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Koblinsky, Chester

Publications and source records attributed to Koblinsky, Chester.

Design and Implementation of a Parallel Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Poseidon Ocean General Circulation Model

A multivariate ensemble Kalman filter (MvEnKF) implemented on a massively parallel computer architecture has been implemented for the Poseidon ocean circulation model and tested with a Pacific Basin model configuration. There are about two million prognostic state-vector variables. Parallelism for the data assimilation step is achieved by regionalization of the background-error covariances that are calculated from the phase-space distribution of the ensemble. Each processing element (PE) collects elements of a matrix measurement functional from nearby PEs. To avoid the introduction of spurious long-range covariances associated with finite ensemble sizes, the background-error covariances are given compact support by means of a Hadamard (element by element) product with a three-dimensional canonical correlation function. The methodology and the MvEnKF configuration are discussed. It is shown that the regionalization of the background covariances; has a negligible impact on the quality of the analyses. The parallel algorithm is very efficient for large numbers of observations but does not scale well beyond 100 PEs at the current model resolution. On a platform with distributed memory, memory rather than speed is the limiting factor.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗

The NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)

The goal of the project is to develop an assimilation and forecast system based on a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-surface-sea-ice model capable of using a combination of satellite and in situ data sources to improve the prediction of ENSO and other major S-I signals and their global teleconnections. The objectives of this annual report are to: (1) demonstrate the utility of satellite data, especially surface height surface winds, air-sea fluxes and soil moisture, in a coupled model prediction system; and (2) aid in the design of the observing system for short-term climate prediction by conducting OSSE's and predictability studies.

Rienecker, Michele↗

The Aquarius Mission: Sea Surface Salinity from Space

Aquarius is a new satellite mission concept to study the impact of the global water cycle on the ocean, including the response of the ocean to buoyancy forcing and the subsequent feedback of the ocean on the climate. The measurement objective of Aquarius is sea surface salinity, which reflects the concentration of freshwater at the ocean surface. Salinity affects the dielectric constant of sea water and, consequently, the radiometric emission of the sea surface to space. Rudimentary space observations with an L-band radiometer were first made from Skylab in the mid-70s and numerous aircraft missions of increasing quality and improved technology have been conducted since then. Technology is now available to carry out a global mission, which includes both an accurate L band (1.413 Ghz) radiometer and radar system in space and a global array of in situ observations for calibration and validation, in order to address key NASA Earth Science Enterprise questions about the global cycling of water and the response of the ocean circulation to climate change. The key scientific objectives of Aquarius examine the cycling of water at the ocean's surface, the response of the ocean circulation to buoyancy forcing, and the impact of buoyancy forcing on the ocean's thermal feedback to the climate. Global surface salinity will also improve our ability to model the surface solubility chemistry needed to estimate the air-sea exchange of CO2. In order to meet these science objectives, the NASA Salinity Sea Ice Working Group over the past three years has concluded that the mission measurement goals should be better than 0.2 practical salinity units (psu) accuracy, 100 km resolution, and weekly to revisits. The Aquarius mission proposes to meet these measurement requirements through a real aperture dual-polarized L band radiometer and radar system. This system can achieve the less than 0.1 K radiometric temperature measurement accuracy that is required. A 3 m antenna at approx. 600km altitude in a sun-synchronous orbit and 300 km swath can provide the desired 100 km resolution global coverage every week. Within this decade, it may be possible to combine satellite sea surface salinity measurements with ongoing satellite observations of temperature, surface height, air-sea fluxes; vertical profiles of temperature and salinity from the Argo program; and modern ocean/atmosphere modeling and data assimilation tools, in order to finally address the complex influence of buoyancy on the ocean circulation and climate.

Koblinsky, Chester↗

Arctic Sea Ice Export Through Fram Strait and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

A link is found between the variability of Arctic sea ice export through Ram Strait and the phase of the longest atmospheric planetary wave (zonal wave 1) in SLP for the period 1958-1997. Previous studies have identified a link between From Strait ice export and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but this link has been described as unstable because of a lack of consistency over time scales longer than the last two decades. Inconsistent and low correlations are also found between From Strait ice export and the Arctic Oscillation (AD) index. This paper shows that the phase of zonal wave 1 explains 60% - 70% of the simulated From Strait ice export variance over the Goodyear period 1958 - 1997. Unlike the NAB and AD links, these high variances are consistent for both the first and second halves of the Goodyear period. This consistency is attributed to the sensitivity of the wave I phase at high latitudes to the presence of secondary low pressure systems in the Barents Sea that serve to drive sea ice southward through From Strait. These results provide further evidence that the phase of zonal wave 1 in SLP at high latitudes drives regional as well as hemispheric low frequency Arctic Ocean and sea ice variability.

Cavalieri, Donald J.↗

Can the Topex/Poseidon Altimetry Data be Used to Estimate Air Sea Heat Flux in the North Atlantic?

We propose a novel approach to directly invert large-scale anomalous annual net air-sea heat flux from the Topex/Poseidon altimetry data in the North Atlantic. The major advantage of this new approach over the conventional bulk formula approach is that it does not need those climate parameters used in the conventional bulk formula calculation in estimating the large-scale anomalous annual net air-sea heat flux. Comparison with expendable bathythermograph data demonstrates that it is a feasible approach.

Wang, Liping↗