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Krause, Elisabeth

Publications and source records attributed to Krause, Elisabeth.

At least 19 records

Joint analyses of lensing, clustering, and galaxy clusters with DES and LSST (Early Career Award DE-SC0020247 Final Report)

Final technical report for Early Career Award DE-SC0020247 "Joint analyses of lensing, clustering, and galaxy clusters with DES and LSST". This report summarizes contributions to Dark Energy Survey analyses of weak lensing, clustering, and galaxy clusters, and contributions to the development of LSST-DESC cosmology analysis pipelines.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Cluster cosmology without cluster finding

ABSTRACT We propose that observations of supermassive galaxies contain cosmological statistical constraining power similar to conventional cluster cosmology, and we provide promising indications that the associated systematic errors are comparably easier to control. We consider a fiducial spectroscopic and stellar mass complete sample of galaxies drawn from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and forecast how constraints on Ωm–σ8 from this sample will compare with those from number counts of clusters based on richness λ. At fixed number density, we find that massive galaxies offer similar constraints to galaxy clusters. However, a mass-complete galaxy sample from DESI has the potential to probe lower halo masses than standard optical cluster samples (which are typically limited to λ ≳ 20 and Mhalo ≳ 1013.5 M⊙ h−1); additionally, it is straightforward to cleanly measure projected galaxy clustering wp for such a DESI sample, which we show can substantially improve the constraining power on Ωm. We also compare the constraining power of M*-limited samples to those from larger but mass-incomplete samples [e.g. the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) sample]; relative to a lower number density M*-limited samples, we find that a BGS-like sample improves statistical constraints by 60 per cent for Ωm and 40 per cent for σ8, but this uses small-scale information that will be harder to model for BGS. Our initial assessment of the systematics associated with supermassive galaxy cosmology yields promising results. The proposed samples have a ∼10 per cent satellite fraction, but we show that cosmological constraints may be robust to the impact of satellites. These findings motivate future work to realize the potential of supermassive galaxies to probe lower halo masses than richness-based clusters and to potentially avoid persistent systematics associated with optical cluster finding.

(cosmology): large-scale structure of Universe↗

Cosmology from weak lensing, galaxy clustering, CMB lensing, and tSZ – I. 10 × 2pt modelling methodology

ABSTRACT The overlap of galaxy surveys and cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments presents an ideal opportunity for joint cosmological data set analyses. In this paper we develop a halo model-based method for the first joint analysis combining these two experiments using 10 correlated two-point functions (10 × 2pt) derived from galaxy position, galaxy shear, CMB lensing convergence, and Compton-y fields. We explore this method using the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Simons Observatory (SO) as examples. We find such LSS × CMB joint analyses lead to significant improvement in Figure-of-Merit of Ωm and S8 over the constraints from using LSS-only probes within Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model. We identify that the shear–y and y–y correlations are the most valuable additions when thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dolvich (tSZ) is included. We further identify the dominant sources of halo model uncertainties in the small-scale modelling, and investigate the impact of halo self-calibration due to the inclusion of small-scale tSZ information.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Primordial non-Gaussianity with angular correlation function: integral constraint and validation for DES

ABSTRACT Local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) is a promising observable of the underlying physics of inflation, characterized by $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$. We present the methodology to measure $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data using the two-point angular correlation function (ACF) with scale-dependent bias. One of the focuses of the work is the integral constraint (IC). This condition appears when estimating the mean number density of galaxies from the data and is key in obtaining unbiased $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ constraints. The methods are analysed for two types of simulations: ∼246 goliat-png N-body small area simulations with fNL equal to −100 and 100, and 1952 Gaussian ice-cola mocks with fNL = 0 that follow the DES angular and redshift distribution. We use the ensemble of goliat-png mocks to show the importance of the IC when measuring PNG, where we recover the fiducial values of fNL within the 1σ when including the IC. In contrast, we found a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 100 when not including it. For a DES-like scenario, we forecast a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 23, equivalent to 1.8σ, when not using the IC for a fiducial value of fNL = 100. We use the ice-cola mocks to validate our analysis in a realistic DES-like set-up finding it robust to different analysis choices: best-fitting estimator, the effect of IC, BAO damping, covariance, and scale choices. We forecast a measurement of fNL within σ(fNL) = 31 when using the DES-Y3 BAO sample, with the ACF in the 1 deg < θ < 20 deg range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Role of the Hubble scale in the weak lensing versus CMB tension

