Search NASA⌕ Search

Engineering topics

Khanna, Madhu

Publications and source records attributed to Khanna, Madhu.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

An agent-based modeling tool supporting bioenergy and bio-product community communication regarding cellulosic bioeconomy development

The emergence of the cellulosic bioeconomy requires not only adequate technological, economic, and policy advances, but also effective communication and coordination among the multiple stakeholders in the bioeconomy community. Aiming to facilitate stakeholder communication and collaboration for cellulosic bioeconomy growth, an agent-based model is developed as a community communication tool in this study. The tool simulates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, as well as the responses and interactions between the stakeholders and biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. The agent behavior rules are developed and validated based on behavior and economic theories and information attained from a stakeholder focus group study and a land use survey. A pilot study in a Central Illinois watershed shows stakeholder synergies, i.e., positive feedback loops across multiple stakeholders. The modeling tool's role in facilitating community communication is demonstrated via the focus group study. A comparison of policy scenarios suggests that the cellulosic bioeconomy development is fastest under a portfolio of policies combining the views of the multiple stakeholders. Critically, subsidy for small-scale bio-facilities is essential as it rapidly initializes an early market for cellulosic feedstocks and the adoption of Miscanthus. As a result, the communication tool is applied to bringing stakeholders and researchers together to develop shared visions, assess barriers, and explore solution portfolios to initialize and speed up the regional cellulosic bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Responsiveness of miscanthus and switchgrass yields to stand age and nitrogen fertilization: A meta‐regression analysis

Abstract Optimal management of the perennial bioenergy crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, requires an understanding of their responsiveness to nitrogen (N) fertilizer at different maturity stages across locations and growing conditions. Earlier studies that have examined the yield response of these crops to N and stand age using field experiments or meta‐analysis techniques provide mixed evidence. We extend earlier studies by applying a multi‐level mixed‐effects (MLME) meta‐regression model to conduct a more extensive multivariate regression of yield response of these crops to N and stand age, while controlling for climate and location conditions and unobserved factors related to study design. Our findings are based on 1403 and 2811 yield observations for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively, from experiments conducted between 2002 and 2019 across the rainfed region in the United States. We find statistically significant evidence that an additional year of maturity increases miscanthus and switchgrass yields but at a decreasing rate; yields peak at the 7th and 6th year respectively, for the observed range of applied N rates and stands. We also find that an increase in N application increases yield by a statistically significant level, but at a declining rate; the magnitude of the yield response to N is, however, small and varies with the age of the crop. The impact of N is larger on older compared to younger and middle‐aged stands of miscanthus. In contrast, the impact of N on switchgrass is larger on middle‐aged compared to younger and older stands of switchgrass. We do not find a statistically significant effect of soil productivity on yield for either crop. This analysis provides a basis for developing N application recommendations and optimal rotation age for miscanthus and switchgrass and shows that these energy crops can grow just as productively on low productivity land as on high productivity land.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data for Responsiveness of Miscanthus and Switchgrass Yields to Stand Age and Nitrogen Fertilization: A Meta-regression Analysis

The compiled datasets include plot level observations of energy crops (miscanthus and switchgrass) from recent experimental field trials in the US including dry biomass yield, location, state, region, harvest year, growing season degree days (GDD), winter season heating degree days (HDD), growing season cumulative precipitation, annual nitrogen application rate, age of the pant when harvested, National Commodity Crop Productivity Index (NCCPI) values, and cultivar type (switchgrass) from various published and unpublished sources. The stata codes include estimation procedures for four different specifications, i.e., Model A includes deterministic effect without interaction terms; Model B includes deterministic effect with interaction terms (N2, age2, N × age, GDD2, precip2, N × NCCPI); Model C includes deterministic effect with interaction terms, study, and location random effect; Model D includes deterministic effect with interaction terms, harvest year augmented study, and location random effect.

Age↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inducing the adoption of emerging technologies for sustainable intensification of food and renewable energy production: insights from applied economics

Emerging advances in sustainable intensification technologies have the potential to transform land use and crop management approaches in ways that can increase resource productivity and reduce adverse environmental impacts of agricultural production. This paper describes emerging technologies that can sustainably intensify food and renewable energy production. We apply the findings from studies examining the adoption of technologies with similar stylized features to provide insights about the incentives and barriers for the adoption of these emerging technologies. We also present a landscape-based systems approach, based on welfare economics, to go beyond relying on a positive approach to explain observed adoption decisions to examining normative questions about the optimal mix, level, and location of adoption of these technologies to achieve desired societal outcomes. Here, we conclude with a discussion of the insights from applied economics for the design of policy incentives to achieve these outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adoption of perennial energy crops in the US Midwest: Causal and heterogeneous determinants

