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Kasahara, Akira

Publications and source records attributed to Kasahara, Akira.

Impact of cumulus initialization on the spinup of precipitation forecasts in the tropics

To ameliorate the precipitation spinup problem, i.e., the prediction model's inability to produce realistic precipitation rates at the beginning of the forecast period, the impact of a tropical initialization procedure on precipitation forecasts is examined. Attention is focused on the examination of the time behavior of precipitation rates and the closely associated variables of horizontal divergence and moisture during the first 42 time steps corresponding to 10.5 h. It is determined that the originally analyzed tropical divergence fields have realistic geographical distributions but there intensities seem to be too low by a factor of two.

Kasahara, Akira

Estimates of tropical analysis differences in daily values produced by two operational centers

To assess the uncertainty of daily synoptic analyses for the atmospheric state, the intercomparison of three First GARP Global Experiment level IIIb datasets is performed. Daily values of divergence, vorticity, temperature, static stability, vertical motion, mixing ratio, and diagnosed diabatic heating rate are compared for the period of 26 January-11 February 1979. The spatial variance and mean, temporal mean and variance, 2D wavenumber power spectrum, anomaly correlation, and normalized square difference are employed for comparison.

Kasahara, Akira

On the normal modes of Laplace's tidal equations for zonal wavenumber zero

The characteristic differences between two different rotational modes of Laplace's tidal equations for wavenumber m = 0, called the K- and the S-modes, are compared in their energy ratio and structures. It is shown that the K-mode representation captures most of the observed zonal energy with a few terms, whereas the S-mode representation requires many terms. For small vertical scale components, the K-mode series converges faster than the S-mode series. Attention is also given to the differences between the energy spectra projected upon the K- and S-modes and the merits of each set as expansion functions for the zonal atmospheric motions.

Tanaka, H. L.

Research on diabatic initialization

The objective was to contribute to the improvement of the analyses of irrotational wind and moisture fields in the trophics through advancement in the technique of initialization by incorporating diabatic effects. Significant accomplishments made during the period May 1990 to April 1991 in the following areas are presented: (1) estimation of the uncertainty of daily synoptic analyses in the tropics; (2) normal modes of Laplace's tidal equations for zonal wavenumber zero; and (3) tropical initialization to ameliorate the spin-up problem of precipitation forecasts. The focus of current research and plans for next year are also presented.

Kasahara, Akira

Research on diabatic initialization

The objective of this research project is to contribute to improvement in the synoptic analyses in the tropics for numerical weather prediction and climate research. In addition to a prediction model, four dimensional data assimilation systems have two principal components. One is objective analysis and the other is initialization. Various methods of objective analysis are designed primarily to analyze the mass and rotational wind fields. Methods of initialization are developed to obtain the irrotational wind and its associated vertical velocity field which are balanced with the mass field and free from meteorological noise. There are essentially three approaches to the problem of initialization: quasi-geostrophic theory, bounded derivative method and nonlinear normal mode method. In the midlatitudes, these approaches generally produce satisfactory results even without diabatic effects for large-scale motions. In the tropics, the situation is quite different from that in the midlatitudes. Because of a small magnitude of the Coriolis parameter and a weak horizontal temperature gradient in the tropics, any method of initialization must incorporate diabatic effects. In fact, it can be said that understanding the problem of diabatic initialization is the key to improving the analysis and weather forecasting in the tropics.

Kasahara, Akira

Investigation of biogeophysical feedback on the African climate using a two-dimensional model

A numerical scheme is specifically designed to develop a time-dependent climate model to ensure the conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and water vapor, in order to study the biogeophysical feedback for the climate of Africa. A vegetation layer is incorporated in the present two-dimensional climate model. Using the coupled climate-vegetation model, two tests were performed involving the removal and expansion of the Sahara Desert. Results show that variations in the surface conditions produce a significant feedback to the climate system. It is noted that the simulation responses to the temperature and zonal wind in the case of an expanded desert agree with the climatological data for African dry years. Perturbed simulations have also been performed by changing the albedo only, without allowing the variation in the vegetation layer. It is shown that the variation in latent heat release is significant and is related to changes in the vegetation cover. As a result, precipitation and cloud cover are reduced.

Xue, Yongkang

Use of satellite radiometric imagery data for improvement in the analysis of divergent wind in the tropics

A scheme is proposed to incorporate satellite radiometric imagery data into the specification of initial conditions for the National Meteorological Center (NMC) operational global prediction model in order to improve the analysis of the divergent wind field in the tropics. The basic assumptions are that outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data can provide 1) the division between convective (upward motion) and clear sky (downward motion) areas, and 2) the height of convection cells. The intensity of ascending motion in the convective areas is estimated based on OLR data. The intensity of descending motion is evaluated from the thermodynamic energy balance between radiative cooling and adiabatic warming, since the local time change of temperature is small in the tropics. Once the vertical motion field is determined, the horizontal divergence field can be calculated from the mass continuity equation. Then a divergent wind field is determined. The total wind is the sum of the new divergent wind and the rotational part, which is assumed to be unchanged. The proposed scheme is tested using the NMC analysis dataset of 21 January 1985 with satisfactory results.

Kasahara, Akira