Engineering topics

Kinnison, D. E.

Publications and source records attributed to Kinnison, D. E..

12 records

NASA NTRS2014

Multimodel Estimates of Atmospheric Lifetimes of Long-lived Ozone-Depleting Substances: Present and Future

We have diagnosed the lifetimes of long-lived source gases emitted at the surface and removed in the stratosphere using six three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and a two-dimensional model. The models all used the same standard photochemical data. We investigate the effect of different definitions of lifetimes, including running the models with both mixing ratio (MBC) and flux (FBC) boundary conditions. Within the same model, the lifetimes diagnosed by different methods agree very well. Using FBCs versus MBCs leads to a different tracer burden as the implied lifetime contained in the MBC value does not necessarily match a model's own calculated lifetime. In general, there are much larger differences in the lifetimes calculated by different models, the main causes of which are variations in the modeled rates of ascent and horizontal mixing in the tropical midlower stratosphere. The model runs have been used to compute instantaneous and steady state lifetimes. For chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) their atmospheric distribution was far from steady state in their growth phase through to the 1980s, and the diagnosed instantaneous lifetime is accordingly much longer. Following the cessation of emissions, the resulting decay of CFCs is much closer to steady state. For 2100 conditions the model circulation speeds generally increase, but a thicker ozone layer due to recovery and climate change reduces photolysis rates. These effects compensate so the net impact on modeled lifetimes is small. For future assessments of stratospheric ozone, use of FBCs would allow a consistent balance between rate of CFC removal and model circulation rate

CFC↗

NASA NTRS2014

Multimodel Estimates of Atmospheric Lifetimes of Long-Lived Ozone-Depleting Substances: Present and Future

We have diagnosed the lifetimes of long-lived source gases emitted at the surface and removed in the stratosphere using six three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and a two-dimensional model. The models all used the same standard photochemical data. We investigate the effect of different definitions of lifetimes, including running the models with both mixing ratio (MBC) and flux (FBC) boundary conditions. Within the same model, the lifetimes diagnosed by different methods agree very well. Using FBCs versus MBCs leads to a different tracer burden as the implied lifetime contained in theMBC value does not necessarilymatch a model's own calculated lifetime. In general, there are much larger differences in the lifetimes calculated by different models, the main causes of which are variations in the modeled rates of ascent and horizontal mixing in the tropical midlower stratosphere. The model runs have been used to compute instantaneous and steady state lifetimes. For chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) their atmospheric distribution was far from steady state in their growth phase through to the 1980s, and the diagnosed instantaneous lifetime is accordingly much longer. Following the cessation of emissions, the resulting decay of CFCs is much closer to steady state. For 2100 conditions the model circulation speeds generally increase, but a thicker ozone layer due to recovery and climate change reduces photolysis rates. These effects compensate so the net impact on modeled lifetimes is small. For future assessments of stratospheric ozone, use of FBCs would allow a consistent balance between rate of CFC removal and model circulation rate.

CH3CCl3↗

NASA NTRS2013

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

tropospheric ozone↗

NASA NTRS2010

Multimodel Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution over the 21st Century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

Oman, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Stratospheric Ozone Over the 21st Century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an ensemble of opportunity of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for 10 ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21 st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations 15 return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Charlton-Perez, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Multi-Model Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution Over the 21st Century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from fourteen chemistry-climate models. There is general agreement among the models at the broadest levels, showing column ozone decreasing at all latitudes from 1960 to around 2000, then increasing at all latitudes over the first half of the 21st century, and latitudinal variations in the rate of increase and date of return to historical values. In the second half of the century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off or even decrease depending on the latitude, resulting in variable dates of return to historical values at latitudes where column ozone has declined below those levels. Separation into partial column above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely due to differences in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels before the end of the century, although there is a spread among the models in dates that ozone returns to historical values. Using multiple linear regression, we find decreasing halogens and increasing greenhouse gases contribute almost equally to increases in the upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere an increase in tropical upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in all models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels.

Oman, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Using Transport Diagnostics to Understand Chemistry Climate Model Ozone Simulations

We demonstrate how observations of N2O and mean age in the tropical and midlatitude lower stratosphere (LS) can be used to identify realistic transport in models. The results are applied to 15 Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 WMO assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O/mean age relationship identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. The use of this process-oriented N2O/mean age diagnostic identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. We compare the diagnosed model transport behavior with a model's ability to produce realistic LS O3 profiles in the tropics and midlatitudes. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems show the poorest agreement with observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the SPARC CCMVal Report (2010) to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60 S-60 N) and Antarctic column ozone. Later (earlier) Antarctic return dates are generally correlated to higher (lower) vortex Cl(sub y) levels in the LS, and vortex Cl(sub y) is generally correlated with the model's circulation although model Cl(sub y) chemistry or Cl(sub y) conservation can have a significant effect. In both regions, models that have good LS transport produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily large due to identifiable model transport deficiencies.

