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Lawrence Coy

Publications and source records attributed to Lawrence Coy.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Faster Tropical Upper Stratospheric Upwelling Drives Changes in Ozone Chemistry

Tropospheric trends in long-lived source gases N2O and the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) cause trends in O3 through changes in their reactive product gases. Transport affects the product gases because it controls the distribution of the long-lived source gases. We find that large changes in tropical upwelling 10-5 hPa since 2012 have strengthened the northern branch of the upper stratospheric (UpS) transport circulation, dramatically altering the abundances of N2O and its odd nitrogen product gases, NOx and HNO3. Increased upwelling is connected to stronger and more frequent Quasi-Biennial Oscillation easterly winds at 10 hPa and above. We use simulations with and without time varying MERRA2 meteorology to quantify the impact of dynamical changes on O3 loss via the NOx and ClOx cycles. We find that dynamical impacts on these cycles explain the mid-stratospheric tropical O3 increase and Arctic UpS O3 decrease since 2005.

Middle atmosphere chemistry and composition↗
NASA NTRS2022

2021 Antarctic Ozone Hole [in “State of the Climate in 2021"]

The 2021 Antarctic ozone hole was the 13th largest in 42 years of satellite observations since 1979, with an area of 23.34 × 106 km 2 (the average area for 7 September–13 October) and a minimum daily total ozone column of 92 DU. The 2021 polar stratospheric vortex was stable with consistently cold temperatures that created favorable conditions for ozone depletion. The meteorological conditions and seasonal development of the ozone hole in 2021 were similar to those in 2020. Weaker-than-usual amplitudes of planetary scale Rossby waves in the September–October period helped maintain a strong vortex and led to below-average Antarctic ozone columns in late austral spring and early summer.

Natalya A Kramarova↗
NASA NTRS2021

Intercomparison of Middle Atmospheric Meteorological Analyses for the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010

Detailed meteorological analyses based on observations extending through the middle atmosphere (~15 to 100 km altitude) can provide key information to whole atmosphere modelling systems regarding the physical mechanisms linking day-to-day changes in ionospheric electron density to meteorological variability near the Earth’s surface. However, the extent to which independent middle atmosphere analyses differ in their representation of wave-induced coupling to the ionosphere is unclear. To begin to address this issue, we present the first intercomparison among four such analyses, JAGUAR-DAS, MERRA-2, NAVGEM-HA, and WACCMX+DART, focusing on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) 2009-2010 winter, which includes a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). This intercomparison examines the altitude, latitude, and time dependences of zonal mean zonal winds and temperatures among these four analyses over the 1 December 2009 – 31 March 2010 period, as well as latitude and altitude dependences of monthly mean amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal migrating solar tides, the eastward propagating diurnal zonal wave number 3 nonmigrating tide, and traveling planetary waves associated with the quasi-5-day and quasi-2-day Rossby modes. Our results show generally good agreement among the four analyses up to the stratopause (~50 km altitude). Large discrepancies begin to emerge in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere owing to (1) differences in the types of satellite data assimilated by each system and (2) differences in the details of the global atmospheric models used by each analysis system. The results of this intercomparison provide initial estimates of uncertainty in analyses commonly used to constrain middle atmospheric meteorological variability in whole atmosphere model simulations.

John P Mccormack↗
NASA NTRS2021

Prospect of Increased Disruption to the QBO in a Changing Climate

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO’s quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it has progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently it is possible that in the future the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.

James A Anstey↗
NASA NTRS2021

The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Weakening and Its Impacts

This study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August to mid- September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first ever observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50% in the mid-stratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-one activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skillfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July.

Antarctic Oscillation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the GEOS-Chem UCX Stratosphere in the GEOS Composition Forecast System

The NASA GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) system provides 3-dimensional atmospheric composition analyses and forecasts to the public in near-real time at the high spatial resolution of 25 km. While the main focus of this new product is on tropospheric air quality information, the GEOS-Chem chemistry model (v12) used in this system includes the UCX stratospheric chemistry mechanism. Here, we describe the GEOS-CF system and provide comparisons against remote-sensed observations for stratospheric composition, including measurements of HCl, ClO, NO2, and O3. The GEOS-CF nudges the stratospheric ozone towards the GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS FP) assimilated ozone product; as a result the stratospheric ozone analysis in theGEOS-CF agrees well with observations. Additionally, with the inclusion of the GEOS-Chem UCX stratospheric chemistry mechanism in GEOS-CF, 5-day forecasts, especially during the abnormal 2020 NH polar spring, capture the chemical and dynamical changes missed by the GEOS FP system, which tends towards climatology. The GEOS-CF is a new tool for the research community providing near-real time 3-dimensional gridded information on atmospheric composition throughout the troposphere and stratosphere.

