Engineering topics

Lao, L. L. (ORCID:0000000319372675)

Publications and source records attributed to Lao, L. L. (ORCID:0000000319372675).

6 records

DOE OSTI2024

Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Bayesian statistics offers a powerful technique for plasma physicists to infer knowledge from the heterogeneous data types encountered. To explain this power, a simple example, Gaussian Process Regression, and the application of Bayesian statistics to inverse problems are explained. The likelihood is the key distribution because it contains the data model, or theoretic predictions, of the desired quantities. By using prior knowledge, the distribution of the inferred quantities of interest based on the data given can be inferred. Because it is a distribution of inferred quantities given the data and not a single prediction, uncertainty quantification is a natural consequence of Bayesian statistics. The benefits of machine learning in developing surrogate models for solving inverse problems are discussed, as well as progress in quantitatively understanding the errors that such a model introduces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Flexible, integrated modeling of tokamak stability, transport, equilibrium, and pedestal physics

The STEP (Stability, Transport, Equilibrium, and Pedestal) integrated-modeling tool has been developed in OMFIT to predict stable, tokamak equilibria self-consistently with core-transport and pedestal calculations. STEP couples theory-based codes to integrate a variety of physics, including magnetohydrodynamic stability, transport, equilibrium, pedestal formation, and current-drive, heating, and fueling. The input/output of each code is interfaced with a centralized ITER-Integrated Modelling & Analysis Suite data structure, allowing codes to be run in any order and enabling open-loop, feedback, and optimization workflows. This paradigm simplifies the integration of new codes, making STEP highly extensible. STEP has been verified against a published benchmark of six different integrated models. Core-pedestal calculations with STEP have been successfully validated against individual DIII-D H-mode discharges and across more than 500 discharges of the H98,y2 database, with a mean error in confinement time from experiment less than 19%. STEP has also reproduced results in less conventional DIII-D scenarios, including negative-central-shear and negative-triangularity plasmas. Predictive STEP modeling has been used to assess performance in several tokamak reactors. Simulations of a high-field, large-aspect-ratio reactor show significantly lower fusion power than predicted by a zero-dimensional study, demonstrating the limitations of scaling-law extrapolations. STEP predictions have found promising scenarios for an EXhaust and Confinement Integration Tokamak Experiment, including a high-pressure, 80%-bootstrap-fraction plasma. ITER modeling with STEP has shown that pellet fueling enhances fusion gain in both the baseline and advanced-inductive scenarios. Finally, STEP predictions for the SPARC baseline scenario are in good agreement with published results from the physics basis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

MHD modeling of shattered pellet injection in JET

Abstract Nonlinear 3D MHD simulations of shattered-pellet injection (SPI) in JET show prototypical SPI-driven disruptions using the M3D-C1 and NIMROD extended-MHD codes. Initially, radiation-driven thermal quenches are accelerated by MHD activity as the pellet crosses rational surfaces, leading to a radiation spike, global stochasticization of the magnetic field, and a complete thermal quench. Eventually, current quenches, preceded by a current spike are seen as the Ohmic heating becomes equal to the radiative cooling. The results are qualitatively similar for both a single monolithic pellet, pencil-beam model, and a realistic shatter to represent the SPI plume. A scan in viscosity from 500 to 2000 m 2 s −1 for MHD simulations finds that reducing viscosity increases MHD activity and decreases thermal quench time slightly. A realistic cloud of fragments modeling shows that mixed-D–Ne pellet travels deeper into the plasma core before the thermal quench. At the slow pellet speeds, the pellet is found to be moving slowly enough inward that even the 5% neon in the mixed pellet is enough to effectively radiate the thermal energy available. Radiation toroidal peaking is predicted to be at levels consistent with experimental observations and reduced as the pellet travels deeper into the plasma. These simulations lay the ground work for more-sophisticated validative and predictive modeling of SPI in JET using both M3D-C1 and NIMROD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Self-consistent investigation of density fueling needs on ITER and CFETR utilizing the new Pellet Ablation Module

