Analyses of Virtual Ship‐Tracks Systematically Underestimate Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions Signals
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Tianle Yuan↗
Engineering topics
Lazaros Oreopoulos
Publications and source records attributed to Lazaros Oreopoulos.
Describing Seasonal Mixtures of Cloud Regimes Via “Regimes of Regimes”
We propose a new type of cloud classification, relevant to monthly or longer time scales, but which inherently still encompasses cloud subgrid variability information at ~100 km scales. Our proposed classification partitions frequencies of occurrence over these scales of previously defined cloud regimes (CRs). We call the resulting distinct cloud entities regimes of regimes (RORs). While the CRs have been previously shown to successfully classify daily mesoscale subgrid variability via distributions of cloud fraction within distinct combinations of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness, the RORs essentially represent the prevalent seasonal mixtures of these CRs. RORs thus embody the seasonal cloudiness of a mesoscale region. We show that each ROR can still be associated with more traditional cloud classifications via composites of coincident active (lidar and cloud radar) cloud views. In a first application that gauges the potential utility of RORs, we pair them with CERES EBAF radiative fluxes to gain insight into recent trends of the cloud radiative effect. The ROR corresponding to an environment of shallow convection stands out in this analysis largely because of its declining population. Our study demonstrates the potential of RORs to categorize globally mesoscale cloudiness at monthly/seasonal scales and to serve as proxies of different atmospheric states at these scales.
Nayeong Cho↗
Regimes of Cloud Vertical Structure From Active Observations
We introduce a new type of cloud class, which we call “active cloud regime” (ACR), owing to its provenance from active (lidar and cloud radar) spaceborne cloud observations. ACRs intend to provide a climatological description based on cloud vertical structure (CVS) of the most prevalent monthly CVS mixtures encountered at large spatial scales of ~400 km. ACRs are thus a way to create a gridded dataset of a vertically-resolved cloud mask that can facilitate joint analysis with other gridded datasets. The detailed 2D cloud mask comes from the 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR CloudSat dataset fusing CALIPSO (lidar) and CloudSat (cloud radar) cloud detections. We show that the global classification of cloudiness under the ACR framework provides valuable insights on how the world’s dominant cloud systems regulate the two major components of atmospheric energetics, precipitation and radiative cooling. NASA’s GEOS model allows us to demonstrate the feasibility of applying the ACR concept in Earth System Models that have the capability to produce subgrid cloudiness obeying pre-specified vertical overlap rules. Comparison of observed and simulated ACRs provides thus another means to assess the realism of modeled clouds.
cloud vertical structure↗
Abrupt Reduction in Shipping Emission as an Inadvertent Geoengineering Termination Shock Produces Substantial Radiative Warming
Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of +0.2±0.11Wm-2 averaged over the global ocean.The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity.The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020s anomalously warm. The forcing represents 80% to the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.
Tianle Yuan↗
Substantial Cooling Effect From Aerosol-Induced Increase in Tropical Marine Cloud Cover
With global warming currently standing at approximately +1.2 °C since preindustrial times, climate change is a pressing global issue. Marine cloud brightening is one proposed method to tackle warming through injecting aerosols into marine clouds to enhance their reflectivity and thereby planetary albedo. However, because it is unclear how aerosols influence clouds, especially cloud cover, both climate projections and the effectiveness of marine cloud brightening remain uncertain. Here, we use satellite observations of volcanic eruptions in Hawaii to quantify the aerosol fingerprint on tropical marine clouds. We observe a large enhancement in reflected sunlight, mainly due to an aerosol-induced increase in cloud cover. This observed strong negative aerosol forcing suggests that the current level of global warming is driven by a weaker net radiative forcing than previously thought, arising from the competing effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols. This implies a greater sensitivity of Earth’s climate to radiative forcing and therefore a larger warming response to both rising greenhouse gas concentrations and reductions in atmospheric aerosols due to air quality measures. However, our findings also indicate that mitigation of global warming via marine cloud brightening is plausible and is most effective in humid and stable conditions in the tropics where solar radiation is strong.
Atmospheric science↗
Observational Evidence of Strong Forcing from Aerosol Effect on Low Cloud Coverage
Aerosols cool Earth’s climate indirectly by increasing low cloud brightness and their coverage (Cf), constituting the aerosol indirect forcing (AIF). The forcing partially offsets the greenhouse warming and positively correlates with the climate sensitivity. However, it remains highly uncertain. Here, we show direct observational evidence for strong forcing from Cf adjustment to increased aerosols and weak forcing from cloud liquid water path adjustment. We estimate that the Cf adjustment drives between 52% and 300% of additional forcing to the Twomey effect over the ocean and a total AIF of −1.1 ± 0.8 W m -2 . The Cf adjustment follows a power law as a function of background cloud droplet number concentration, N d . It thus depends on time and location and is stronger when N d is low. Cf only increases substantially when background clouds start to drizzle, suggesting a role for aerosol-precipitation interactions. Our findings highlight the Cf adjustment as the key process for reducing the uncertainty of AIF and thus future climate projections.
