Engineering topics

Kulkarni, Pandurang M.

Publications and source records attributed to Kulkarni, Pandurang M..

4 records

NASA NTRS2000

Reliability of Space-Shuttle Pressure Vessels with Random Batch Effects

In this article we revisit the problem of estimating the joint reliability against failure by stress rupture of a group of fiber-wrapped pressure vessels used on Space-Shuttle missions. The available test data were obtained from an experiment conducted at the U.S. Department of Energy Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLL) in which scaled-down vessels were subjected to life testing at four accelerated levels of pressure. We estimate the reliability assuming that both the Shuttle and LLL vessels were chosen at random in a two-stage process from an infinite population with spools of fiber as the primary sampling unit. Two main objectives of this work are: (1) to obtain practical estimates of reliability taking into account random spool effects and (2) to obtain a realistic assessment of estimation accuracy under the random model. Here, reliability is calculated in terms of a 'system' of 22 fiber-wrapped pressure vessels, taking into account typical pressures and exposure times experienced by Shuttle vessels. Comparisons are made with previous studies. The main conclusion of this study is that, although point estimates of reliability are still in the 'comfort zone,' it is advisable to plan for replacement of the pressure vessels well before the expected Lifetime of 100 missions per Shuttle Orbiter. Under a random-spool model, there is simply not enough information in the LLL data to provide reasonable assurance that such replacement would not be necessary.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Development of Countermeasures and Exercise Protocols to Reduce the Effects of Microgravity

I have helped scientists at NASA-JSC in analyzing data from many projects. Some of the major ones are: (1) cardiovascular responses to lower body negative pressure (LBNP) following bed rest, (2) the effects of dietary sodium, (3) in-flight cycle exercise mitigates reduced oxygen consumption at submaximal heart rates following space flight, (4) exercise thermoregulation after 13 days of head down bed rest, and (5) bed rest induced orthostatic intolerance. Many of the projects have now been completed and some of them are in the process of being published and others have been presented at national meetings. These projects have helped me be a true statistician and given me a real-life perspective of how interesting and complicated data can be. As a by-product of of these involvements I have been able to write and publish some methodological research that have applications in NASA and elsewhere. For instance, while I was at JSC, I happened to meet Dr. Al Feiveson and got into a discussion of the Space Shuttle Reliability. This led us to rethink about the way the data on the accelerated life testing of space shuttle pressure vessels had been analyzed. This has resulted in a major statistical paper and the paper has appeared in one of the top journals in the field of Statistics. A review of the paper by the editor of the journal was published in AmStatNews, a copy is attached with this report. I have presented these findings at the national/international statistics conference and at other places. I have also written another paper on reliability and a paper on calibration techniques that have applications in the engineering and the biomedical branches of NASA. Further, I am currently in the process of writing at least two more papers that have direct applications in NASA related studies.

Kulkarni, Pandurang M.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Multiple Use One-Sided Hypotheses Testing in Univariate Linear Calibration

Consider a normally distributed response variable, related to an explanatory variable through the simple linear regression model. Data obtained on the response variable, corresponding to known values of the explanatory variable (i.e., calibration data), are to be used for testing hypotheses concerning unknown values of the explanatory variable. We consider the problem of testing an unlimited sequence of one sided hypotheses concerning the explanatory variable, using the corresponding sequence of values of the response variable and the same set of calibration data. This is the situation of multiple use of the calibration data. The tests derived in this context are characterized by two types of uncertainties: one uncertainty associated with the sequence of values of the response variable, and a second uncertainty associated with the calibration data. We derive tests based on a condition that incorporates both of these uncertainties. The solution has practical applications in the decision limit problem. We illustrate our results using an example dealing with the estimation of blood alcohol concentration based on breath estimates of the alcohol concentration. In the example, the problem is to test if the unknown blood alcohol concentration of an individual exceeds a threshold that is safe for driving.

Krishnamoorthy, K.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Reliability Stress-Strength Models for Dependent Observations with Applications in Clinical Trials

We consider the applications of stress-strength models in studies involving clinical trials. When studying the effects and side effects of certain procedures (treatments), it is often the case that observations are correlated due to subject effect, repeated measurements and observing many characteristics simultaneously. We develop maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and uniform minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) of the reliability which in clinical trial studies could be considered as the chances of increased side effects due to a particular procedure compared to another. The results developed apply to both univariate and multivariate situations. Also, for the univariate situations we develop simple to use lower confidence bounds for the reliability. Further, we consider the cases when both stress and strength constitute time dependent processes. We define the future reliability and obtain methods of constructing lower confidence bounds for this reliability. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to evaluate all the procedures developed and also to compare the MLE and the UMVUE.

Kushary, Debashis↗