Here, we explore a reparametrization of the lensing amplitude tension between weak lensing (WL) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and its implications for a joint resolution with the Hubble tension. Specifically, we focus on the lensing amplitude over a scale of 12 Mpc in absolute distance units using a derived parameter S 12 and show its constraints from recent surveys in comparison with Planck 2018. In WL alone, we find that the absolute distance convention correlates S 12 with H 0 . Accounting for this correlation in the 3D space S 12 ×w m ×ℎ reproduces the usual levels of 2~3⁢σ tension inferred from S 8 ×Ω m . Additionally, we derive scaling relations in the S 8 ×ℎ and S 12 ×ℎ planes that are allowed by Λ⁢CDM and extrapolate target scalings needed to solve the H 0 and lensing-amplitude tensions jointly in a hypothetical beyond-Λ⁢CDM model. As a test example, we quantify how the early dark energy scenario compares with these target scalings. Useful fitting formulas for S 8 and S 12 as a function of other cosmological parameters in Λ⁢CDM are provided, with 1% precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The High Latitude Spectroscopic Survey on the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will conduct a High Latitude Spectroscopic Survey (HLSS) over a large volume at high redshift, using the near-IR grism (1.0–1.93 μm, R = 435–865) and the 0.28 deg 2 wide-field camera. We present a reference HLSS that maps 2000 deg 2 and achieves an emission-line flux limit of 10 -16 erg s -1 cm -2 at 6.5σ, requiring ~0.6 yr of observing time. We summarize the flowdown of the Roman science objectives to the science and technical requirements of the HLSS. We construct a mock redshift survey over the full HLSS volume by applying a semianalytic galaxy formation model to a cosmological N-body simulation and use this mock survey to create pixel-level simulations of 4 deg 2 of HLSS grism spectroscopy. We find that the reference HLSS would measure ~10 million H α galaxy redshifts that densely map large-scale structure at z = 1–2 and 2 million [O III] galaxy redshifts that sparsely map structures at z = 2–3. We forecast the performance of this survey for measurements of the cosmic expansion history with baryon acoustic oscillations and the growth of large-scale structure with redshift-space distortions. We also study possible deviations from the reference design and find that a deep HLSS at f line > 7 × 10 -17 erg s -1 cm -2 over 4000 deg 2 (requiring ~1.5 yr of observing time) provides the most compelling stand-alone constraints on dark energy from Roman alone. This provides a useful reference for future optimizations. The reference survey, simulated data sets, and forecasts presented here will inform community decisions on the final scope and design of the Roman HLSS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmology from clustering, cosmic shear, CMB lensing, and cross correlations: combining Rubin observatory and Simons Observatory

ABSTRACT In the near future, the overlap of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Simons Observatory (SO) will present an ideal opportunity for joint cosmological data set analyses. In this paper, we simulate the joint likelihood analysis of these two experiments using six two-point functions derived from galaxy position, galaxy shear, and CMB lensing convergence fields. Our analysis focuses on realistic noise and systematics models and we find that the dark energy Figure of merit (FoM) increases by 53 per cent (92 per cent) from LSST-only to LSST+SO in Year 1 (Year 6). We also investigate the benefits of using the same galaxy sample for both clustering and lensing analyses, and find the choice improves the overall signal to noise by ${\sim}30{-}40{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, which significantly improves the photo-z calibration and mildly improves the cosmological constraints. Finally, we explore the effects of catastrophic photo-z outliers finding that they cause significant parameter biases when ignored. We develop a new mitigation approach termed ‘island model’, which corrects a large fraction of the biases with only a few parameters while preserving the constraining power.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mitigating baryonic effects with a theoretical error covariance

ABSTRACT One of the primary sources of uncertainties in modelling the cosmic-shear power spectrum on small scales is the effect of baryonic physics. Accurate cosmology for stage-IV surveys requires knowledge of the matter power spectrum deep in the non-linear regime at the per cent level. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable mitigation techniques to take into account baryonic uncertainties if information from small scales is to be considered in the cosmological analysis. In this work, we develop a new mitigation method for dealing with baryonic physics for the case of the shear angular power spectrum. The method is based on an augmented covariance matrix that incorporates baryonic uncertainties informed by hydrodynamical simulations. We use the results from 13 hydrodynamical simulations and the residual errors arising from a fit to a ΛCDM model using the extended halo model code HMCode to account for baryonic physics. These residual errors are used to model a so-called theoretical error covariance matrix that is added to the original covariance matrix. In order to assess the performance of the method, we use the 2D tomographic shear from four hydrodynamical simulations that have different extremes of baryonic parameters as mock data and run a likelihood analysis comparing the residual bias on Ωm and σ8 of our method and the HMCode for an LSST-like survey. We use different modelling of the theoretical error covariance matrix to test the robustness of the method. We show that it is possible to reduce the bias in the determination of the tested cosmological parameters at the price of a modest decrease in the precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Combining information from multiple cosmological surveys: inference and modeling challenges

