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Lear, D.

Publications and source records attributed to Lear, D..

Predicting the Consequences of MMOD Penetrations on the International Space Station

The threat from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on space vehicles is often quantified in terms of the probability of no penetration (PNP). However, for large spacecraft, especially those with multiple compartments, a penetration may have a number of possible outcomes. The extent of the damage (diameter of hole, crack length or penetration depth), the location of the damage relative to critical equipment or crew, crew response, and even the time of day of the penetration are among the many factors that can affect the outcome. For the International Space Station (ISS), a Monte-Carlo style software code called Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) is used to predict the probability of several outcomes of an MMOD penetration-broadly classified as loss of crew (LOC), crew evacuation (Evac), loss of escape vehicle (LEV), and nominal end of mission (NEOM). By generating large numbers of MMOD impacts (typically in the billions) and tracking the consequences, MSCSurv allows for the inclusion of a large number of parameters and models as well as enabling the consideration of uncertainties in the models and parameters. MSCSurv builds upon the results from NASA's Bumper software (which provides the probability of penetration and critical input data to MSCSurv) to allow analysts to estimate the probability of LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM. This paper briefly describes the overall methodology used by NASA to quantify LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM with particular emphasis on describing in broad terms how MSCSurv works and its capabilities and most significant models.

Hyde, James↗

Estimating Consequences of MMOD Penetrations on ISS

The threat from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on space vehicles is often quantified in terms of the probability of no penetration (PNP). However, for large spacecraft, especially those with multiple compartments, a penetration may have a number of possible outcomes. The extent of the damage (diameter of hole, crack length or penetration depth), the location of the damage relative to critical equipment or crew, crew response, and even the time of day of the penetration are among the many factors that can affect the outcome. For the International Space Station (ISS), a Monte-Carlo style software code called Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) is used to predict the probability of several outcomes of an MMOD penetration-broadly classified as loss of crew (LOC), crew evacuation (Evac), loss of escape vehicle (LEV), and nominal end of mission (NEOM). By generating large numbers of MMOD impacts (typically in the billions) and tracking the consequences, MSCSurv allows for the inclusion of a large number of parameters and models as well as enabling the consideration of uncertainties in the models and parameters. MSCSurv builds upon the results from NASA's Bumper software (which provides the probability of penetration and critical input data to MSCSurv) to allow analysts to estimate the probability of LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM. This paper briefly describes the overall methodology used by NASA to quantify LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM with particular emphasis on describing in broad terms how MSCSurv works and its capabilities and most significant models.

Evans, H.↗

Surveys of ISS Returned Hardware for MMOD Impacts

Since February 2001, the Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) group at the Johnson Space Center in Houston has performed 26 post-flight inspections on space exposed hardware that have been returned from the International Space Station. Data on 1,024 observations of MMOD damage have been collected from these inspections. Survey documentation typically includes impact feature location and size measurements as well as microscopic photography (25-200x). Sampling of impacts sites for projectile residue was performed for the largest features. Results of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) analysis to discern impactor source is included in the database. This paper will summarize the post-flight MMOD inspections, and focus on two inspections in particular: (1) Pressurized Mating Adapter-2 (PMA-2) cover returned in 2015 after 1.6 years exposure with 26 observed damages, and (2) Airlock shield panels returned in 2010 after 8.7 years exposure with 58 MMOD damages. Feature sizes from the observed data are compared to predictions using the Bumper risk assessment code.

Hyde, James↗

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk Assessment With Bumper 3

The Bumper 3 computer code is the primary tool used by NASA for micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk analysis. Bumper 3 (and its predecessors) have been used to analyze a variety of manned and unmanned spacecraft. The code uses NASA's latest micrometeoroid (MEM-R2) and orbital debris (ORDEM 3.0) environment definition models and is updated frequently with ballistic limit equations that describe the hypervelocity impact performance of spacecraft materials. The Bumper 3 program uses these inputs along with a finite element representation of spacecraft geometry to provide a deterministic calculation of the expected number of failures. The Bumper 3 software is configuration controlled by the NASA/JSC Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Group. This paper will demonstrate MMOD risk assessment techniques with Bumper 3 used by NASA's HVIT Group. The Permanent Multipurpose Module (PMM) was added to the International Space Station in 2011. A Bumper 3 MMOD risk assessment of this module will show techniques used to create the input model and assign the property IDs. The methodology used to optimize the MMOD shielding for minimum mass while still meeting structural penetration requirements will also be demonstrated.

Hyde, J.↗

Development and Evaluation of the Next Generation of Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Shields

Recent events such as the Chinese anti-satellite missile test in January 2007 and the collision between a Russian Cosmos satellite and US Iridium satellite in February 2009 are responsible for a rapid increase in the population of orbital debris in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Without active debris removal strategies the debris population in key orbits will continue to increase, requiring enhanced shielding capabilities to maintain allowable penetration risks. One of the more promising developments in recent years for meteoroid and orbital debris shielding (MMOD) is the application of open cell foams. Although shielding onboard the International Space Station is the most capable ever flown, the most proficient configuration (stuffed Whipple shield) requires an additional ~30% of the shielding mass for non-ballistic requirements (e.g. stiffeners, fasteners, etc.). Open cell foam structures provide similar mechanical performance to more traditional structural components such as honeycomb sandwich panels, as well as improved projectile fragmentation and melting as a result of repeated shocking by foam ligaments. In this paper, the preliminary results of an extensive hypervelocity impact test program on next generation MMOD shielding configurations incorporating open-cell metallic foams are reported.

