Engineering topics

Kuznetsova, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Kuznetsova, M..

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS2017

The Substorm Cycle as Reproduced by Global MHD Models

Recently, Gordeev et al. (2015) suggested a method to test global MHD models against statistical empirical data. They showed that four community-available global MHD models supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) produce a reasonable agreement with reality for those key parameters (the magnetospheric size, magnetic field, and pressure) that are directly related to the large-scale equilibria in the outer magnetosphere. Based on the same set of simulation runs, here we investigate how the models reproduce the global loading-unloading cycle. We found that in terms of global magnetic flux transport, three examined CCMC models display systematically different response to idealized2 h north then 2 h south interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz variation. The LFM model shows a depressed return convection and high loading rate during the growth phase as well as enhanced return convection and high unloading rate during the expansion phase, with the amount of loaded unloaded magnetotail flux and the growth phase duration being the closest to their observed empirical values during isolated substorms. Two other models exhibit drastically different behavior. In the BATS-R-US model the plasma sheet convection shows a smooth transition to the steady convection regime after the IMF southward turning. In the Open GGCM a weak plasma sheet convection has comparable intensities during both the growth phase and the following slow unloading phase. We also demonstrate potential technical problem in the publicly available simulations which is related to post processing interpolation and could affect the accuracy of magnetic field tracing and of other related procedures.

Gordeev, E.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Community-Wide Validation of Geospace Model Local K-Index Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPCs effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

Glocer, A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Nongyrotropic Electrons in Guide Field Reconnection

We apply a scalar measure of nongyrotropy to the electron pressure tensor in a 2D particle-in-cell simulation of guide field reconnection and assess the corresponding electron distributions and the forces that account for the nongyrotropy. The scalar measure reveals that the nongyrotropy lies in bands that straddle the electron diffusion region and the separatrices, in the same regions where there are parallel electric fields. Analysis of electron distributions and fields shows that the nongyrotropy along the inflow and outflow separatrices emerges as a result of multiple populations of electrons influenced differently by large and small-scale parallel electric fields and by gradients in the electric field. The relevant parallel electric fields include large-scale potential ramps emanating from the x-line and sub-ion inertial scale bipolar electron holes. Gradients in the perpendicular electric field modify electrons differently depending on their phase, thus producing nongyrotropy. Magnetic flux violation occurs along portions of the separatrices that coincide with the parallel electric fields. An inductive electric field in the electron EB drift frame thus develops, which has the effect of enhancing nongyrotropies already produced by other mechanisms and under certain conditions producing their own nongyrotropy. Particle tracing of electrons from nongyrotropic populations along the inflows and outflows shows that the striated structure of nongyrotropy corresponds to electrons arriving from different source regions. We also show that the relevant parallel electric fields receive important contributions not only from the nongyrotropic portion of the electron pressure tensor but from electron spatial and temporal inertial terms as well.

Parallel Electric Fields↗

NASA NTRS2015

Orientation of X Lines in Asymmetric Magnetic Reconnection-Mass Ratio Dependency

Using fully kinetic simulations, we study the X line orientation of magnetic reconnection in an asymmetric configuration. A spatially localized perturbation is employed to induce a single X line, which has sufficient freedom to choose its orientation in three-dimensional systems. The effect of ion to electron mass ratio is investigated, and the X line appears to bisect the magnetic shear angle across the current sheet in the large mass ratio limit. The orientation can generally be deduced by scanning through the corresponding 2-D simulations to find the reconnection plane that maximizes the peak reconnection electric field. The deviation from the bisection angle in the lower mass ratio limit is consistent with the orientation shift of the most unstable linear tearing mode in an electron-scale current sheet.

