Engineering topics

Kitiashvili, I. N.

Publications and source records attributed to Kitiashvili, I. N..

8 records

NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: from Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-‐organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) рealistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-‐resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-‐scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Magneti↗

NASA NTRS2017

Realistic Modeling of Interaction of Quiet-Sun Magnetic Fields with the Chromosphere

High‐resolution observations and 3D MHD simulations reveal intense interaction between the convection zone dynamics and the solar atmosphere on subarcsecond scales. To investigate processes of the dynamical coupling and energy exchange between the subsurface layers and the chromosphere we perform 3D radiative MHD modeling for a computational domain that includes the upper convection zone and the chromosphere, and investigate the structure and dynamics for different intensity of the photospheric magnetic flux. For comparison with observations, the simulation models have been used to calculate synthetic Stokes profiles of various spectral lines. The results show intense energy exchange through small‐scale magnetized vortex tubes rooted below the photosphere, which provide extra heating of the chromosphere, initiate shock waves, and small‐scale eruptions.

quiet-sun↗

NASA NTRS2017

Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-‐based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 – 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 – 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

Data Assimilation↗

NASA NTRS2017

3D Realistic Modeling of the Interaction of Quiet-Sun Magnetic Fields with the Chromosphere

High-resolution observations and 3D simulations suggest that a local dynamo operates near the surface and produces ubiquitous small-scale magnetic elements, thus contributing to the magnetic carpet in the photosphere and to the magnetic structure and dynamics of the solar atmosphere. It appears that the traditional mechanisms of chromospheric energy and mass transport by acoustic waves and shocks are likely to play a secondary role; instead, the primary drivers in the energetics and dynamics of the chromosphere and transition region are small-scale, previously unresolved, quiet-Sun magnetic fields. These fields appear as ubiquitous, rapidly changing (on the scale of a few seconds), tiny magnetic loops and magnetized vortex tubes. Questions then arise about their origin and dynamics in the chromosphere, their links to magnetic fields in the photosphere, and their role in the energy storage and exchange between subsurface layers and the chromosphere. In the talk we will present results of 3D radiative MHD simulations obtained with the StellarBox code and discuss the energetics and dynamical interlinks between the subphotospheric layers and low chromosphere, their effects on the structure of the chromosphere, and signatures of the fine-scale magnetic features in high-resolution spectro-polarimetric observations.

Quie-Sun↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗

NASA NTRS2017

Realistic 3D Radiative Modeling of Turbulent Structure of Moderate-Mass Stars and Sun

Understanding the turbulent dynamics of the Sun and stars is a critical element for interpreting observed processes and phenomena on different scales and for predicting extreme events such as flares and super flares. High-‐resolution observations of the Sun and high-‐fidelity radiative MHD numerical simulations have substantially advanced our understanding of solar and stellar local dynamics and magnetism from the upper convection zone to the atmosphere and corona. However, global modeling of the Sun with such a high degree of realism is currently not affordable due to the extremely high computational cost of resolving the scales in the convection zone. The physics of the deep solar dynamics can be effectively addressed through modeling more massive solar-‐type stars where the convection zone is shallower and the convective overturning time is much shorter than those on the Sun. We present recent 3D realistic simulation results of moderate-‐mass stars and discuss links between solar and stellar dynamics, such as the multiscale structure of granulation, convective overshoot, and others. In particular, these simulations have provided better understanding of the dynamics of the tachocline (the overshoot layer at the bottom of the convection zone) and have explained long-‐ standing results from helioseismology.

Realistic↗