Engineering topics

Kustowski, Bogdan (ORCID:0000000320853206)

Publications and source records attributed to Kustowski, Bogdan (ORCID:0000000320853206).

3 records

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven prediction of scaling and ignition of inertial confinement fusion experiments

Recent advances in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), including ignition and energy gain, are enabled by a close coupling between experiments and high-fidelity simulations. Neither simulations nor experiments can fully constrain the behavior of ICF implosions on their own, meaning pre- and postshot simulation studies must incorporate experimental data to be reliable. Linking past data with simulations to make predictions for upcoming designs and quantifying the uncertainty in those predictions has been an ongoing challenge in ICF research. We have developed a data-driven approach to prediction and uncertainty quantification that combines large ensembles of simulations with Bayesian inference and deep learning. The approach builds a predictive model for the statistical distribution of key performance parameters, which is jointly informed by past experiments and physics simulations. The prediction distribution captures the impact of experimental uncertainty, expert priors, design changes, and shot-to-shot variations. We have used this new capability to predict a 10× increase in ignition probability between Hybrid-E shots driven with 2.05 MJ compared to 1.9 MJ, and validated our predictions against subsequent experiments. We describe our new Bayesian postshot and prediction capabilities, discuss their application to NIF ignition and validate the results, and finally investigate the impact of data sparsity on our prediction results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Toward digital design at the exascale: An overview of project ICECap

High performance computing has entered the Exascale Age. Capable of performing over 1018 floating point operations per second, exascale computers, such as El Capitan, the National Nuclear Security Administration's first, have the potential to revolutionize the detailed in-depth study of highly complex science and engineering systems. However, in addition to these kind of whole machine “hero” simulations, exascale systems could also enable new paradigms in digital design by making petascale hero runs routine. Currently, untenable problems in complex system design, optimization, model exploration, and scientific discovery could all become possible. Motivated by the challenge of uncovering the next generation of robust high-yield inertial confinement fusion (ICF) designs, project ICECap (Inertial Confinement on El Capitan) attempts to integrate multiple advances in machine learning (ML), scientific workflows, high performance computing, GPU-acceleration, and numerical optimization to prototype such a future. Built on a general framework, ICECap is exploring how these technologies could broadly accelerate scientific discovery on El Capitan. In addition to our requirements, system-level design, and challenges, we describe some of the key technologies in ICECap, including ML replacements for multiphysics packages, tools for human-machine teaming, and algorithms for multifidelity design optimization under uncertainty. As a test of our prototype pre-El Capitan system, we advance the state-of-the art for ICF hohlraum design by demonstrating the optimization of a 17-parameter National Ignition Facility experiment and show that our ML-assisted workflow makes design choices that are consistent with physics intuition, but in an automated, efficient, and mathematically rigorous fashion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transformer-powered surrogates close the ICF simulation-experiment gap with extremely limited data

Abstract Recent advances in machine learning, specifically transformer architecture, have led to significant advancements in commercial domains. These powerful models have demonstrated superior capability to learn complex relationships and often generalize better to new data and problems. This paper presents a novel transformer-powered approach for enhancing prediction accuracy in multi-modal output scenarios, where sparse experimental data is supplemented with simulation data. The proposed approach integrates transformer-based architecture with a novel graph-based hyper-parameter optimization technique. The resulting system not only effectively reduces simulation bias, but also achieves superior prediction accuracy compared to the prior method. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on inertial confinement fusion experiments, where only 10 shots of real-world data are available, as well as synthetic versions of these experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