Tianle Yuan↗
ENSO Disrupts Boreal Winter CRE Feedback
Twenty years of satellite-based cloud and radiation observations allow us to examine the observed cloud radiative effect (CRE) feedback (i.e., CRE change per unit change in global mean surface temperature). By employing a decomposition method to separate the contribution of “internal changes” and “relative-frequency-of-occurrence (RFO) changes” of distinct cloud regime (CR) groups, notable seasonal contrasts of CRE feedback characteristics emerge. Boreal winter CRE feedback is dominated by the positive shortwave CRE (SWCRE) feedback of oceanic low-thick clouds, due to their decreasing RFO as temperature rises. This signal is most likely due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. When ENSO signals are excluded, boreal winter CRE feedback becomes qualitatively similar to the boreal summer feedback, where several CR groups contribute to the total CRE feedback more evenly. Most CR groups’ CRE feedbacks largely come from changing RFO: e.g., the predominant transition from oceanic cumulus to broken clouds and more occurrences of higher convective clouds with warming temperature. At the same time, low-thick and broken clouds experience optical thinning and decreasing cloud fraction, and these features are more prominent in boreal summer than winter. Overall, the seasonally asymmetric patterns of CRE feedback, primarily due to ENSO, introduce complexity in assessments of CRE feedback.
ENSO↗
QBO Deepens MJO Convection
The underlying mechanism that couples the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has remained elusive, challenging our understanding of both phenomena. A popular hypothesis about the QBO-MJO connection is that the vertical extent of MJO convection is strongly modulated by the QBO. However, this hypothesis has not been verified observationally. Here we show that the cloud-top pressure and brightness temperature of deep convection and anvil clouds are systematically lower in the easterly QBO (EQBO) winters than in the westerly QBO (WQBO) winters, indicating that the vertical growth of deep convective systems within MJO envelopes is facilitated by the EQBO mean state. Moreover, the deeper clouds during EQBO winters are more effective at reducing longwave radiation escaping to space and thereby enhancing longwave cloud-radiative feedback within MJO envelopes. Our results provide robust observational evidence of the enhanced MJO activity during EQBO winters by mean state changes induced by the QBO.
quasi-biennial oscillation↗
LECTURE 8: Understanding Global Cloud Radiative Impacts
The influence of clouds on the radiation budget is one of the most important facets of the Earth’s climate. Satellite observations in the last 35 years have helped us understand the bulk radiative effects of different classes of clouds. Bill Rossow has spearheaded efforts in that direction, demonstrating the value of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud retrievals as a foundation for the full reconstruction of Earth’s Radiation Budget components. This main aim of this document is to provide an overview of the global radiative impacts of clouds at annual time scales. While geographical and seasonal aspects receive some attention, it is cloud radiative effect decomposition by cloud category (or“class” ) that is the main focal point. Furthermore, this document addresses the large-scale radiative behavior of clouds only for the current climate, with no further discussion of how this behavior may change in the future and what its climatic impact may be [please refer to Del Genio (2018) for an excellent overview of this topic]. Cloud classes can be defined in many ways, and are often referred to with terms such as “cloud type”and “cloud regime”. Some of the definitions are more meaningful at the level of individual instrument footprints (“pixels” for passive or “rays” for active satellite observations) while others for larger areas (e.g., “mesoscale”).This distinction will become apparent below.
Lazaros Oreopoulos↗
Detailing Cloud Property Feedbacks with a Regime-Based Decomposition
Diagnosing the root causes of cloud feedback in climate models and reasons for inter-model disagreement is a necessary first step in understanding their wide variation in climate sensitivities. Here we bring together two analysis techniques that illuminate complementary aspects of cloud feedback. The first quantifies feedbacks from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth, while the second separates feedbacks due to cloud property changes within specific cloud regimes from those due to regime occurrence frequency changes. We find that in the global mean, shortwave cloud feedback averaged across ten models comes solely from a positive within-regime cloud amount feedback countered slightly by a negative within-regime optical depth feedback. These within-regime feedbacks are highly uniform: In nearly all regimes, locations, and models, cloud amount decreases and cloud albedo increases with warming. In contrast, global-mean across-regime components vary widely across models but are very small on average. This component, however, is dominant in setting the geographic structure of the shortwave cloud feedback: Thicker, more extensive cloud types increase at the expense of thinner, less extensive cloud types in the extratropics, and vice versa at low latitudes. The prominent negative extratropical optical depth feedback has contributions from both within- and across-regime components, suggesting that thermodynamic processes affecting cloud properties as well as dynamical processes that favor thicker cloud regimes are important. The feedback breakdown presented herein may provide additional targets for observational constraints by isolating cloud property feedbacks within specific regimes without the obfuscating effects of changing dynamics that may differ across timescales.