Reconnection↗

NASA NTRS2013

Community-wide Validation of Geospace Model Ground Magnetic Field Perturbation Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

In this paper we continue the community-wide rigorous modern space weather model validation efforts carried out within GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. In this particular effort, in coordination among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), modelers, and science community, we focus on studying the models' capability to reproduce observed ground magnetic field fluctuations, which are closely related to geomagnetically induced current phenomenon. One of the primary motivations of the work is to support NOAA SWPC in their selection of the next numerical model that will be transitioned into operations. Six geomagnetic events and 12 geomagnetic observatories were selected for validation.While modeled and observed magnetic field time series are available for all 12 stations, the primary metrics analysis is based on six stations that were selected to represent the high-latitude and mid-latitude locations. Events-based analysis and the corresponding contingency tables were built for each event and each station. The elements in the contingency table were then used to calculate Probability of Detection (POD), Probability of False Detection (POFD) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for rigorous quantification of the models' performance. In this paper the summary results of the metrics analyses are reported in terms of POD, POFD and HSS. More detailed analyses can be carried out using the event by event contingency tables provided as an online appendix. An online interface built at CCMC and described in the supporting information is also available for more detailed time series analyses.

MAGNETIC↗

NASA NTRS2012

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

Models are key elements of space weather forecasting. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) hosts a broad range of state-of-the-art space weather models and enables access to complex models through an unmatched automated web-based runs-on-request system. Model output comparisons with observational data carried out by a large number of CCMC users open an unprecedented mechanism for extensive model testing and broad community feedback on model performance. The CCMC also evaluates model's prediction ability as an unbiased broker and supports operational model selections. The CCMC is organizing and leading a series of community-wide projects aiming to evaluate the current state of space weather modeling, to address challenges of model-data comparisons, and to define metrics for various user s needs and requirements. Many of CCMC models are continuously running in real-time. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in developing and maintaining real-time systems. CCMC staff expertise and trusted relations with model owners enable to keep up to date with rapid advances in model development. The information gleaned from the real-time calculations is tailored to specific mission needs. Model forecasts combined with data streams from NASA and other missions are integrated into an innovative configurable data analysis and dissemination system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov) that is accessible world-wide. The talk will review the latest progress and discuss opportunities for addressing operational space weather needs in innovative and collaborative ways.

Kuznetsova, M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.

Maddox, Marlo↗

NASA NTRS2011

CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (ETI) Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models: NmF2, hmF2, and Vertical Drift Using Ground-Based Observations

Objective quantification of model performance based on metrics helps us evaluate the current state of space physics modeling capability, address differences among various modeling approaches, and track model improvements over time. The Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR) Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (ETI) Challenge was initiated in 2009 to assess accuracy of various ionosphere/thermosphere models in reproducing ionosphere and thermosphere parameters. A total of nine events and five physical parameters were selected to compare between model outputs and observations. The nine events included two strong and one moderate geomagnetic storm events from GEM Challenge events and three moderate storms and three quiet periods from the first half of the International Polar Year (IPY) campaign, which lasted for 2 years, from March 2007 to March 2009. The five physical parameters selected were NmF2 and hmF2 from ISRs and LEO satellites such as CHAMP and COSMIC, vertical drifts at Jicamarca, and electron and neutral densities along the track of the CHAMP satellite. For this study, four different metrics and up to 10 models were used. In this paper, we focus on preliminary results of the study using ground-based measurements, which include NmF2 and hmF2 from Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISRs), and vertical drifts at Jicamarca. The results show that the model performance strongly depends on the type of metrics used, and thus no model is ranked top for all used metrics. The analysis further indicates that performance of the model also varies with latitude and geomagnetic activity level.

Shim, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Updates on CCMC Activities and GSFC Space Weather Services

In this presentation, we provide updates on CCMC modeling activities, CCMC metrics and validation studies, and other CCMC efforts. In addition, an overview of GSFC Space Weather Services (a sibling organization to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) and its products/capabilities will be given. We show how some of the research grade models, if running in an operational mode, can help address NASA's space weather needs by providing forecasting/now casting capabilities of significant space weather events throughout the solar system.

Zhengm Y.↗

NASA NTRS2011

2008 GEM Modeling Challenge: Metrics Study of the Dst Index in Physics-Based Magnetosphere and Ring Current Models and in Statistical and Analytic Specifications

In this paper the metrics-based results of the Dst part of the 2008-2009 GEM Metrics Challenge are reported. The Metrics Challenge asked modelers to submit results for 4 geomagnetic storm events and 5 different types of observations that can be modeled by statistical or climatological or physics-based (e.g. MHD) models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. We present the results of over 25 model settings that were run at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and at the institutions of various modelers for these events. To measure the performance of each of the models against the observations we use comparisons of one-hour averaged model data with the Dst index issued by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, Japan, and direct comparison of one-minute model data with the one-minute Dst index calculated by the United States Geologic Survey (USGS).