Strahan, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications

An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key findings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: (1) have not been responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40degN; (2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km; (3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause; and (4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/sq m and -0.013 W/sq m due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

Danilin, M. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications

An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key Endings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: (1) have not be responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40 deg N; (2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km; (3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause; and (4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/sq m and -0.013 W/sq m due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

Danilin, M. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Model study of atmospheric transport using carbon 14 and strontium 90 as inert tracers

The observed excess carbon 14 in the atmosphere from 1963 to 1970 provides unique, but limited, data up to an altitude of about 35 km for testing the air motions calculated by 11 multidimensional atmospheric models. Strontium 90 measurements in the atmosphere from 1964 to mid-1967 provide data that have more latitude coverage than those of carbon 14 and are useful for testing combined models of air motions and aerosol settling. Model calculations for carbon 14 begin at October 1963, 9 months after the conclusion of the nuclear bomb tests; the initial conditions for the calculations are derived by three methods, each of which agrees fairly well with measured carbon 14 in October 1963 and each of which has widely different values in regions of the stratosphere where there were no carbon 14 measurements. The model results are compared to the stratospheric measurements, not as if the observed data were absolute standards, but in an effort to obtain new insight about the models and about the atmosphere. The measured carbon 14 vertical profiles at 31 deg N are qualitatively different from all of the models; the measured vertical profiles show a maximum mixing ratio in the altitude range of 20 to 25 km from October 1963 through July 1966, but all modeled profiles show mixing ratio maxima that increase in altitude from 20 km in October 1963 to greater than 40 km by April 1966. Both carbon 14 and strontium 90 data indicate that the models differ substantially among themselves with respect to stratosphere-troposphere exchange rate, but the modeled carbon 14 stratospheric residence times indicate that differences among the models are small with respect to transport rate between the middle stratosphere and the lower stratosphere. Strontium 90 data indicate that aerosol settling is important up to at least 35 km altitude. Relative to the measurements, about three quarters of the models transport carbon 14 from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere too rapidly, and all models with all three sets of initial conditions appear to sweep carbon 14 out of the midstratosphere (above 28 km) much more slowly than was observed from 1963 to 1970. Atmospheric dynamicists should seriously consider that the carbon 14 measurements imply with respect to advection in the midstratosphere.

Kinnison, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Observations of lower-stratospheric ClONO2, HNO3, and aerosol by the UARS CLAES experiment between January 1992 and April 1993

This paper discusses simultaneous measurements of stratospheric ClONO2, HNO3, temperature, and aerosol extinction coefficient by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) on the NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), obtained over the period 9 January 1992 through 23 April 1993. The discussion concentrates on the stratosphere region near 21 km of particular interest to heterogeneously driven ozone depletion. For periods between 12 June and 1 September 1992 at latitudes poleward of about 60 deg S, when temperatures were below type I polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation thresholds throughout the lower stratosphere, CLAES observed high levels of PSCs coincident with highly depleted fields of both HNO3 and ClONO2. By 17 September, the incidence of PSCs had greatly diminished in the lower stratosphere, but both CLONO2 and HNO3 remained highly depleted. These observations are consistent with the removal of gaseous HNO3 through the formation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles and the removal of ClONO2 through heterogeneous reactions on the particle surfaces. They also suggest substantial denitrification of the lower Antarctic vortex through sedimentation of PSC particles. In the Northern Hemisphere winter of 1992/93 far fewer PSCs were observed in the Arctic lower-stratosphere vortex, which had shorter periods and more localized regions of cold temperatures. Both HNO3 and ClONO2 maintained much higher levels inside the Arctic vortex than seen in the Antarctic throughout the winter/spring period. Following 28 February 1993 when Arctic vortex temperatures rose above 195 K, ClONO2 was observed in large quantities (greater than 2.1 ppbv near 21 km) inside the vortex. The persistence of relatively high levels of HNO3 inside the Arctic spring vortex compared with the low levels seen in the Antarctic spring vortex suggest a much lower level of denitrification in the Arctic.

Roche, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Effect of vibrationally excited oxygen on ozone production in the stratosphere

Photolysis of vibrationally excited oxygen produced by ultraviolet photolysis of ozone in the upper stratosphere is incorporated into the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory two-dimensional zonally averaged chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The importance of this potential contributor of odd oxygen to the concentration of ozone is evaluated based on recent information on vibrational distributions of excited oxygen and on preliminary studies of energy transfer from the excited oxygen. When energy transfer rate constants similar to those of Toumi et al. (1991) are assumed, increases in model ozone concentrations of up to 4.0% in the upper stratosphere are found, and the model ozone concentrations are found to agree slightly better with measurements, including recent data from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. However, the ozone increase is only 0.3% when the larger energy transfer rate constants indicated by recent experimental work are applied to the model. An ozone increase of 1% at 50 km requires energy transfer rate constants one-twentieth those of the preliminary observations. As a result, vibrationally excited oxygen processes probably do not contribute enough ozone to be significant in models of the upper stratosphere.

Patten, K. O., Jr.↗