Engineering topics

Kocin, P. J.

Publications and source records attributed to Kocin, P. J..

18 records

NASA NTRS1986

Rapid evolution of a jet streak circulation in a pre-convective environment

An analysis of the April 10, 1979 Red River Valley severe weather outbreak, using a three-hourly rawinsonde network, indicates that the preconvection environment is influenced by upper-level and lower-level tropospheric jet streaks (ULJs and LLJs) that act to destabilize the atmosphere, and contribute to low-level heat and moisture transports and convergence that act to initiate the storm system. Transformation of an indirect circulation noted within the exit region of the ULJ at 1200 and 1500 GMT is observed within a six-hour period. Dramatic changes are found in the jet streak circulations over a short period of time as the system deviates from that approximated by the geostrophic momentum approximation, and these deviations suggest that adjustments asssociated with ULJs in this case could not be resolved using a simplified two-dimensional approach.

Kocin, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A mesoscale numerical forecast of an intense convective snowburst along the East Coast

Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for a convective snowburst in the Washington, D.C.-Baltimore, Maryland, region on March 8, 1984 that was associated with secondary cyclogenesis along the East Coast. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of a mesoscale model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic process for a wintertime convective event that was inadequately predicted by local forecasters and to note some of the possible benefits of using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting. The results from this and other recent mesoscale modeling studies indicate that three-hourly output of key model fields, when combined with other data sources, can be a valuable aid to forecasters concerned with predicting weather events that are mesoscale in character.

Kocin, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Synoptic scale forecast skill and systematic errors in the MASS 2.0 model

The synoptic scale performance characteristics of MASS 2.0 are determined by comparing filtered 12-24 hr model forecasts to same-case forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's synoptic-scale Limited-area Fine Mesh model. Characteristics of the two systems are contrasted, and the analysis methodology used to determine statistical skill scores and systematic errors is described. The overall relative performance of the two models in the sample is documented, and important systematic errors uncovered are presented.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A survey of major east coast snowstorms, 1960-1983. Part 2. Summary of surface and upperlevel characteristics

Surface and upper-level characteristics of selected meteorological fields are summarized. Two major types of sea level development are described and applied to the cases at hand, with a few storm systems showing characteristics of both types. Aspects such as rapid sea level deepening, coastal frontogenesis, cold air damming, low level jet formation, the development of an S-shaped isotherm pattern, diffluence downwind of a negatively tilted upper level trough axis, upper level confluence and an increase of geopotential heights at the base of the upper level trough characterized the pre-cyclogenetic and cyclogenetic periods of many of the storm systems. Large variability was also observed, especially with regard to the spatial dimensions of the surface and upper level systems, as well as variations in trough/ridge amplification and the evolution of upper level jet streak systems. The influence of transverse circulations associated with a confluent jet streak entrance region and the diffluent exit region of a jet streak/trough system on the production of snowfall is also discussed.

Kocin, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A survey of major east coast snowstorms, 1960-1983. Part 2: Case studies of eighteen storms

Snowfall, surface and upper air charts, and available satellite images are presented for eighteen major East Coast snowstorms that occurred between 1960 and 1983. The charts and descriptions of key fields are provided so that students, weather forecasters, and researchers alike can visualize how a large sample of major winter cyclones form and intensify. Although there are noted similarities in certain aspects of the surface and upper tropospheric development of the storms, significant case-to-case variability precludes the ability to effectively composite these weather systems.

Kocin, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Recent examples of mesoscale numerical forecasts of severe weather events along the east coast

Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for two East Coast severe weather events. The two events are the thunderstorm and heavy snow bursts in the Washington, D.C. - Baltimore, MD region on 8 March 1984 and the devastating tornado outbreak across North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic processes and to note some of the problems encountered when using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting.

Kocin, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The Presidents' Day cyclone of 18-19 February 1979 - Synoptic overview and analysis of the subtropical jet streak influencing the pre-cyclogenetic period

A detailed examination is undertaken of the subtropical jet (STJ) streak revealed by an analysis of the Presidents' Day cyclone of February 18-19, 1979. During its 24 h period, the STJ's flow became increasingly supergeostrophic and apparently unbalanced, while ageostrophic wind speeds increased to more than 30 m/sec in association with a significant cross-contour component, directed toward lower values of the Montgomery streamfunction, as the flow along the STJ became more divergent with time. These phenomena are linked to the increasing confluence in the entrance region of the jet streak and the decreasing wavelength of the trough-ridge system in which the jet streak was embedded. The upper level divergence and upward vertical motion near the axis of the STJ are found to be important factors in the development of the cyclone's first area of heavy snow.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A review of major east coast snowstorms

The surface and upper-level characteristics in selected wind, pressure, and temperature fields of some significant east coast cyclones are studied. The surface, 200, 300, 500, 700, and 850 mb charts of 18 case studies of storms are analyzed. The surface patterns are described in terms of the type of cyclone, the variation in rate of motion, the effect of coastal frontogenesis on the storms, sea level pressures, and the deepening rate of pressure. The influence of upper-level troughs, ridges, jet streaks, location of wind amplification, and time on cyclogenesis is examined.

Kocin, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

An analysis of the 'Blizzard of '88'

The analysis of the blizzard, an intense cyclone that was accompanied by unusually heavy snowfall, high winds, and cold temperatures, is carried out using a collection of detailed surface weather observations. It follows the cyclone from its genesis along a slow-moving frontal system through its rapid development and occlusion along the Middle Atlantic and southern New England coasts. Unusual aspects of the cyclone are discussed. Among these are the limited areal extent of heavy snow accumulations, the establishment of very cold air across western New England and the Middle Atlantic states, a persistent stationary front zone across central New England that separated frigid continental air from maritime air, and the slow movement and rapid warming associated with the decay of the storm.