climate sensitivity↗
Assessment of Two Stochastic Cloud Subcolumn Generators Using Observed Fields of Vertically Resolved Cloud Extinction
We evaluate two stochastic subcolumn generators used in GCMs to emulate subgrid cloud variability enabling comparisons with satellite observations and simulations of certain physical processes. Our evaluation necessitated the creation of a reference observational dataset that resolves horizontal and vertical cloud variability. The dataset combines two CloudSat cloud products that resolve two-dimensional cloud optical depth variability of liquid, ice, and mixed phase clouds when blended at ~200 m vertical and ~ 2 km horizontal scales. Upon segmenting the dataset to individual “scenes”, mean profiles of the cloud fields are passed as input to generators that produce scene-level cloud subgrid variability. The assessment of generator performance at the scale of individual scenes and in a mean sense is largely based on inferred joint histograms that partition cloud fraction within predetermined combinations of cloud top pressure –cloud optical thickness ranges. Our main finding is that both generators tend to underestimate optically thin clouds, while one of them also tends to overestimate some cloud types of moderate and high optical thickness. Associated radiative flux errors are also calculated by applying a simple transformation to the cloud fraction histogram errors, and are found to approach values almost as high as 3 Wm-2 for the cloud radiative effect in the shortwave part of the spectrum.
cloud variability↗
Machine-Learning Reveals Climate Forcing From Aerosols is Dominated by Increased Cloud Cover
Aerosol-cloud interactions have a potentially large impact on climate, but are poorly quantified and thus contribute a significant and long-standing uncertainty in climate projections. The impacts derived from climate models are poorly constrained by observations, because retrieving robust large-scale signals of aerosol-cloud interactions are frequently hampered by the considerable noise associated with meteorological co-variability. The Iceland-Holuhraun effusive eruption in 2014 resulted in a massive aerosol plume in an otherwise near-pristine environment and thus provided an ideal natural experiment to quantify cloud responses to aerosol perturbations. Here we disentangle significant signals from the noise of meteorological co-variability using a satellite-based machine-learning approach. Our analysis shows that aerosols from the eruption increased cloud cover by approximately 10%, and this appears to be the leading cause of climate forcing, rather than cloud brightening as previously thought. We find that volcanic aerosols do brighten clouds by reducing droplet size, but this has a significantly smaller radiative impact than changes in cloud fraction. These results add substantial observational constraints on the cooling impact of aerosols. Such constraints are critical for improving climate models, which still inadequately represent the complex macro-physical and micro-physical impacts of aerosol-cloud interactions.
Aerosols↗
Global Reduction in Ship-tracks from Sulfur Regulations for Shipping Fuel
Ship-tracks are produced by ship-emitted aerosols interacting with low clouds. Here, we apply deep learning models on satellite data to produce the first global climatology map of ship-tracks. We show that ship-tracks are at the nexus of cloud physics, maritime shipping, and fuel regulation. Our map captures major shipping lanes while missing others because of background conditions. Ship-track frequency is more than 10 times higher than a previous survey, and its interannual fluctuations reflect variations in cross-ocean trade, shipping activity, and fuel regulations. Fuel regulation can alter both detected frequency and shipping routes due to cost. The 2020 fuel regulation, together with the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, reduced ship-track frequency to its lowest level in recent decades across the globe and may have ushered in an era of low frequency. The regulation reduces the aerosol indirect forcing from ship emissions by 46% or between 0.02 and 0.27 W m −2 given its current estimates.
ship tracks↗
A New Organization Metric for Synoptic Scale Tropical Convective Aggregation
Organization metrics were originally developed to measure how densely convective clouds are arranged at mesoscales. In this work, we apply organization metrics to describe tropical synoptic scale convective activity. Such activity is identified by cloud-precipitation (hybrid) regimes defined at 1-degree and 1-hourly resolution. Existing metrics were found to perform inadequately for such convective regime aggregates because the large domain size and co-existence of sparse aggregate occurrences with noisy isolated convection often violate assumptions inherent in these metrics. In order to capture these characteristics, in this study the existing “convective organization potential” (COP) metric was modified so as to focus on local organization and provide increased weight to aggregate size. The resulting “area-based COP” (ABCOP) follows the principle that the more numerous the objects, the higher the chance of organization. It is thus optimized to capture large-scale convective events occurring during phenomena such as ENSO and MJO, while also performs as well as existing metrics for small domain sizes.
