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Kroll, Kayla

Publications and source records attributed to Kroll, Kayla.

Utah FORGE: Triaxial Direct Shear Results - February 2025

This dataset contains results from nine triaxial direct shear tests conducted by Los Alamos National Laboratory on samples from FORGE Well 16A(78)-32. The primary objectives of this work were to determine the shear strength in both intact and residual states, evaluate dilation against displacement, assess permeability in relation to displacement, time, and normal stress, understand the relationship between aperture and normal stress, and monitor the effluent chemistry as a function of time. The data includes time-series measurements of stress, displacement, permeability, and effluent chemistry, with and without experimental dilution corrections. Additional materials include profilometry data, photographic documentation of the experimental setups and apparatus, and test notes. The dataset is organized into folders corresponding to each test, containing hydromechanical data, effluent chemistry measurements, and images. The hydromechanical data consists of detailed time-series records capturing parameters such as shear force, confining pressure, permeability, and temperature. Effluent chemistry data tracks fluid composition changes over time. Also included are conference papers, presentation slides, and a summary document outlining the experiments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

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Utah FORGE 5-2428: Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, presented by Kayla Kroll. This presentation addresses testing and modelling related to the dependency of EGS production on sustained permeability and sufficient fluid flow through pre-existing or induced fractures in hot rock. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 13, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Introduction to special section: Induced seismicity

Induced seismicity refers to earthquakes related to anthropogenic activities such as wastewater disposal, hydraulic fracturing, and geothermal energy production. In Oklahoma, wastewater disposal is considered to have caused more than 100 earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above (M4+) since 2010. Similarly, over 50 such events have been recorded in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico. Additionally, some of these earthquakes have magnitudes exceeding 5.0, including a magnitude 5.8 event in Pawnee, Oklahoma, in a magnitude 5.6 event in the Peace River Oil Sands Area in Alberta, and a magnitude 5.4 event in the Delaware Basin of Texas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Utah FORGE 5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior project by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, presented by Dr. Kayla A. Kroll. The project's objective is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Utah FORGE: Powder X-ray Diffraction Data from Well 16A(78)-32 Core

This dataset from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) consists of four raw X-ray diffraction (XRD) scans and preliminary results of quantitative XRD analysis. The scanned samples were prepared from four subcores, which came from various depths of the FORGE well 16A(78)-32 core. Desired core lengths were selected from available core photos (on GDR), provided by FORGE personnel, and subcored at LLNL. The XRD scans were collected in May 2023 at LLNL as pre-experimental characterization data for these subcores, which will be used in core-flooding experiments at LLNL and in triaxial direct shear experiments at Los Alamos National Laboratory as part of DOE Project 5-2428. XRD scans are in RAW file format (e.g., FORGE-5477-full.raw) and are suitable for viewing and analysis using open-source quantitative XRD software (e.g., Profex; www.profex-xrd.org ) and/or other proprietary instrument software.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Refining Principal Stress Measurements in Reservoir Underburden in Regions of Induced Seismicity through Seismological Tools, Laboratory Experiments - Final Technical Report

This project developed methodologies to measure the in-situ principal stress in the deep subsurface through use of multiple independent, but complementary, seismic methods, laboratory verification, and development of theoretical frameworks. By leveraging existing regional and local datasets we developed, tested, and refined a set of diagnostic tools for determining the in-situ stress state with reduced uncertainty at and below reservoir depths (1.5-6 km). A set of novel tools was produced that are scale independent, such that their utility is equivalent on regional, field scale, and near borehole monitoring of principal stresses in reservoir underburden for carbon storage projects. During a 4-year Department of Energy (DOE) and Southern Company funded project, carried out by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the University of Oklahoma (OU), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the project team developed methodologies to measure the far-field in-situ principal stress in the deep subsurface, leveraging induced seismicity data from waste-water disposal projects. These methodologies consisted in the use of well-established and technically advanced seismic processing methods, such as virtual seismometer method-moment tensor (VSM-MT) and shear wave splitting (SWS), that are adept at recovering the stress orientation and certain components of the stress tensor. These methods were applied to robust seismicity catalogs created with matched filter techniques near sites of active fluid disposal—a proxy for carbon storage sites where such datasets are more limited. Estimates of the stress orientation made with seismic processing tools were considered along with laboratory acoustic emission experiments conducted on rock samples from the region of interest. Stress orientations in the studied region do not vary significantly across distances of ~100 km, nor are they found to rotate through time as a consequence of local wastewater disposal, as previously speculated. Finally, the project team investigated the trade-offs among the different seismic methods and evaluated the range of uncertainty that is generated with these methodologies, which led to a practical use and refinement of the VSM-MT technique when it is applied to field datasets. Understanding the trade-offs between these different methods highlighted the potential benefits of improved quantification of uncertainties on stress field estimations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity

The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity toolkit “ORION” (ORION) is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit which is geared towards helping operators understand the seismic hazard (i.e., probabilistic assessment of the magnitude and frequency of induced seismic events) at a site. ORION analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection and suggests possible mitigation strategies to employ if an earthquake that exceeds certain threshold is observed. Through its ensemble modeling approach, ORION leverages the benefits of statistical-, physics-, and machine learning-based forecasting methodologies, while reducing the impact of each model’s respective limitations. The ORION toolkit consists of an easy-to-use GUI interface that affords a user as much or as little interaction as desired. Advanced capabilities allow the user to upload local, high-precision earthquake catalogs, projected injection profiles and/or spatiotemporal estimates of pressure/stress, and to tune various model parameters. ORION will then provide a spatial and temporal ensemble forecast of seismicity defined as the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake magnitude over a forecast period. Additionally, ORION will provide probability distribution of the statistically derived maximum possible earthquake magnitude that may be expected. Finally, ORION will provide suggested operational management strategies (e.g. reduce injection volumes at specific wells) based on the level of hazard.

NRAP,NRAP Tools,ORION,Operational Forcasting of In↗