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Kevrekidis, George A.

Publications and source records attributed to Kevrekidis, George A..

Machine learning for the identification of phase transitions in interacting agent-based systems: A Desai-Zwanzig example

Deriving closed-form analytical expressions for reduced-order models, and judiciously choosing the closures leading to them, has long been the strategy of choice for studying phase- and noise-induced transitions for agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework that pinpoints phase transitions for an ABM—the Desai-Zwanzig model—in its mean-field limit, using a smaller number of variables than traditional closed-form models. To this end, we use the manifold learning algorithm Diffusion Maps to identify a parsimonious set of data-driven latent variables, and we show that they are in one-to-one correspondence with the expected theoretical order parameter of the ABM. We then utilize a deep learning framework to obtain a conformal reparametrization of the data-driven coordinates that facilitates, in our example, the identification of a single parameter-dependent ordinary differential equation (ODE) in these coordinates. Additionally, we identify this ODE through a residual neural network inspired by a numerical integration scheme (forward Euler). We then use the identified ODE—enabled through an odd symmetry transformation—to construct the bifurcation diagram exhibiting the phase transition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Vaccination compartmental epidemiological models for the delta and omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants

We explore the inclusion of vaccination in compartmental epidemiological models concerning the delta and omicron variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. We expand on our earlier compartmental-model work by incorporating vaccinated populations. We present two classes of models that differ depending on the immunological properties of the variant. The first one is for the delta variant, where we do not follow the dynamics of the vaccinated individuals since infections of vaccinated individuals were rare. The second one for the far more contagious omicron variant incorporates the evolution of the infections within the vaccinated cohort. We explore comparisons with available data involving two possible classes of counts, fatalities and hospitalizations. We present our results for two regions, Andalusia and Switzerland (including the Principality of Liechtenstein), where the necessary data are available. In the majority of the considered cases, the models are found to yield good agreement with the data and have a reasonable predictive capability beyond their training window, rendering them potentially useful tools for the interpretation of the COVID-19 and further pandemic waves, and for the design of intervention strategies during these waves.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

On the parameter combinations that matter and on those that do not: data-driven studies of parameter (non)identifiability

Abstract We present a data-driven approach to characterizing nonidentifiability of a model’s parameters and illustrate it through dynamic as well as steady kinetic models. By employing Diffusion Maps and their extensions, we discover the minimal combinations of parameters required to characterize the output behavior of a chemical system: a set of effective parameters for the model. Furthermore, we introduce and use a Conformal Autoencoder Neural Network technique, as well as a kernel-based Jointly Smooth Function technique, to disentangle the redundant parameter combinations that do not affect the output behavior from the ones that do. We discuss the interpretability of our data-driven effective parameters, and demonstrate the utility of the approach both for behavior prediction and parameter estimation. In the latter task, it becomes important to describe level sets in parameter space that are consistent with a particular output behavior. We validate our approach on a model of multisite phosphorylation, where a reduced set of effective parameters (nonlinear combinations of the physical ones) has previously been established analytically.

Evangelou, Nikolaos↗