The tightest and most robust cosmological results of the next decade will be achieved by bringing together multiple surveys of the Universe. This endeavor has to happen across multiple layers of the data processing and analysis, e.g., enhancements are expected from combining Euclid, Rubin, and Roman (as well as other surveys) not only at the level of joint processing and catalog combination, but also during the post-catalog parts of the analysis such as the cosmological inference process. While every experiment builds their own analysis and inference framework and creates their own set of simulations, cross-survey work that homogenizes these efforts, exchanges information from numerical simulations, and coordinates details in the modeling of astrophysical and observational systematics of the corresponding datasets is crucial.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark energy survey year 1 results: Constraining baryonic physics in the Universe

ABSTRACT Measurements of large-scale structure are interpreted using theoretical predictions for the matter distribution, including potential impacts of baryonic physics. We constrain the feedback strength of baryons jointly with cosmology using weak lensing and galaxy clustering observables (3 × 2pt) of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 data in combination with external information from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and Planck cosmic microwave background polarization. Our baryon modelling is informed by a set of hydrodynamical simulations that span a variety of baryon scenarios; we span this space via a Principal Component (PC) analysis of the summary statistics extracted from these simulations. We show that at the level of DES Y1 constraining power, one PC is sufficient to describe the variation of baryonic effects in the observables, and the first PC amplitude (Q1) generally reflects the strength of baryon feedback. With the upper limit of Q1 prior being bound by the Illustris feedback scenarios, we reach $\sim 20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ improvement in the constraint of $S_8=\sigma _8(\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.788^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$ compared to the original DES 3 × 2pt analysis. This gain is driven by the inclusion of small-scale cosmic shear information down to 2.5 arcmin, which was excluded in previous DES analyses that did not model baryonic physics. We obtain $S_8=0.781^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ for the combined DES Y1+Planck EE+BAO analysis with a non-informative Q1 prior. In terms of the baryon constraints, we measure $Q_1=1.14^{+2.20}_{-2.80}$ for DES Y1 only and $Q_1=1.42^{+1.63}_{-1.48}$ for DESY1+Planck EE+BAO, allowing us to exclude one of the most extreme AGN feedback hydrodynamical scenario at more than 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Combination of cluster number counts and two-point correlations: validation on mock Dark Energy Survey

ABSTRACT We present a method of combining cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations, namely galaxy clustering, galaxy–cluster cross-correlations, cluster autocorrelations, and cluster lensing. This data vector yields comparable cosmological constraints to traditional analyses that rely on small-scale cluster lensing for mass calibration. We use cosmological survey simulations designed to resemble the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES-Y1) data to validate the analytical covariance matrix and the parameter inferences. The posterior distribution from the analysis of simulations is statistically consistent with the absence of systematic biases detectable at the precision of the DES-Y1 experiment. We compare the χ2 values in simulations to their expectation and find no significant difference. The robustness of our results against a variety of systematic effects is verified using a simulated likelihood analysis of DES-Y1-like data vectors. This work presents the first-ever end-to-end validation of a cluster abundance cosmological analysis on galaxy catalogue level simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Localizing Transformations of the Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing Observable

Modern cosmological analyses of galaxy-galaxy lensing face a theoretical systematic effect arising from the nonlocality of the observed galaxy-galaxy lensing signal. Because the predicted tangential shear signal at a given separation depends on the physical modeling on all scales internal to that separation, systematic uncertainties in the modeling of nonlinear small scales are propagated outward to larger scales. Even in the absence of other limiting factors, this systematic effect alone can necessitate conservative small-scale cuts, resulting in significant losses of information in the tangential shear data vector. We develop a simple linear transformation of the standard galaxy-galaxy observable that removes this nonlocality, which ensures that the cosmological signal contained within the transformed observable is exclusively drawn from well-understood physical scales. This new observable, through its robustness against nonlocality, also enables a significant extension in the range of usable scales in galaxy-galaxy lensing compared to the standard approach in current cosmological analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Discovery of a Candidate Binary Supermassive Black Hole in a Periodic Quasar from Circumbinary Accretion Variability

Binary supermassive black holes (BSBHs) are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave (GW) siren, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P=1607±7 days) at 99.95% significance (with a global p-value of ~10 –3 accounting for the look elsewhere effect) in the optical light curves of a redshift 1.53 quasar, SDSS J025214.67–002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, sensitive imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ~20-yr time baseline spans ~4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best fit by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate modulation by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting GWs, dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302–102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

2D-FFTLog: efficient computation of real-space covariance matrices for galaxy clustering and weak lensing

