NEW RESULTS WITH SRNL'S VAISALA CL31 CEILOMETER
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Kurzeja, R.↗
Engineering topics
Kurzeja, R.
Publications and source records attributed to Kurzeja, R..
Evaluation and Uncertainty of a New Method to Detect Suspected Nuclear and WMD Activity: Project Report
The Atmospheric Technology Group at SRNL developed a new method to detect signals from Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) activities in a time series of chemical measurements at a downwind location. This method was tested with radioxenon measured in Russia and Japan after the 2013 underground test in North Korea. This LDRD calculated the uncertainty in the method with the measured data and also for a case with the signal reduced to 1/10 its measured value. The research showed that the uncertainty in the calculated probability of origin from the NK test site was small enough to confirm the test. The method was also wellbehaved for small signal strengths.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques
Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Optimized Sampling Strategies For Non-Proliferation Monitoring: Report
Concentration data collected from the 2013 H-Canyon effluent reprocessing experiment were reanalyzed to improve the source term estimate. When errors in the model-predicted wind speed and direction were removed, the source term uncertainty was reduced to 30% of the mean. This explained the factor of 30 difference between the source term size derived from data at 5 km and 10 km downwind in terms of the time history of dissolution. The results show a path forward to develop a sampling strategy for quantitative source term calculation.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