Abstract Self-consistent modeling using the stability, transport, equilibrium, and pedestal (STEP) workflow in the OMFIT integrated modeling framework (predicting pedestal with EPED, core profiles with TGYRO, current profile with ONETWO, and EFIT for equilibrium) suggests ITER and future devices such as China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) Zhuang et al (2019 Nucl. Fusion 59 112010) will benefit from high-density operation (Greenwald limit fraction f g w ≈ 0.7−1.3). Regimes with an operational density near the Greenwald limit will likely need peaked density profiles so that the pedestal density remains below the Greenwald limit. Peaked density profiles can be achieved with the help of pellet injection. A flexible Pellet Ablation Module (PAM), which predicts the density source based on a comprehensive analytical pellet ablation model, has been developed for predicting pellet fueling for transport studies, and has been incorporated into the STEP workflow for predictive modeling. This workflow is applied to DIII-D and finds good agreement with experiments. On ITER the effect of pellet fueling is examined in an advanced inductive scenario, where a fusion gain of up to Q = 9 is predicted with strong central pellet fueling. On CFETR, with a mid-radius density source, an average of 1.5 × 10 22 electrons s −1 are required to achieve the density and temperature profiles necessary for the 1000 MW advanced scenario with a tritium burn-up fraction of ∼ 3 % .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of runaway electron production with CQL3D coupled to NIMROD

Abstract A coupling between two distinctly different codes—one magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and another kinetic—is achieved and applied for simulation of runaway electron (RE) production. The 3D initial value MHD code NIMROD simulates a DIII-D pure neon shattered pellet injection plasma quench including the propagation and ablation of the fragments, ionization and recombination of the impurities, and the radiated and transported energies. The field data from NIMROD is then used by the bounce-averaged Fokker–Planck Collisional QuasiLinear 3D (CQL3D) kinetic code to simulate the production of REs and their radial transport. The coupling procedure involves mapping of data between different grids and adjustment of the NIMROD toroidal electric field when REs appear. It is shown that without the radial transport, a large RE current is generated, up to 30% of the pre-pellet ohmic current. However, when the radial transport is included in CQL3D, the RE current is reduced to undetectable level, consistent with experiment. Various forms of the radial diffusion are surveyed to determine conditions when the fast electrons would not have time to be accelerated to relativistic energies before they are lost to chamber wall.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Equilibrium reconstruction of DIII-D plasmas using predictive modeling of the pressure profile

New workflows have been developed for predictive modeling of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium in tokamak plasmas. The goal of this work is to predict the MHD equilibrium in tokamak discharges without having measurements of the kinetic profiles. The workflows include a cold start tool, which constructs all the profiles and power flows needed by transport codes; a Grad–Shafranov equilibrium solver; and various codes for the sources and sinks. For validation purposes, a database of DIII-D tokamak discharges has been constructed that is comprised of scans in the plasma current, toroidal magnetic field, and triangularity. Initial efforts focused on developing a workflow utilizing an empirically derived pressure model tuned to DIII-D discharges with monotonic safety factor profiles. This workflow shows good agreement with experimental kinetic equilibrium calculations, but is limited in that it is a single fluid (equal ion and electron temperatures) model and lacks H-mode pedestal predictions. The best agreement with the H-mode database is obtained using a theory-based workflow utilizing pressure profile predictions from a coupled TGLF turbulent transport and EPED pedestal models together with external magnetics and Motional Stark Effect (MSE) data to construct the equilibrium. Here, we obtain an average root mean square error of 5.1% in the safety factor profile when comparing the predicted and experimental kinetic equilibrium. We also find good agreement with the plasma stored energy, internal inductance, and pressure profiles. Including MSE data in the theory-based workflow results in noticeably improved agreement with the q-profiles in high triangularity discharges in comparison with the results obtained with magnetic data only. The predictive equilibrium workflow is expected to have wide applications in experimental planning, between-shot analysis, and reactor studies.

Kinsey, J. E. (ORCID:0000000193347473)↗