Search NASA⌕ Search

Engineering topics

Lara, Mark J.

Publications and source records attributed to Lara, Mark J..

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The Arctic

Arctic observations in 2023 provided clear evidence of rapid and pronounced climate and environmental change, shaped by past and ongoing human activities that release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and push the broader Earth system into uncharted territory. This chapter provides a snapshot of 2023 and summarizes decades-long trends observed across the Arctic, including warming surface air and sea-surface temperatures, decreasing snow cover, diminishing sea ice, thawing permafrost, and continued mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic glaciers. These changes are driving a transition to a wetter, greener, and less frozen Arctic, with serious implications for Arctic peoples and ecosystems, as well as for low- and midlatitudes

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Observations indicate shrubs are expanding across the Arctic tundra, mainly on hillslopes and primarily in response to climate warming. However, the impact topography exerts on hydrology, nutrient dynamics, and plant growth can make untangling the mechanisms behind shrub expansion difficult. We examined the role topography plays in determining shrub expansion by applying a coupled transect version of a mechanistic ecosystem model (ecosys) in a tundra hillslope site in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Modeled biomass of the dominant plant functional types agreed well with field measurements (R 2 = 0.89) and accurately represented shrub expansion over the past 30 years inferred from satellite observations. In the well-drained crest position, canopy water potential and plant nitrogen (N) uptake was modeled to be low from plant and microbial water stress. Intermediate soil water content in the mid-slope position enhanced mineralization and plant N uptake, increasing shrub biomass. The deciduous shrub growth in the mid-slope position was further enhanced by symbiotic N 2 fixation primed by increased root carbon allocation. The gentle slope in the poorly drained lower-slope position resulted in saturated soil conditions that reduced soil O 2 concentrations, leading to lower root O 2 uptake and lower nutrient uptake and plant biomass. Additionally, a simulation that removed topographical interconnectivity between grid cells resulted in (1) a 28% underestimate of mean shrub biomass and (2) over or underestimated shrub productivity at the various hillslope positions. Our results indicate that land models need to account for hillslope-scale coupled surface and subsurface hydrology to accurately predict current plant distributions and future trajectories in Arctic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Large loss of CO 2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) 4 . However, the amount of CO 2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates. In this paper, we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO 2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO 2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Finally, our results provide a baseline for winter CO 2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO 2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions

Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000km²) using the Landsat archive (1999–2014), in combination with novel 30m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

PeRL: a circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake database

Ponds and lakes are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. They play an important role in Arctic wetland ecosystems by regulating carbon, water, and energy fluxes and providing freshwater habitats. However, ponds, i.e., waterbodies with surface areas smaller than 1.0 × 10 4 m 2 , have not been inventoried on global and regional scales. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database presents the results of a circum-Arctic effort to map ponds and lakes from modern (2002–2013) high-resolution aerial and satellite imagery with a resolution of 5 m or better. The database also includes historical imagery from 1948 to 1965 with a resolution of 6 m or better. PeRL includes 69 maps covering a wide range of environmental conditions from tundra to boreal regions and from continuous to discontinuous permafrost zones. Waterbody maps are linked to regional permafrost landscape maps which provide information on permafrost extent, ground ice volume, geology, and lithology. This paper describes waterbody classification and accuracy, and presents statistics of waterbody distribution for each site. Maps of permafrost landscapes in Alaska, Canada, and Russia are used to extrapolate waterbody statistics from the site level to regional landscape units. PeRL presents pond and lake estimates for a total area of 1.4 × 10 6 km 2 across the Arctic, about 17 % of the Arctic lowland ( < 300 m a.s.l.) land surface area. PeRL waterbodies with sizes of 1.0 ×10 6 m 2 down to 1.0 ×10 2 m 2 contributed up to 21 % to the total water fraction. Waterbody density ranged from 1.0 ×10 to 9.4 × 10 1 km –2 . Ponds are the dominant waterbody type by number in all landscapes representing 45–99 % of the total waterbody number. In conclusion, the implementation of PeRL size distributions in land surface models will greatly improve the investigation and projection of surface inundation and carbon fluxes in permafrost lowlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Rising plant-mediated methane emissions from arctic wetlands

Plant-mediated CH 4 flux is an important pathway for land–atmosphere CH 4 emissions, but the magnitude, timing, and environmental controls, spanning scales of space and time, remain poorly understood in arctic tundra wetlands, particularly under the long-term effects of climate change. CH 4 fluxes were measured in situ during peak growing season for the dominant aquatic emergent plants in the Alaskan arctic coastal plain, Carex aquatilis and Arctophila fulva, to assess the magnitude and species-specific controls on CH 4 flux. Plant biomass was a strong predictor of A. fulva CH 4 flux while water depth and thaw depth were copredictors for C. aquatilis CH 4 flux. Here, we used plant and environmental data from 1971 to 1972 from the historic International Biological Program (IBP) research site near Barrow, Alaska, which we resampled in 2010–2013, to quantify changes in plant biomass and thaw depth, and used these to estimate species-specific decadal-scale changes in CH 4 fluxes. A ~60% increase in CH 4 flux was estimated from the observed plant biomass and thaw depth increases in tundra ponds over the past 40 years. In spite of our covering only ~5% of the landscape, we estimate that aquatic C. aquatilis and A. fulva account for two-thirds of the total regional CH 4 flux of the Barrow Peninsula. The regionally observed increases in plant biomass and active layer thickening over the past 40 years not only have major implications for energy and water balance, but also have significantly altered land–atmosphere CH 4 emissions for this region, potentially acting as a positive feedback to climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Peak season carbon exchange shifts from a sink to a source following 50+ years of herbivore exclusion in an Arctic tundra ecosystem

To date, the majority of our knowledge regarding the impacts of herbivory on arctic ecosystem function has been restricted to short-term (<5 years) exclusion or manipulation experiments. Here, our understanding of long-term responses of sustained herbivory and/or herbivore exclusion on arctic tundra ecosystem function is severely limited.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