Kaufman, Noah | Search NASA

DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging Open-Source Tools for Collaborative Macro-energy System Modeling Efforts

The authors are founding team members of a new effort to develop an Open Energy Outlook for the United States. The effort aims to apply best practices of policy-focused energy system modeling, ensure transparency, build a networked community, and work toward a common purpose: examining possible US energy system futures to inform energy and climate policy efforts. Individual author biographies can be found on the project website: https://openenergyoutlook.org/.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO 2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO 2 prices. In this study we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO 2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO 2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO 2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO 2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO 2 emission target, prices are US $ \$34$ to US $ \$64$ per metric ton in 2025 and US $ \$77$ to US $ \$124$ in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