The success of a bioenergy policy relies largely on the wide adoption of perennial energy crops at the farm-scale. This study uses survey data to examine potential adoption decisions by farmers in the US Midwest and the causal effects of various direct and indirect influencing factors, especially heterogeneous preferences of farmers. A Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to delineate the causal-relationship between farmers adoption decisions and the influencing factors. Here, we find a dominating role of economic factors and a non-negligible impact of non-economic factors, such as the perceived environmental benefits and the extent of familiarity with perennial energy crops. To examine the effect of heterogeneity in farmer preferences, we classify the surveyed farmers into four categories based on their attitudes toward the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of perennial energy crops. We identify statistically significant between-group differences in the responses of the four types of farmers to the various influencing factors. Our findings contribute to disentangling the complicated motivations that will influence perennial energy crop adoption decisions and provide implications for more targeted policy development that need to consider the heterogeneous drivers of farmer decisions about land use.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data for Adoption of Perennial Energy Crops in the U.S. Midwest, Causal and Heterogeneous Determinants

The success of a bioenergy policy relies largely on the wide adoption of perennial energy crops at the farm scale. This study uses survey data to examine potential adoption decisions by farmers in the U.S. Midwest and the causal effects of various direct and indirect influencing factors, especially heterogeneous preferences of farmers. A Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to delineate the causal relationship between farmers adoption decisions and the influencing factors. We find a dominating role of economic factors and a non-negligible impact of non-economic factors, such as the perceived environmental benefits and the extent of familiarity with perennial energy crops. To examine the effect of heterogeneity in farmer preferences, we classify the surveyed farmers into four categories based on their attitudes toward the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of perennial energy crops. We identified statistically significant between-group differences in the responses of the four types of farmers to the various influencing factors. Our findings contribute to disentangling the complicated motivations that will influence perennial energy crop adoption decisions and provide implications for more targeted policy development that need to consider the heterogeneous drivers of farmer decisions about land use.

Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Redefining marginal land for bioenergy crop production

Abstract Marginal land has received wide attention for its potential to produce bioenergy feedstocks while minimizing diversion of productive agricultural land from food crop production. However, there has been no consensus in the literature on how to define or identify land that is marginal for food crops and beneficial for bioenergy crops. Studies have used different definitions to quantify the amount of such land available; these have largely been based on assumed biophysical thresholds for soil quality and productivity that are unchanging over space and time. We discuss the limitations of these definitions and the rationale for considering economic returns and environmental outcomes in classifying land as marginal. We then propose the concept of “socially” marginal which is defined as land that is earning close to zero returns after accounting for the monetized costs of environmental externalities generated. We discuss a broad set of criteria for classifying land as socially marginal for food crops and suitable for bioenergy crops; with these criteria, this classification depends on spatially varying and time‐varying factors, such as climate and market conditions and policy incentives. While there are challenges related to identifying this marginal land, satellite and other large‐scale datasets increasingly enable such analysis at a fine spatial resolution. We also discuss reasons why landowners might choose not to convert bioenergy‐suitable land to bioenergy crops, and thus the need for policy incentives to support conversion of land that is socially beneficial for bioenergy crop production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Marginal Land Availability Based on Land Use Change Information in the Contiguous United States

Utilization of marginal land for growing dedicated bioenergy crops for second-generation biofuels is appealing to avoid conflicts with food production. This study develops a novel framework to quantify marginal land for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) based on a history of satellite-observed land use change (LUC) over the 2008–2015 period. Frequent LUC between crop and noncrop is assumed to be an indicator of economically marginal land; this land is also likely to have a lower opportunity cost of conversion from food crop to bioenergy crop production. We first present an approach to identify cropland in transition using the time series of Cropland Data Layer (CDL) land cover product and determine the amount of land that can be considered marginal with a high degree of confidence vs with uncertainty across the CONUS. We find that the biophysical characteristics of this land and its productivity and environmental vulnerability vary across the land and lie in between that of permanent cropland and permanent natural vegetation/bare areas; this land also has relatively low intrinsic value and agricultural profit but a high financial burden and economic risk. We find that the total area of marginal land with confidence vs with uncertainty is 10.2 and 58.4 million hectares, respectively, and mainly located along the 100th meridian. Only a portion of this marginal land (1.4–2.2 million hectares with confidence and 14.8–19.4 million hectares with uncertainty) is in the rainfed region and not in crop production and, thus, suitable for producing energy crops without diverting land from food crops in 2016. These estimates are much smaller than the estimates obtained by previous studies, which consider all biophysically low-quality land to be marginal without considering economical marginality. The estimate of marginal land for bioenergy crops obtained in this study is an indicator of the availability of economically marginal land that is suitable for bioenergy crop production; whether this land is actually converted to bioenergy crops will depend on the market conditions. Here, we note the inability to conduct field-level validation of cropland in transition and leave it to future advances in technology to ground-truth land use change and its relationship to economically marginal land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lessons Learned from US Experience with Biofuels: Comparing the Hype with the Evidence