Stratosphere↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Antarctic Stratospheric Warming and its Impacts in 2019

We explore the mechanism, predictability and hemispheric-wide surface impacts of a rare stratospheric warming that occurred above Antarctica during austral spring (September to November) 2019, using the Japanese 55-year reanalysis set for the period 1979-2019. From late August to mid-September, the stratospheric polar vortex suddenly weakened, and the stratospheric temperatures dramatically rose over the Antarctic polar cap. The deceleration of the vortex observed at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first ever observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean warming in the mid-stratosphere (~30hPa) over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50%. The key mechanism for this event was a poleward shift of the polar night jet near the stratopause during mid-winter and subsequent record strong planetary wavenumber-one activity propagating from the troposphere in August, which acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex. The easterly wind anomalies and positive temperature anomalies moved downward to the surface during October to December, causing the index polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to become record-negative for the season. The record negative SAM played a key role in inducing significant local climate extremes over eastern Australia, southern New Zealand, eastern South America and western Patagonia. Especially, the strong negative SAM was the key driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia in late spring 2019 that, in turn, were conducive for the severe wildfires that occurred during that time. State-of-the-art dynamical sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems skilfully predicted the upward propagating wavenumber-one activity in August, the significant vortex weakening of austral spring 2019, and subsequent development of negative SAM from late July.

Eun-Pa Lim↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Generation of Mixing Across the Stratospheric Polarvortex Edge By Breaking Gravity Waves

Modern high resolution global atmospheric analyses are capable of resolving larger gravity waves, including their generation, propagation, and breaking. Orographically generated gravity waves that break in the middle stratosphere often appear as disturbances in maps of potential vorticity, a key stratospheric dynamical quantity. Using analyses from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we show how gravity waves not only disturb the local flow above them but can generate flow instabilities leading to eddies that propagate around the stratospheric polar vortex, creating significant mixing across the vortex edge and into the polar region. These disturbances and mixing events are especially noticeable during NH winter months with low planetary scale wave activity such as in January 2022. During January 2022, the initially circular flow around the polar vortex was disrupted by breaking gravity waves, leading to unstable flow that created a chain of eddies around the vortex edge. The mixing associated with this process led to increased ozone in the upper stratosphere polar region.

Polar Vortex↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stratospheric Circulation Changes Associated with the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption

The 15 January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano injected an unprecedented amount of water directly into the stratosphere. This study attempts to quantify this impact on the temperature, as well as the subsequent changes to the stratospheric circulation, during the months following the eruption based on reanalysis fields. The extreme nature of the temperature, wind, and circulation changes are tracked through comparisons of the months of 2022 with the past 42 years. Examination of the data assimilation process shows that at 20 hPa the data is forcing temperature cooling at record rates resulting in record cold temperatures. Details of the stratospheric perturbations in latitude and pressure are presented for June 2022 where record strong cooling is found at 20 hPa from 60oS to 30oS. In response to the cooling the atmosphere adjusts by creating record strong winds above the temperature anomaly and large changes to the downward and poleward mean meridional circulation.

Lawrence Coy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Forecasting Tonga water vapor effects on the stratosphere during April through August 2022

The ability of an ensemble based Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecast system to capture the circulation anomalies created by the Tonga water vapor injection is investigated using the NASA GEOS-S2S (version 2) system. A 40-member ensemble was initialized in April 2022 based on MERRA-2 meteorology with assimilated Tonga water vapor taken from the M2-SCREAM MLS assimilation. The 40-member forecasts were run through June 2022 with 10 selected members continuing through August 2022. Duplicate ensembles were initialized without the Tonga water vapor as a control experiment. Results show that the forecasted patterns of cooling at 20 hPa, water vapor advection at 20 hPa, and zonal mean winds at 1 hPa agree well the assimilation products out to 4 months, indicating the usefulness of S2S system diagnostics in understanding the impact of the large water perturbation.

Lawrence Coy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Disruption of the 2022-2023 stratospheric circulation by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano

In January 2022 the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano erupted, injecting an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the stratosphere that increased the total stratospheric water burden by ~10%. As the initial plume of water vapor spread throughout the stratosphere, radiative heating and cooling anomalies affected the stratospheric circulation altering the climatological mean residual circulation. Here we compare the 1980-2021 MERRA-2 (Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) mean residual circulation climatology to the years 2022-2023 to identify stratospheric circulation changes associated with the anomalous water vapor. The HTHH water vapor is explicitly tracked using the M2-SCREAM (MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder) water vapor analysis. Anomalies in temperature, jet location, polar vortex strength and ozone advection in response to the HTHH water vapor anomaly are also documented. These results reveal details of the evolution of the HTHH induced stratospheric circulation anomalies with special emphasis on how these circulation anomalies affected the 2023 ozone hole.

Lawrence Coy↗