Rastaetter, L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections that Caused Particularly Large Geomagnetic Storms Using ENLIL Heliosphere Cone Model

In our previous paper we reported the results of modeling of 14 selected well -observed strong halo coronal mass ejection (CME) events using the WSA -ENLIL cone model combination. Cone model input parameters were obtained from white light coronagraph images of the CME events using the analytical method developed by Xie et al. This work verified that coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival time prediction. In contrast to Taktakishvili et al., where we started the analysis by looking for clear CME signatures in the data and then proceeded to model the interplanetary consequences at 1 AU, in the present paper we start by generating a list of observed geomagnetic storm events and then work our way back to remote solar observations and carry out the corresponding CME modeling. The approach used in this study is addressing space weather forecasting and operational needs. We analyzed 36 particularly strong geomagnetic storms, then tried to associate them with particular CMEs using SOHO/LASCO catalogue, and finally modeled these CMEs using WSA-ENLIL cone model. Recently, Pulkkinen et al. developed a novel method for automatic determination of cone model parameters. We employed both analytical and automatic methods to determine cone model input parameters. We examined the CME arrival times and magnitude of impact at 1 AU for both techniques. The results of the simulations are compared with the ACE satellite observations. This comparison demonstrated that WSA -ENLIL model combination with coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival times for this set of 'geoeffective" CME events as well.

Taktakishvili, A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Geospace Environment Modeling 2008-2009 Challenge: Ground Magnetic Field Perturbations

Acquiring quantitative metrics!based knowledge about the performance of various space physics modeling approaches is central for the space weather community. Quantification of the performance helps the users of the modeling products to better understand the capabilities of the models and to choose the approach that best suits their specific needs. Further, metrics!based analyses are important for addressing the differences between various modeling approaches and for measuring and guiding the progress in the field. In this paper, the metrics!based results of the ground magnetic field perturbation part of the Geospace Environment Modeling 2008 2009 Challenge are reported. Predictions made by 14 different models, including an ensemble model, are compared to geomagnetic observatory recordings from 12 different northern hemispheric locations. Five different metrics are used to quantify the model performances for four storm events. It is shown that the ranking of the models is strongly dependent on the type of metric used to evaluate the model performance. None of the models rank near or at the top systematically for all used metrics. Consequently, one cannot pick the absolute winner : the choice for the best model depends on the characteristics of the signal one is interested in. Model performances vary also from event to event. This is particularly clear for root!mean!square difference and utility metric!based analyses. Further, analyses indicate that for some of the models, increasing the global magnetohydrodynamic model spatial resolution and the inclusion of the ring current dynamics improve the models capability to generate more realistic ground magnetic field fluctuations.

Pulkkinen, A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Weather Services at Goddard Space Flight Center

The Space Weather Laboratory (SWL) forms a focal point at GSFC for the generation of space weather tools and information. This information is based on data from space mission and ground observatories, as well as on forefront model calculations conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). CCMC works with the research community to bring to bear the power of communitydeveloped space science models on space weather problems. Data from primarily from NASA missions but also from NOAA and other partner agencies are combined with model results into a fully configurable space weather information display by means of the iSWA system. This information and iSWA form the basis for and SWL-provided service to NASA's robotic mission fleet, which includes forecasts, regular updates, and warnings. This service benefits from a strong partnership with NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group, and with the US Air Force Weather Agency. In this presentation, we provide a summary of space weather capabilities and services and we present an outlook into the future.

Hesse, M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of space weather forecasting tools. Owing to the pace of development in the science community, new model capabilities emerge frequently. Consequently, space weather products and tools involve not only increased validity, but often entirely new capabilities. This presentation will review the present state of space weather tools as well as point out emerging future capabilities.

