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Lary, D. J.

Publications and source records attributed to Lary, D. J..

Variations in Stratospheric Inorganic Chlorine Between 1991 and 2006

So how quickly will the ozone hole recover? This depends on how quickly the chlorine content (Cl2) of the atmosphere will decline. The ozone hole forms over the Antarctic each southern spring (September and October). The extremely small ozone amounts in the ozone hole are there because of chemical reactions of ozone with chlorine. This chlorine originates largely from industrially produced chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) compounds. An international agreement, the Montreal Protocol, is drastically reducing the amount of chlorine-containing compounds that we are releasing into the atmosphere. To be able to attribute changes in stratospheric ozone to changes in chlorine we need to know the distribution of atmospheric chlorine. However, due to a lack of continuous observations of all the key chlorine gases, producing a continuous time series of stratospheric chlorine has not been achieved to date. We have for the first time devised a technique to make a 17-year time series for stratospheric chlorine that uses the long time series of HCl observations made from several space borne instruments and a neural network. The neural networks allow us to both inter-calibrate the various HCl instruments and to infer the total amount of atmospheric chlorine from HCl. These new estimates of Cl, provide a much needed critical test for current global models that currently predict significant differences in both Cl(sub y) and ozone recovery. These models exhibit differences in their projection of the recovery time and our chlorine content time series will help separate the good from the bad in these projections.

Lary, D. J.↗

Chemical Data Assimilation: A Case Study of Solar Occultation Data From the Atlas 1 Mission of the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Experiment

A key advantage of using data assimilation is the propagation of information from data-rich regions to data-poor regions, which is particularly relevant to the use of solar occultation data such as from ATMOS. For the first time an in depth uncertainty analyses is included in a photochemical model-data intercomparison including observation, representativeness, and theoretical uncertainty. Chemical data assimilation of solar occultation measurements can be used to reconstruct full diurnal cycles and to evaluate their chemical self-consistency. This paper considers as an example the measurements made by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Experiment (ATMOS) instrument Atlas-1 during March 1992 for a vertical profile flow tracking coordinates at an equivalent PV latitude of 38 S. ATMOS was chosen because it simultaneously observes several species. This equivalent PV latitude was chosen as it was where ATMOS n observed the atmosphere's composition over the largest range of altitudes. A single vertical profile was used so that the detailed diurnal information that assimilation utilizes could be highlighted. There is generally good self-consistency between the ATMOS Atlas-1 observations and photochemical theory.

Lary, D. J.↗

Using Neural Networks to Describe Tracer Correlations

Neural networks are ideally suited to describe the spatial and temporal dependence of tracer-tracer correlations. The neural network performs well even in regions where the correlations are less compact and normally a family of correlation curves would be required. For example, the CH4-N2O correlation can be well described using a neural network trained with the latitude, pressure, time of year, and CH4 volume mixing ratio (v.m.r.). In this study a neural network using Quickprop learning and one hidden layer with eight nodes was able to reproduce the CH4-N2O correlation with a correlation co- efficient of 0.9995. Such an accurate representation of tracer-tracer correlations allows more use to be made of long-term datasets to constrain chemical models. Such as the dataset from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) which has continuously observed CH4, (but not N2O) from 1991 till the present. The neural network Fortran code used is available for download.

Lary, D. J.↗

Kalman Filter Chemical Data Assimilation: A Case Study in January 1992

This paper describes a Kalman filter chemical data assimilation system and its use for analysing a vertical atmospheric profile during January 1992. The vertical profile was at an equivalent PV latitude (phi(sub e)) of 55 deg S and consisted of 21 potential temperature (theta) levels spaced equally in log(theta) between 400 K and 2000 K. This equivalent latitude was chosen as it was well observed during January 1992 by instruments on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS).

Lary, D. J.↗

Observations of Middle Atmosphere CO from the UARS ISAMS during the Early Northern Winter 1991/92

Structure and kinematics of carbon monoxide in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (10-0.03 hPa) are studied for the early northern winter 1991/92 using the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS) measurements. The study is aided by data from a 6-week parameterized-chemistry run of the Goddard Space Flight Center 3D Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM), initialized on 8 December 1991. Generally, CO mixing ratios increase with height due to the increasing source contribution from CO, photolysis. In the tropical upper stratosphere. however, a local maximum in CO mixing ratio occurs. A simple photochemical model is used to show that this feature results largely from methane oxidation. In the extratropics the photochemical lifetime of CO is long, and therefore its evolution is dictated by large-scale motion of air. evidenced by strong correlation with Ertel potential vorticity. This makes CO one of the few useful observable tracers at the stratopause level and above. Thus CO maps are used to study the synoptic evolution of the polar vortex in early January 1992. Modified Lagrangian mean mixing diagnostics are applied to ISAMS and CTM data to examine the strength of the mixing barrier at the polar vortex edge. It is demonstrated that planetary wave activity weakens the barrier. promoting vortex erosion. The vortex erosion first appears in the lower mesosphere and subsequently descends through the upper stratosphere. and is attributed to effects of planetary wave dissipation. Agreement between ISAMS and CTM is good in the horizontal distribution of CO throughout the examined period, but vertical CO gradients in the CTM weaken with time relative to the ISAMS observations.

Allen, D. R.↗

The BLISS measurements of NO2 - Some new insights

The present study compares the diurnal variation of NO2 measured near 30 km by the BLISS in situ laser spectrometer with calculations from a photochemical model that includes a detailed description of multiple scattering. Even better agreement is found between the data and the model, both at sunset and during the day. The conclusions of an earlier study that the high-resolution in situ measurements of NO2 facilitated validation of the understanding of the diurnal chemistry of NO2 are confirmed.

Pyle, J. A.↗