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Kesel, P. G.

Publications and source records attributed to Kesel, P. G..

Advanced development of atmospheric models

A set of atmospheric analysis and prediction models was developed in support of the SEASAT Program existing objective analysis models which utilize a 125x125 polar stereographic grid of the Northern Hemisphere, which were modified in order to incorporate and assess the impact of (real or simulated) satellite data in the analysis of a two-day meteorological scenario in January 1979. Program/procedural changes included: (1) a provision to utilize winds in the sea level pressure and multi-level height analyses (1000-100 MBS); (2) The capability to perform a pre-analysis at two control levels (1000 MBS and 250 MBS); (3) a greater degree of wind- and mass-field coupling, especially at these controls levels; (4) an improved facility to bogus the analyses based on results of the preanalysis; and (5) a provision to utilize (SIRS) satellite thickness values and cloud motion vectors in the multi-level height analysis.

Kesel, P. G.↗

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 1: Summary of findings

Atmospheric analysis and prediction models of varying (grid) resolution were developed. The models were tested using real observational data for the purpose of assessing the impact of grid resolution on short range numerical weather prediction. The discretionary model procedures were examined so that the computational viability of SEASAT data might be enhanced during the conduct of (future) sensitivity tests. The analysis effort covers: (1) examining the procedures for allowing data to influence the analysis; (2) examining the effects of varying the weights in the analysis procedure; (3) testing and implementing procedures for solving the minimization equation in an optimal way; (4) describing the impact of grid resolution on analysis; and (5) devising and implementing numerous practical solutions to analysis problems, generally.

Kesel, P. G.↗

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 5: Test results with fine-mesh (187 by 187 by 10) model

A model (187 x 187 grid with ten layers) was used to produce a 24 hour forecast using initial conditions for 1200Z, 20 May 1976. This forecast was compared to its five layer counterpart on the 187 x 187 grid and to its 63 x 63 coarse mesh counterpart having the same number of layers. Increases in horizontal resolution lead to significant differences in a one day forecast. Many of these differences represent improvements. Increases in vertical resolution tend to produce smaller impacts on the forecast, except in the region near and above the tropopause. The effect on forecast precipitation is in the 10-20% range, as opposed to the 100% for increases in the horizontal resolution. With respect to model energetics (kinetic energy; square vorticity; square divergence), the model tend to group according to horizontal resolution. The time variations of these parameters show that dynamic initialization is needed to: (1) minimize initialization shock; and (2) stabilize the model context to prevent wash-out of small scale information during the adjustment period (first 6-12 forecast hours).

Kesel, P. G.↗

Atmospheric analysis and prediction model development, volume 1

A set of hemispheric atmospheric analysis and prediction models was designed and tested. All programs were executed on either a 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 polar stereographic grid of the Northern Hemisphere. Parameters for objective analysis included sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and twelve levels (from 1,000 to 100 millibars) of temperatures, heights, and winds. Stratospheric extensions (up to 10 millibars) were also provided. Four versions of a complex atmospheric prediction model, based on primitive equations, were programmed and tested. These models were executed on either the 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 grid, using either five or ten computational layers. The coarse-mesh (63 x 63) models were tested using real data for the period 21-23 April 1976. The fine-mesh (187 x 187) models were debugged, but insufficient computer resources precluded production tests. Preliminary test results for the 63 x 63 models are provided. Problem areas and proposed solutions are discussed.

Kesel, P. G.↗