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Lauri K. Newman

Publications and source records attributed to Lauri K. Newman.

An Assessment of the Efficacy of Launch Collision Avoidance Analysis in Providing Risk Reduction for NASA

The objective of this document is to assess the value of collision on launch assessment (COLA, often referred to as “launch COLA”) practices and provide recommendations regarding its implementation for NASA robotic missions. The scope of this effort is limited to launch COLA screens against catalog objects that are either spacecraft or debris. No modifications to manned safety launch COLA practices are considered in this effort. An assessment of the value of launch COLA can be broken down into two fundamental questions: 1) Does collision during launch represent a significant risk to either the payload being launched or the space environment? 2) Can launch collision mitigation be performed in a manner that provides meaningful risk reduction at an acceptable level of operational impact? While it has been possible to piece together partial answers to these questions for some time, the first attempt to comprehensively address them is documented in reference (a), Launch COLA Operations: an Examination of Data Products, Procedures, and Thresholds, Revision A. This report is the product of an extensive study that addressed fundamental technical questions surrounding launch collision avoidance analysis and practice. The results provided in reference (a) will be cited throughout this document as these two questions are addressed. The premise of this assessment is that in order to conclude that launch COLA is a value-added activity, the answer to both of these questions must be affirmative. A “no” answer to either of these questions points toward the conclusion that launch COLA provides little or no risk mitigation benefit. The remainder of this assessment will focus on addressing these two questions.

launch COLA

Safe Space Conduct: NASA Best Practices for SmallSats

The Conjunction Assessment Best Practices Handbook that NASA published in late 2020 covers many topics that are important to the smallsat community, such as how to produce and share accurate ephemerides for CA screening, why trackability is critical to ensuring the prevention of orbital debris, and the pitfalls of autonomous maneuvering for safety of your neighbors. This presentation describes each of these topics to give visibility of these critical items to the smallsat community.

Collision Avoidance

Conjunction Assessment at NASA

The number of objects in orbit is growing exponentially The space environment today is very different from a decade ago and continues to evolve very rapidly - Historically, space operations were domain of large governmental entities. - Commercial space operators are becoming commonplace and have different business models than government actors - CubeSats are cost effective and accessible for everyone, even down to elementary schools - Challenge in educating new space actors on best practices and availability of data and tools Technology enabling this access has rapidly evolved, while no regulatory framework has been established to ensure that space can be used safely by all.

Conjunction Assessment

NASA Best Practices Overview

While prevention of launch and on-orbit collisions has been an institutional concern of NASA for several decades (beginning with the Shuttle program), historically the paucity of space actors and deployed payloads made the conduct of such protection activities relatively straightforward. With the substantial increases in launched payloads over the last several years, collision avoidance operations have become substantially more complicated. At the same time, many operators are uncertain regarding what collision avoidance activities are appropriate to their missions. The lack of a space traffic management authority to articulate standards and guidelines for such conduct has only increased the confusion. In response to this situation, NASA has published a Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Handbook, which articulates and explains the launch and on-orbit collision avoidance best practices that the Agency has developed and is requiring of present and future NASA missions. Because the CA2 Handbook is a living document regularly updated to reflect best practices changes as the industry develops, feedback from both NASA missions and other users is continuously collected in order to issue CA2 Handbook updates. This talk will summarize and explain the collision avoidance best practices from the CA2 Handbook, along with the key issues that drove the selection of those practices.

Conjunction Assessment

Deep-Space Conjunction Assessment: Recent Developments and Future Evolution

The Multi-mission Automated Deep-space Conjunction Assessment Process (MADCAP) is a NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) capability used to perform conjunction assessment in shared deep-space environments. MADCAP began performing conjunction assessment at Mars and the Moon in 2011, with the Sun/Earth libration points added to its functionality in 2020. There has been an increasing number of missions operating in these environments in recent years, leading to an elevated frequency of close conjunction events, especially in the Lunar orbital environment. MADCAP provides this service not only to NASA missions, but to any operator who is willing to share ephemerides. Since there is no space surveillance network for deep space environments, ephemeris sharing is the only way in which spacecraft operators can ensure the safety of their spacecraft from collision in these orbit regimes. NASA published a set of conjunction assessment best practices in 2020 that cover the MADCAP process. This paper details recent MADCAP operational experience in the deep space environments, including statistics and process improvements. Updates to the MADCAP software and automation framework implemented to handle the recent growth in the number of deep space missions are also discussed. Future enhancements planned in anticipation of increasingly crowded deep-space environments, such as non-standard runs based on exploratory scenarios, are also discussed.

conjunction assessment

Automating Maneuvers: Considerations for Collision Avoidance

As more space operators implement large constellations of spacecraft, automating orbit maintenance maneuvers becomes a key feature of their operations concept to ensure that the workload is manageable. However, the practice of performing a maneuver without sharing the plan with other nearby spacecraft causes a risk that two spacecraft will collide, not only destroying the spacecraft involved, but creating debris that will affect all other spacecraft using that orbit regime. In order to share the maneuver plan, a predicted ephemeris file containing the maneuver must be sent to a central authority to screen against predicted trajectories of all other on-orbit objects to determine where and when close approaches will occur that may need to be mitigated. Currently the screening authority used by US operators is the 19th Space Defense Squadron; screenings are performed once every 8 hours, meaning that spacecraft using automated maneuvering need to allow 16 hours to share their maneuver plan via the screening process in advance of maneuver execution in case one screening is missed and the next needs to be used. In an effort to speed up the screening process to benefit spacecraft using automated maneuvering, a prototype system for performing near-real-time screenings has been developed in support of the NASA Starling mission, a constellation of four cubesats that fly at the same altitude as the SpaceX Starlink constellation. Both of these constellations perform automated maneuvering, so without screening the planned maneuvers before execution, the two constellations would risk a collision. This paper describes the traditional conjunction assessment (CA) process, the prototype real-time CA screening capability, plans for the experiment to test the prototype, and next steps.

conjunction assessment

Automating Maneuvers: Considerations for Collision Avoidance

As more space operators implement large constellations of spacecraft, automating orbit maintenance maneuvers becomes a key feature of their operations concept to ensure that the workload is manageable. However, the practice of performing a maneuver without sharing the plan with other nearby spacecraft causes a risk that two spacecraft will collide, not only destroying the spacecraft involved, but creating debris that will affect all other spacecraft using that orbit regime. In order to share the maneuver plan, a predicted ephemeris file containing the maneuver must be sent to a central authority to screen against predicted trajectories of all other on-orbit objects to determine where and when close approaches will occur that may need to be mitigated. Currently the screening authority used by US operators is the 19th Space Defense Squadron; screenings are performed once every 8 hours, meaning that spacecraft using automated maneuvering need to allow 16 hours to share their maneuver plan via the screening process in advance of maneuver execution in case one screening is missed and the next needs to be used. In an effort to speed up the screening process to benefit spacecraft using automated maneuvering, a prototype system for performing near-real-time screenings has been developed in support of the NASA Starling mission, a constellation of four cubesats that fly at the same altitude as the SpaceX Starlink constellation. Both of these constellations perform automated maneuvering, so without screening the planned maneuvers before execution, the two constellations would risk a collision. This paper describes the traditional conjunction assessment (CA) process, the prototype real-time CA screening capability, plans for the experiment to test the prototype, and next steps.

conjunction assessment