual papers.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