Modeling interconnections of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants, Part 2: Methodological developments and case study
Not provided.
Nuclear Science & Technology↗
Engineering topics
Kee, Ernie
Publications and source records attributed to Kee, Ernie.
Modeling interconnections of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants part 1: Categorical review and theoretical bases
Not provided.
Nuclear Science & Technology↗
Estimation of pipe failure frequencies in the absence of operational experience data: A pilot study
Probabilistic failure metrics such as leak frequency and rupture frequency are commonly used to characterize piping reliability. The methodologies for calculating the failure metrics rely on a complex set of input parameters. Operating experience data and experimental data play an important role in informing the different input parameters. The paper describes results and conclusions of a coordinated research project to benchmark three different reliability models using a four-step procedure: reference case definition of relevance to advanced reactor designs, input parameter calibration, validation of results, and application of different methodologies upon completion of the calibration and validation steps. The reference case is a weld consisting of nickel-base alloy 152/52 and located within a primary pressure boundary of an advanced reactor. This alloy is a class of structural materials known to be highly resistant to stress corrosion cracking. Synergies between the different methods are noted and the importance of a multi-disciplinary approach to input parameter development is underscored. A key conclusion is that the three methods are equally suitable for estimating failure frequencies. In any specific application, a selection of the most practical or effective computational tool can be considered. The comparison of alternative models confirms and helps to gain confidence in the computed failure frequency estimates. The study was part of a coordinated research project organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Modeling interconnections of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants, part 3: Spatiotemporal probabilistic physics-of-failure analysis and its connection to safety and financial performance
Here, this paper is a byproduct of a line of research by the authors to analyze interrelationships of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The result of this line of research is summarized in three parts: Part 1 covers a categorical review of relevant literature and the theoretical bases that support the methodological developments in Part 2. Part 2 introduces an Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework to quantify the interconnections of safety and financial performance with a focus on operation and maintenance (O&M) of NPPs. Part 2 has also demonstrated the applicability and values of the I-ERM methodology through an NPP case study. This paper is Part 3, where detailed development and implementation of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., probabilistic physics-of-failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with safety and financial performance is reported. In this article, the physical failure modeling for hardware components is advanced by incorporating finite element analysis (FEA) into PPoF analysis and coupling the FEA-based PPoF with the maintenance performance through a renewal process model. This article covers two scientific contributions: (i) first-of-its-kind incorporation of FEA into the PPoF model of thermal fatigue for NPP components; and (ii) advancing the interface between the PPoF analysis and the renewal process model in order to deal with spatiotemporal FEA outputs and to efficiently estimate the physical transition rates even when the PPoF outputs are dominated by success data. Through the incorporation of FEA, the resolution of the PPoF analysis is enhanced as spatiotemporal conditions such as stress and temperature can be considered explicitly instead of relying on simplified assumptions or analytical models with reduced spatiotemporal dimensions. To demonstrate an application of the FEA-based PPoF analysis and its coupling with maintenance through the renewal process model, a case study is conducted using excess letdown elbow piping in the chemical and volume control system of a Pressurized Water Reactor.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Integrated Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Modeling in Support of Operational Efficiency (Final Report)
To improve the realism of Fire PRA associated with fire progression and damage modeling or manual suppression, previous research by the Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (SoTeRiA) Research Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign focused on the development of an Integrated PRA (I-PRA) methodological framework for fire risk analysis in NPPs.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Systematic Enterprise Risk Management by Integrating the RISMC Toolkit and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Final Report)
The goal of this research is to theorize and quantify the relationships between safety and the financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (SoTeRiA) theoretical framework, which connects the social aspects (e.g., safety culture) and structural features (e.g., safety practices) of an organization with organizational safety and financial risks, is used to theorize the direct and indirect relationships between safety and the financial performance of NPPs. An Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework is developed to operationalize SoTeRiA to quantify NPP safety and financial performance in a unified platform where their underlying physical degradation mechanisms, coupled with maintenance performance (considering human and organizational factors), are explicitly incorporated to depict the interconnections and dependencies between safety and financial performance. In this study, NPP safety refers to both occupational safety and system safety (estimated from Probabilistic Risk Assessment, PRA), and financial performance refers to the monetary values associated with NPP operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies. This report covers a case study demonstrating the feasibility of the I-ERM methodological framework. More detailed development of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with other I-ERM modules is demonstrated in a second case study. The outcome of this research will help NPP decision-makers create cost-saving maintenance strategies while maintaining safety by providing cost- and risk-informed recommendations regarding maintenance work processes and operational strategies.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Review and categorization of existing studies on the estimation of probabilistic failure metrics for Reactor Coolant Pressure Boundary piping and steam generator tubes in Nuclear Power Plants
This article presents the first output of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Project (CRP), titled Methodology for Assessing Pipe Failure Rates in Advanced Water-Cooled Reactors (AWCRs), launched in 2018. This IAEA CRP is aimed at developing a good-practices document for estimating the probabilistic failure metrics of piping in AWCRs. The reliability of piping that comprise the Reactor Coolant Pressure Boundary (RCPB) is important for maintaining safe and stable operations of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) because failure of those piping components could lead to undesirable consequences, such as plant shutdown, costly repair, the occurrence of Loss-of-Coolant Accidents (LOCAs) and, possibly, subsequent core damage or large release events. Probabilistic failure metrics (e.g., failure rate, failure frequency, or failure probability) of RCPB components are the key inputs to the Probabilistic Safety/Risk Assessment (PSA/PRA) and risk management of NPPs. The estimation of probabilistic failure metrics, however, is challenging, especially for AWCRs, due to the lack of operating experience. Therefore, as the first step of the IAEA CRP activities, this paper is developed to provide a literature review of the existing studies (from 2000 to April 2019) on the estimation of probabilistic failure metrics for RCPB piping and Steam Generator (SG) tubes of NPPs and to categorize them based on four criteria: (1) explicitness of incorporation of physical failure mechanisms; (2) types of failure characterization; (3) types of physical models for degradation; and (4) explicitness of consideration of maintenance. The existing studies are also analyzed from the viewpoint of the following key aspects: (i) uncertainty analysis, (ii) sensitivity analysis, (iii) validation strategies, and (iv) the areas of applications.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Simulation-Informed Probabilistic Methodology for Common Cause Failure Analysis
Not Available
Sakurahara, Tatsuya↗
Integrating renewal process modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure: Application to Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) frequency estimations in nuclear power plants
Renewal process modeling is used for the failure prediction of hardware components under periodic maintenance. While most studies utilized data-driven approaches to estimate the input parameters for renewal process models, this paper initiates a line of research to integrate renewal process modeling with probabilistic models of underlying mechanisms associated with physical degradation and maintenance. At this stage of the research, the methodology integrates Markov modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) models of degradation, while maintenance is treated by a data-driven approach. This methodology is valuable to obtain a more accurate estimation of component reliability and availablity, especially when (i) components are highly reliable, and failure data are limited, (ii) historical data are unreliable due to changes in design, operation, and maintenance, or (iii) advanced technologies have emerged limiting operational data. The methodology explicitly incorporates the underlying spatiotemporal causes of failure into the renewal model, allowing to rank the criticality of causal factors to improve maintenance and mitigation strategies. Although the new methodology is applicable for component reliability and availability analysis in diverse industries, this report demonstrates its value for estimating frequencies of a Loss-Of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), which is an initiating event in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs).
42 ENGINEERING↗