Hesse, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2010

Dynamics of Ring Current and Electric Fields in the Inner Magnetosphere During Disturbed Periods: CRCM-BATS-R-US Coupled Model

We present simulation results from a one-way coupled global MHD model (Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar-Wind Roe-Type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US) and kinetic ring current models (Comprehensive Ring Current Model, CRCM, and Fok Ring Current, FokRC). The BATS-R-US provides the CRCM/FokRC with magnetic field information and plasma density/temperature at the polar CRCM/FokRC boundary. The CRCM uses an electric potential from the BATS-R-US ionospheric solver at the polar CRCM boundary in order to calculate the electric field pattern consistent with the CRCM pressure distribution. The FokRC electric field potential is taken from BATS-R-US ionospheric solver everywhere in the modeled region, and the effect of Region II currents is neglected. We show that for an idealized case with southward-northward-southward Bz IMF turning, CRCM-BATS-R-US reproduces well known features of inner magnetosphere electrodynamics: strong/weak convection under the southward/northward Bz; electric field shielding/overshielding/penetration effects; an injection during the substorm development; Subauroral Ion Drift or Polarization Jet (SAID/PJ) signature in the dusk sector. Furthermore, we find for the idealized case that SAID/PJ forms during the substorm growth phase, and that substorm injection has its own structure of field-aligned currents which resembles a substorm current wedge. For an actual event (12 August 2000 storm), we calculate ENA emissions and compare with Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration/High Energy Neutral Atom data. The CRCM-BATS-R-US reproduces both the global morphology of ring current and the fine structure of ring current injection. The FokRC-BATS-R-US shows the effect of a realistic description of Region II currents in ring current-MHD coupled models.

Buzulukova, N.↗

NASA NTRS2008

NASA's THEMIS Mission: Multipoint Observations of Substorms, the Foreshock, and the Magnetopause

From launch on February 17 through the repositioning to final orbits that began in September 2007, the five-spacecraft of the THEMIS mission operated nominally in nearly identical 14.6 RE apogee near-equatorial orbits. On March 23, while aligned from east to west in the duskside magnetotail, the spacecraft observed two substorm sequences in fast survey mode. Timing the motion of these signatures served as an early proof of concept for the main phase of the mission: particle injection and dipolarization signatures propagated duskward from one probe to another, as did auroral intensifications seen by the dedicated array of ground-based observatories. During the summer of 2007, the spacecraft were on the dayside, where the three inner spacecraft (C, D, E) were separated by 100-500 km and the two outer probes (B, -4) by 5,000 - 10,000 km. Here the THEMIS probes repeatedly encountered the magnetopause and bow shock, dissecting flux transfer events (FTEs), determining the instantaneous width of the low-latitude boundary layer, and simultaneously observing hot flow anomalies upstream and downstream from the bow shock at the moment of their inception. From January to March 2008, the spacecraft were in the Earths magnetotail with apogees of 31.0, 19.5, 11.8 (2) and 10.0 RE corresponding to periods of 4, 2, and 1 days. Radial alignments once each four days offered an opportunity to pinpoint when and where substorms begin. This talk reviews THEMIS discoveries to date, with an emphasis on model-data comparisons of FTE characteristics

Sibeck, D. G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Heliophysical Modeling at the CCMC - Community Modeling Activities to Compliment the VHGO

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts an ever growing inventory of models to support the research activities of the Heliophysics community.In this poster we detail this model inventory. We describe the manner in which the CCMC provides access to these models to the community. This support includes model runs driven with archived data and 'realtime' runs which update as the latest data is ingested by the models. It includes runs for individual researchers and in support of observational planning and analysis for a number of flight missions. Our need to integrate the data streams into and out of numerous models and graphics packages has led to the development of a number of infra-structure component that are also highly relevant to the design of the VHGO. We discuss this issue and the natural and vital link that must develop between the VHGO and modeling centers such as the CCMC, if the usefulness of the VHGO is to be maximized.

MacNeice, P.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Community Coordinated Modeling Center Support of Operations: Real-Time Simulations and V & V.

In support of Operations Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) performing validation and verification of space weather models. To identify suitable metrics the CCMC focus on parameters most useful to operations that CCMC resident models can provide. The real time simulations carried out at CCMC are an essential tool to test model performance and stability by using input conditions that may occur in nature at any time. Since 2001, the magnetospheric MHD model BATSRUS has been run in real time using ACE real time data. CCMC staff developed an experimental real-time system that controls uploading of the real-time ACE data, monitors continuous model execution, initiates automatic recovery procedure in case of data gaps or hardware failures, synchronizes BATSRUS and FRC runs, and periodically runs IDL based visualization software.

Kuznetsova, M.↗