Biofuel production in the United States, primarily from corn, has more than doubled since 2007, leading to concerns about its unintended consequences for agricultural and fuel markets. To examine the validity of these concerns and inform the debate about biofuels and their impacts, we review ex ante projections and ex post evidence of the effects of biofuels on land use, food and fuel prices, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that biofuels expansion contributed to an initial significant increase in agricultural commodity prices, but these impacts have dissipated over time as crop productivity has increased and cropping patterns have changed. Simulated estimates of indirect land use change and the related GHG emissions intensity of biofuels have also declined sharply from their early levels, which is consistent with ex post evidence. Additionally, growth in biofuel production caused a very modest reduction in fossil fuel prices, implying a small fuel rebound effect. Overall, estimates imply that first-generation biofuels from corn have a lower carbon intensity than gasoline. Lastly, learning by doing, economies of scale, and technological improvements have made biofuels from corn increasingly competitive, reducing the need for subsidies and import tariffs. We conclude with a discussion of the lessons learned from the US biofuels experience.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulated Land Allocation, Nitrogen Use, and Nitrogen Loss in the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin for Various RFS2 (Renewable Fuel Standard) Policy Scenarios

Total nitrogen leaching rates were calculated over the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) using an integrated economic-biophysical modeling approach. Land allocation for corn production and total nitrogen application rates were calculated for crop reporting districts using the Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model (BEPAM) for 5 RFS2 policy scenarios. These were used as input in the Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Agricultural Version (Agro-IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrologic Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB) to calculate the nitrogen loss. Land allocation and total nitrogen application simulations were simulated for the period 2016-2030 for 303 crop reporting districts (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Data_and_Statistics/County_Data_Files/Frequently_Asked_Questions/county_list.txt). The final 2030 values are reported here. Both are stored in csv files. Units for land allocation are million ha and nitrogen application are million kg. The nitrogen leaching rates were modeled with a spatial resolution of 5' x 5' using the North American Datum of 1983 projection and stored in NetCDF files. The 30-year average is calculated over the last 30 years of the 45 years being simulated. Leaching rates are calculated in kg-N/ha.

bioenergy crops↗
DOE OSTI2021

Repeal of the Clean Power Plan: Social Cost and Distributional Implications

The Clean Power Plan (CPP) was repealed due to concerns about the “unnecessary, costly burdens” it may impose on electric utilities, thereby delaying efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions (CO 2 ) from the electricity sector. This paper examines the greenhouse gas and welfare implications of this repeal while incorporating the presence of the state renewable portfolio standards (RPS) in the US as the status quo. We assess the carbon abatement and welfare costs with the CPP relative to two alternative baselines: a no–policy baseline and a pre–existing policy baseline with the RPS. The CPP is implemented as a regional mass–based standard, a regional rate–based standard, or as a national mass–based standard with trading of emissions across regions over the 2022–2030 period. We find that the incremental discounted welfare costs per metric ton of CO 2 that would have been abated by the CPP relative to the RPS would be substantially lower than the global social cost of CO 2 . However, the overall costs of carbon abatement with the CPP added to the RPS would have become higher than the social cost of carbon when estimated relative to a no–policy baseline, except with a national mass–based CPP. Across all policy combinations and choice of baselines, the aggregate welfare costs were lowest under a national mass–based standard and highest under the regional rate–based standard. Here, we also find that the CPP would have imposed large welfare costs on consumers and fossil fuel producers while benefiting the renewable fuel producers.

, Q42↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water Quality Effects of Economically Viable Land Use Change in the Mississippi River Basin under the Renewable Fuel Standard

Demand for biofuel production driven by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) has coincided with increased land in corn production and increasing nitrogen (N) loss to the Gulf of Mexico. Diversifying cropland with perennial energy crops (miscanthus and switchgrass) may reduce N loss and improve water quality. However, the extent of these benefits depends on the mix of biomass feedstocks (corn stover, perennials) incentivized by the RFS2 and the extent to which energy crops displace N-intensive row crops. We developed an integrated economic-biophysical model to quantify the water quality impacts of three potential policy scenarios that provided corn ethanol at levels before the RFS2 (RFS1 baseline); 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol (corn ethanol only); or 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol in addition to corn ethanol (corn + cellulosic ethanol). Our results showed that economically optimal locations for perennial energy crop production were distributed across idle cropland with lower intrinsic N loss than active cropland. We found stover removal incentivized by the RFS2 offset N loss benefits of perennial energy crops. Furthermore, this finding suggests that targeted incentives for N loss reduction are needed to supplement the RFS2 to induce displacement of N-intensive row crops with energy crops to reduce N losses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Returns to Land and Greenhouse Gas Savings from Producing Energy Crops on Conservation Reserve Program Land