Christiansen, E.↗

Investigation of MMOD Impact on STS-115 Shuttle Payload Bay Door Radiator

The Orbiter radiator system consists of eight individual 4.6 m x 3.2 m panels located with four on each payload bay door. Forward panels #1 and #2 are 2.3 cm thick while the aft panels #3 and #4 have a smaller overall thickness of 1.3 cm. The honeycomb radiator panels consist of 0.028 cm thick Aluminum 2024-T81 facesheets and Al5056-H39 cores. The face-sheets are topped with 0.005 in. (0.127 mm) silver-Teflon tape. The radiators are located on the inside of the shuttle payload bay doors, which are closed during ascent and reentry, limiting damage to the on-orbit portion of the mission. Post-flight inspections at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) following the STS-115 mission revealed a large micrometeoroid/orbital debris (MMOD) impact near the hinge line on the #4 starboard payload bay door radiator panel. The features of this impact make it the largest ever recorded on an orbiter payload bay door radiator. The general location of the damage site and the adjacent radiator panels can be seen in Figure 2. Initial measurements of the defect indicated that the hole in the facesheet was 0.108 in. (2.74 mm) in diameter. Figure 3 shows an image of the front side damage. Subsequent observations revealed exit damage on the rear facesheet. Impact damage features on the rear facesheet included a 0.03 in. diameter hole (0.76 mm), a approx.0.05 in. tall bulge (approx.1.3 mm), and a larger approx.0.2 in. tall bulge (approx.5.1 mm) that exhibited a crack over 0.27 in. (6.8 mm) long. A large approx.1 in. (25 mm) diameter region of the honeycomb core was also damaged. Refer to Figure 4 for an image of the backside damage to the panel. No damage was found on thermal blankets or payload bay door structure under the radiator panel. Figure 5 shows the front facesheet with the thermal tape removed. Ultrasound examination indicated a maximum facesheet debond extent of approximately 1 in. (25 mm) from the entry hole. X-ray examinations revealed damage to an estimated 31 honeycomb cells with an extent of 0.85 in. x 1.1 in. (21.6 x 27.9 mm). Pieces of the radiator at and surrounding the impact site were recovered during the repair procedures at KSC. They included the thermal tape, front facesheet, honeycomb core, and rear facesheet. These articles were examined at JSC using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) with an energy dispersive x-ray spectrometer (EDS). Figure 6 shows SEM images of the entry hole in the facesheet. The asymmetric height of the lip may be attributed to projectile shape and impact angle. Numerous instances of a glass-fiber organic matrix composite were observed in the facesheet tape sample. The fibers were approximately 10 micrometers in diameter and variable lengths. EDS analysis indicated a composition of Mg, Ca, Al, Si, and O. Figures 7 and 8 present images of the fiber bundles, which were believed to be circuit board material based on similarity in fiber diameter, orientation, consistency, and composition. A test program was initiated in an attempt to simulate the observed damage to the radiator facesheet and honeycomb. Twelve test shots were performed using projectiles cut from a 1.6 mm thick fiberglass circuit board substrate panel. Results from test HITF07017, shown in figures 9 and 10, correlates with the observed impact features reasonably well. The test was performed at 4.14 km/sec with an impact angle of 45 degrees using a cylindrical projectile with a diameter and length of 1.25 mm. The fiberglass circuit board material had a density of 1.65 g/cu cm, giving a projectile mass of 2.53 mg. An analysis was performed using the Bumper code to estimate the probability of impact to the shuttle from a 1.25 mm diameter particle. Table 1 shows a 1.6% chance (impact odds = 1 in 62) of a 1.25 mm or larger MMOD impact on the radiators of the vehicle during a typical ISS mission. There is a 0.4% chance (impact odds = 1 in 260) that a 1.25 mm or larger MMOD particle would impact the RCC wing leading edge and nose cap during a typical miion. Figure 11 illustrates the vulnerable areas of the wing leading edge reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC), an area of the vehicle that is very sensitive to impact damage. The highlighted red, orange, yellow, and light green areas would be expected to experience critical damage if impacted by an OD particle such as the one that hit the RH4 radiator panel on STS-115.

Hyde, J.↗

Meteoroid/orbital debris impact damage predictions for the Russian space station MIR

Components of the Mir space station have been exposed to the meteoroid/orbital debris (M/OD) environment for up to 11 years. During this period, no M/OD impact perforation of the pressure shell of the manned modules were reported. The NASA standard M/OD analysis code BUMPER was used to predict the probability of M/OD impact damage to various components of Mir. The analysis indicates a 1 in 2.2 chance that a M/OD impact would have caused a penetration resulting in a pressure leak of the Mir modules since its launch up to the February 1997. For the next five years, the estimated odds become 1 in 3. On an annual basis, penetration risks are 60 percent higher, on the average, in the next five years due to the larger size of Mir and the growth in the orbital debris population.

Christiansen, E. L.↗