ABSTRACT Accurate covariance matrices for two-point functions are critical for inferring cosmological parameters in likelihood analyses of large-scale structure surveys. Among various approaches to obtaining the covariance, analytic computation is much faster and less noisy than estimation from data or simulations. However, the transform of covariances from Fourier space to real space involves integrals with two Bessel integrals, which are numerically slow and easily affected by numerical uncertainties. Inaccurate covariances may lead to significant errors in the inference of the cosmological parameters. In this paper, we introduce a 2D-FFTLog algorithm for efficient, accurate, and numerically stable computation of non-Gaussian real-space covariances for both 3D and projected statistics. The 2D-FFTLog algorithm is easily extended to perform real-space bin-averaging. We apply the algorithm to the covariances for galaxy clustering and weak lensing for a Dark Energy Survey Year 3-like and a Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time Year 1-like survey, and demonstrate that for both surveys, our algorithm can produce numerically stable angular bin-averaged covariances with the flat sky approximation, which are sufficiently accurate for inferring cosmological parameters. The code CosmoCov for computing the real-space covariances with or without the flat-sky approximation is released along with this paper.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Beyond Limber: efficient computation of angular power spectra for galaxy clustering and weak lensing

Angular two-point statistics of large-scale structure observables are important cosmological probes. To reach the high accuracy required by the statistical precision of future surveys, some of these statistics may need to be computed without the commonly employed Limber approximation; the exact computation however requires integration over Bessel functions, and a brute-force evaluation is slow to converge. Here, we present a new method based on our generalized FFTLog algorithm for the efficient computation of angular power spectra beyond the Limber approximation. The new method significantly simplifies the calculation and improves the numerical speed and stability. It is easily extended to handle integrals involving derivatives of Bessel functions, making it equally applicable to numerically more challenging cases such as contributions from redshift-space distortions and Doppler effects. We implement our method for galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing power spectra. We find that using the Limber approximation for galaxy clustering in future analyses like LSST Year 1 and DES Year 6 may cause significant biases in cosmological parameters, indicating that going beyond the Limber approximation is necessary for these analyses.

weak gravitational lensing↗

The Curious Case of PHL 293B: A Long-lived Transient in a Metal-poor Blue Compact Dwarf Galaxy

We report on small-amplitude optical variability and recent dissipation of the unusually persistent broad emission lines in the blue compact dwarf galaxy PHL 293B. The galaxy’s unusual spectral features (P Cygni-like profiles with ~800 km s -1 blueshifted absorption lines) have resulted in conflicting interpretations of the nature of this source in the literature. However, analysis of new Gemini spectroscopy reveals the broad emission has begun to fade after being persistent for over a decade prior. Precise difference imaging light curves constructed with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Dark Energy Survey reveal small-amplitude optical variability of ~0.1 mag in the g band offset by 100 ± 21 pc from the brightest pixel of the host. The light curve is well-described by an active galactic nuclei (AGN)-like damped random walk process. However, we conclude that the origin of the optical variability and spectral features of PHL 293B is due to a long-lived stellar transient, likely a Type IIn supernova or nonterminal outburst, mimicking long-term AGN-like variability. This work highlights the challenges of discriminating between scenarios in such extreme environments, relevant to searches for AGNs in dwarf galaxies. This is the second long-lived transient discovered in a blue compact dwarf, after SDSS1133. Furthermore, our result implies such long-lived stellar transients may be more common in metal-deficient galaxies. Systematic searches for low-level variability in dwarf galaxies will be possible with the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Inflation and Dark Energy from spectroscopy at $\mathcal{z} > 2$

The expansion of the Universe is understood to have accelerated during two epochs: in its very first moments during a period of Inflation and much more recently, at $\mathcal{z} < 1$, when Dark Energy is hypothesized to drive cosmic acceleration. The undiscovered mechanisms behind these two epochs represent some of the most important open problems in fundamental physics. Most of the processes involved during Inflation impact observations on the very largest spatial scales. Traditionally, these have been accessed through observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). While very powerful, the CMB originates from a 2D surface and the finite number of modes that it contains will largely be measured by experiments over the next decade. Observations of large 3D volumes with large-scale structure (LSS) access similar scales and will dramatically increase the number of available modes. For example, LSS observations in the range $2 \lesssim z \lesssim 5$ can more than triple the volume surveyed at $z \lesssim 2$, and, together with the sufficiently high galaxy number in this interval, strongly motivates a future spectroscopic survey that exploits this opportunity. In addition, tomography allows mapping the growth of structure with redshift, which provides robust constraints on Dark Energy and neutrino masses while relaxing restrictive assumptions such as a power-law primordial power spectrum. Finally, cross-correlation with external tracers, such as CMB lensing, Intensity Mapping or the Lyman-$\alpha$ forest, immunises the constraints to the systematics that make measurement challenging and further improves the precision through ‘sample variance cancellation’ and degeneracy breaking.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