Using land already enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in the eastern region of the U.S. for producing energy crops for bioenergy while reducing land rental payments offers the potential for lowering the program costs, increasing returns to CRP landowners, and displacing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuels. We develop an integrated modeling approach to analyze the combination of biomass prices and CRP land rental payment reductions that can incentivize energy crop production on CRP land and its potential to increase soil carbon stocks and displace fossil fuel emissions. Here, we find that conversion of 3.4 million ha in the CRP can be economically viable at a minimum biomass price of 75 Mg –1 with full CRP land rental payment or at 100 Mg –1 with 75% of this land rental payment; this conversion can result in savings of 0.52 and 1.25 billion Mg CO 2 -eq in life-cycle emissions through the displacement of energy-equivalent fossil fuels and coal-based electricity, respectively, and an additional 0.11 billion Mg CO 2 -eq soil carbon sequestration relative to the status quo, with CRP left unharvested over the 2016–2030 period. The soil carbon debt due to the transition from unharvested CRP land to energy crops is short-lived and more than offset by the reduction in fossil fuel emissions. The net discounted benefits from producing energy crops on CRP land through a reduced need for government payments to maintain existing enrollment, higher returns to CRP landowners, and the value of the reduction in GHG emissions could be as high as 16–30 billion by using them for cellulosic biofuels to displace gasoline and 35–68 billion by displacing coal-based electricity over the 2016–2030 period if biomass prices are 75–125 Mg –1 and land rental payments are reduced by 25%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

BEPAM-E Model Code and CABBI Simulation Results for "Repeal of the Clean Power Plan: Social Cost and Distributional Implications"

The dataset consists of results and various input data that are used in the GAMS model for the publication "Repeal of the Clean Power Plan: Social Cost and Distributional Implications". All the data are either excel files or in the .inc format which can be read within GAMS or Notepad. Main data sources include: agriculture, transportation and electricity data. Model details can be found in the paper and the GAMS model package.

carbon abatement↗
DOE OSTI2020

Farmers’ Perceptions of Marginal Land for Biofuel Crops

The dataset includes the survey results about farmers’ perceptions of marginal land availability and the likelihood of a land pixel being marginal based on a machine learning model trained from the survey. Two spreadsheet files are the farmer and farm characteristics (marginal_land_survey_data_shared.xlsx), and the existing land use of marginal lands (land_use_info_sharing.xlsx). Note: the blank cells in these two spreadsheets mean missing values in the survey response. The GeoTiff file includes two bands, one the marginal land likelihood in the Midwestern states (0-1), the other the dominant reason of land marginality (0-5; 0 for farm size, 1 for growing season precipitation, 2 for root zone soil water capacity, 3 for average slope, 4 for growing season mean temperature, and 5 for growing season diurnal range of temperature). To read the data, please use a GIS software such as ArcGIS or QGIS.

marginal land↗
DOE OSTI2020

BEPAM Model Code and CABBI Simulation Results for "Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel"

This dataset consists of various input data that are used in the GAMS model. All the data are in the format of .inc which can be read within GAMS or Notepad. Main data sources include: acreage data (acre), crop budget data ($/acre), crop yield data (e.g. bushel/acre), Soil carbon sequestration data (KgCO2/ha/yr). Model details can be found in the "Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel" and GAMS model package. ## File Description (1) GAMS Model.zip: This includes all the input files and scripts for running the model (2) Table*.csv: These files include the data from the tables in the manuscript (3) Figure2_3_4.csv: This contains the data used to create the figures in the manuscript (4) BaselineResults.csv: This includes a summary of the model results. (5) SensitivityResults_*.csv: Model results from the various sensitivity analyses performed (6) LUC_emission.csv: land use change emissions by crop reporting district for changes of pasturelands to annual crops.

Anticipated baseline approach↗
DOE OSTI2020

BEPAM Model Code and CABBI Simulation Results for "Assessing the Returns to Land and Greenhouse Gas Savings from Producing Energy Crops on Conservation Reserve Program Land"

This dataset contains BEPAM model code and input data to the replicate the results for "Assessing the Returns to Land and Greenhouse Gas Savings from Producing Energy Crops on Conservation Reserve Program Land." The dataset consists of: (1) The replication codes and data for the BEPAM model. The code file is named as output_0213-2020_Complete_daycent-agversion-[rental payment level]%_[biomass price].gms. (BEPAM-CRP model-Sep2020.zip) (2) Simulation results from the BEPAM model (BEPAM_Simulation_Results.csv) * Item (1) is in GAMS format. Item (2) is in text format.

biomass price↗