Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades
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Thorsten Mauritsen↗
Engineering topics
Kirsten L. Findell
Publications and source records attributed to Kirsten L. Findell.
Climate Extremes and Risks: Links Between Climate Science and Decision-Making
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.
climate extremes↗
Accurate Assessment of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in Climate Models Requires High Frequency Data Output
Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are important for understanding convective processes, climate feedbacks, the development and perpetuation of droughts, heatwaves, pluvials, and other land-centred climate anomalies. Local L-A coupling (LoCo) metrics capture relevant L-A processes, highlighting the impact of soil and vegetation states on surface flux partitioning, and the impact of surface fluxes on boundary layer (BL) growth, development, and entrainment of air above the BL. A primary goal of the Climate Process Team on Coupling Land and Atmospheric Subgrid Parameterizations (CLASP) is parameterizing and characterizing the impact of subgrid heterogeneity in global and regional earth system models (ESMs) to improve the connection between land and atmospheric states and processes. A critical step in achieving that aim is the incorporation of L-A metrics, especially LoCo metrics, into climate model diagnostic process streams. However, because land-atmosphere interactions span time scales of minutes (e.g., turbulent fluxes), hours (e.g., BL growth and decay), days (e.g., soil moisture memory), and seasons (e.g., variability of behavioural regimes between soil moisture and latent heat flux), with multiple processes of interest happening in different geographic regions at different times of year, there is not a single metric that captures all the modes, means, and methods of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. And while monthly means of most of the LoCo-relevant variables are routinely saved from ESM simulations, data storage constraints typically preclude routine archival of the hourly data that would enable the calculation of all LoCo metrics. Here we outline a reasonable data request that would allow for adequate characterization of sub-daily coupling processes between the land and the atmosphere, preserving enough sub-daily output to describe, analyse, and better understand L-A coupling in modern climate models. A secondary request involves embedding calculations within the models to determine mean properties in and above the BL to further improve characterization of model behaviour. Higher-frequency model output will (i) allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant time scales, (ii) enable demonstration of inter-model spread in L-A coupling processes, and (iii) aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.
Kirsten L. Findell↗
Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)
Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.
decadal climate↗