Synoptic scales↗
Understanding the Microphysical Control and Spatial-Temporal Variability of Warm Rain Probability Using CloudSat and MODIS Observations
By combining measurements from MODIS and the CloudSat radar, we develop a parameterization scheme to quantify the combined microphysical controls by liquid water path (LWP) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of the probability of precipitation (PoP) in marine low cloud over tropical oceans. We demonstrate that the spatial-temporal variation of grid-mean in-cloud can be largely explained by the variation of the joint probability density function of LWP and CDNC in the phase space specified by the bivariate PoP (LWP and CDNC) function. Through a series of sensitivity tests guided by this understanding, we find that in the Southeastern Pacific and Atlantic the stratocumulus to cumulus transition of the is mainly due to the variation of CDNC while the annual cycle is mainly due to the variation of LWP. The results of this study provide a viable way to diagnose the root cause of warm rain problems in global climate models.
Zhibo Zhang↗
Evaluation of GPROF V05 Precipitation Retrievals under Different Cloud Regimes
Precipitation retrievals from passive microwave satellite observations form the basis of many widely used precipitation products, but the performance of the retrievals depends on numerous factors such as surface type and precipitation variability. Previous evaluation efforts have identified bias dependence on precipitation regime, which may reflect the influence on retrievals of recurring factors. In this study, the concept of a regime-based evaluation of precipitation from the Goddard profiling (GPROF) algorithm is extended to cloud regimes. Specifically, GPROF V05 precipitation retrievals under four different cloud regimes are evaluated against ground radars over the United States. GPROF is generally able to accurately retrieve the precipitation associated with both organized convection and less organized storms, which collectively produce a substantial fraction of global precipitation. However, precipitation from stratocumulus systems is underestimated over land and overestimated over water. Similarly, precipitation associated with trade cumulus environments is underestimated over land, while biases over water depend on the sensor’s channel configuration. By extending the evaluation to more sensors and suppressed environments, these results complement insights previously obtained from precipitation regimes, thus demonstrating the potential of cloud regimes in categorizing the global atmosphere into discrete systems.
precipitation↗
Classifying planetary cloudiness with an updated set of MODIS Cloud Regimes
We present an updated Cloud Regime (CR) dataset based on Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6.1 cloud products, specifically joint histograms that partition cloud fraction within distinct combinations of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness ranges. The paper focuses on an edition of the CR dataset derived from our own aggregation of MODIS pixel-level cloud retrievals on an equal area grid and pre-specified 3-hour UTC intervals that spatiotemporally match International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) gridded cloud data. The other edition comes from the 1-degree daily aggregation provided by standard MODIS Level-3 data, as in previous versions of the MODIS CRs, for easier use with datasets mapped on equal angle grids. Both editions consist of 11 clusters whose centroids are nearly identical.We provide a physical interpretation of the new CRs and aspects of their climatology that have not been previously examined, such as seasonal and interannual variability of CR frequency of occurrence. We also examine the makeup and precipitation properties of the CRs assisted by independent datasets originating from active observations, and provide a first glimpse of how MODIS CRs relate to clouds as seen by ISCCP.
MODIS↗
Identifying Meteorological Influences on Marine Low Cloud Mesoscale Morphology Using Satellite Classifications
Marine low cloud mesoscale morphology in the southeastern Pacific Ocean is analyzed using a large dataset of machine-learning generated classifications spanning three years. Meteorological variables and cloud properties are composited 10by mesoscale cloud type, showing distinct meteorological regimes of marine low cloud organization from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The presentation of mesoscale cellular convection, with respect to geographic distribution, boundary layer structure, and large-scale environmental conditions, agrees with prior knowledge. Two tropical and subtropical cumuliform boundary layer regimes, suppressed cumulus and clustered cumulus, are studied in detail. The patterns in precipitation, circulation, column water vapor, and cloudiness are consistent with the representation of marine shallow mesoscale convective 15 self-aggregation by large eddy simulations of the boundary layer. Although they occur under similar large-scale conditions, the suppressed and clustered low cloud types are found to be well-separated by variables associated with low-level mesoscale circulation, with surface wind divergence being the clearest discriminator between them, whether reanalysis or satellite observations are used. Clustered regimes are associated with surface convergence and suppressed regimes are associated with surface divergence.
Johannes Mohrmann↗