Kocin, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

An interactive Barnes objective map analysis scheme for use with satellite and conventional data

The Barnes (1973) objective map analysis scheme is employed to develop an interactive analysis package for assessing the impact of satellite-derived data on analyses of conventional meteorological data sets. The method permits modification of the values of input parameters in the objective analysis within objectively determined, internally set limits. The effects of the manipulations are rapidly displayed, and methods are included for assimilating the spatially clustered characteristics of satellite data and the various horizontal resolutions of the data types. Data sets from the SESAME rawinsonde wind data with uniform spatial distribution, with the same data set plus satellite cloud motion data, and a data set from the atmospheric sounder radiometer on the GOES satellite were analyzed as examples. The scheme is demonstrated to recover details after two iterations through the data.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The GEMPAK Barnes interactive objective map analysis scheme

The analysis scheme and meteorological applications of the GEMPAK data analysis and display software system developed by NASA are described. The program was devised to permit objective, versatile, and practical analysis of satellite meteorological data using a minicomputer and a display system with graphics capability. A data area can be selected within the data file for the globe, and data-sparse regions can be avoided. Distances between observations and the nearest observation points are calculated in order to avoid errors when determining synoptic weather conditions. The Barnes (1973) successive correction method is employed to restore the amplitude of small yet resolvable wavelengths suppressed in an initial filtering pass. The rms deviation is then calculated in relation to available measured data. Examples are provided of treatment of VISSR data from the GOES satellite and a study of the impact of incorrect cloud height data on synoptic weather field analysis.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1983

An evaluation of the synoptic- and mesoscale predictability of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0) model

A report is presented regarding the synoptic- and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a regional-scale numerical weather prediction model known as the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS, Version 2.0). The development of this model has been discussed by Kaplan et al. (1982). An evaluation of the performance of MASS 2.0 is based on the study of a sample of approximately thirty 12 h and 24 h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns over the U.S. during spring and early summer of 1982. A description of model systems is provided, and synoptic-scale evaluation methods are considered along with aspects of mesoscale evaluation methodology, examples of coherent mesoscale information provided by MASS 2.0, the results of a diagnostic study of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), and the results of a limited real-time forecast experiment.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The GEMPAK Barnes objective analysis scheme

GEMPAK, an interactive computer software system developed for the purpose of assimilating, analyzing, and displaying various conventional and satellite meteorological data types is discussed. The objective map analysis scheme possesses certain characteristics that allowed it to be adapted to meet the analysis needs GEMPAK. Those characteristics and the specific adaptation of the scheme to GEMPAK are described. A step-by-step guide for using the GEMPAK Barnes scheme on an interactive computer (in real time) to analyze various types of meteorological datasets is also presented.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Mesoscale aspects of jet streak coupling and implications for the short term forecasting of severe convective storms

An analysis of a tornado outbreak in Wichita Falls, Texas was analyzed. The coupling of upper and lower tropospheric jet streaks, leading to severe storm outbreaks is illustrated. The high resolution SESAME data sets indicate that mass and momentum adjustments which couple upper and lower tropospheric jets occur within a 3 to 6 hr time frame over a 100 to 500 km domain, and establish the role of isallobaric forcing in the storm development. It is suggested that the output rate of data from the existing 12 hr network be increased to provide better temporal resolution of wind, mass and moisture data.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The President's Day cyclone 17-19 February 1979: An analysis of jet streak interactions prior to cyclogenesis

The President's Day cyclone, produced record breaking snowfall along the East Coast of the United States in February 1979. Conventional radiosonde data, SMS GOES infrared imagery and LFM 2 model diagnostics were used to analyze the interaction of upper and lower tropospheric jet streaks prior to cyclogenesis. The analysis reveals that a series of complex scale interactive processes is responsible for the development of the intense cyclone. The evolution of the subsynoptic scale mass and momentum fields prior to and during the period of rapid development of the President's Day cyclone utilizing conventional data and SMS GOES imagery is documented. The interaction between upper and lower tropospheric jet streaks which occurred prior to the onset of cyclogenesis is discussed as well as the possible effects of terrain modified airflow within the precyclogenesis environment. Possible deficiencies in the LFM-2 initial wind fields that could have been responsible, in part, for the poor numerical forecast are examined.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1981

An analysis of the LFM-11 simulations of the Presidents' Day Cyclone, February 18-19, 1979

The performance of the LFM-11 model is considered for the Presidents' Day Cyclone of 1979, noting particularly the model's forecast of upper and lower level jets. Model data are presented for three periods prior to cyclogenesis: (1) 0000 GMT 18 Feb. 1979; (2) 1200 GMT 18 Feb. 1979; and (3) 0000 GMT 19 Feb. 1979. The results show tha the model did not accurately simulate an indirect circulation for the noticeably supergeostrophic STJ on 18 February in response to the confluent PFJ located in the northeast. Future work will examine to what extent the model's poor performance is a function of poor boundary layer representation or poor jet streak simulation with respect to the STJ and LLJ.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Remote estimation of surface moisture over a watershed

The author has identified the following significant results. Contoured analyses of moisture availability, moisture flux, sensible heat flux, thermal inertia, and day and nighttime temperatures over a Missouri watershed for a date in June and in September show that forests and creeks exhibit the highest values of moisture availability, whereas farmlands and villages are relatively dry. The distribution of moisture availability over agricultural districts differs significantly between the two cases. This difference is attributed to a change in the surface's vegetative canopy between June and September, with higher moisture availabilities found in the latter case. Horizontal variations of moisture, however, do indicate some relationship between moisture availability and both local rainfall accumulations and the nature of the terrain.

Kocin, P. J.↗