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Lee, Paul

Publications and source records attributed to Lee, Paul.

At least 19 records

Benefit Assessment of the Integrated Demand Management Concept for Multiple New York Metroplex Airports

Benefits of the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept were assessed utilizing a newly developed automated simulation capability called ‘Traffic Management Initiative Automated Simulation (TMIAutoSim).’ The IDM concept focuses on improving traffic flow management (TFM) by coordinating the FAA’s strategic Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) with its more tactical Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system. The IDM concept leverages a new TFMS capability called Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) to strategically pre-condition traffic demand flowing into a TBFM-managed arrival environment, where TBFM is responsible for tactically managing traffic by generating precise arrival schedules. The IDM concept was developed over a multi-year effort, focusing on solving New York metroplex airport arrival problems. TMIAutoSim closely mimics NASA’s high-fidelity simulation capabilities while enabling more data to be collected at higher speed. Using this new capability, the IDM concept was evaluated using realistic traffic across various weather scenarios. Six representative weather days were selected after clustering three months of historical data. For those selected six days, Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) and LaGuardia Airport (LGA) arrival traffic scenarios were developed. For each selected day, the historical data were analyzed to accurately simulate actual operations and the weather impact of the day. The current day operations and the IDM concept operations were simulated for the same weather scenarios and the results were compared. The selected six days were categorized into two groups: ‘clear weather’ for days without Ground Delay Programs (GDP) and ‘convective weather’ for days with GDP and significant weather around New York metroplex airports. For the clear weather scenarios, IDM operations reduced last minute, unanticipated departure delays for short-haul flights within TBFM control boundaries with minimal to no impact on throughput and total delay. For the convective weather scenarios, IDM significantly reduced delays and increased throughput to the destination airports.

Traffic Management Initiative Automated Simulation

Using Machine-Learning to Dynamically Generate Operationally Acceptable Strategic Reroute Options

The newly developed Trajectory Option Set (TOS), a preference-weighted set of alternative routes submitted by flight operators, is a capability in the U.S. traffic flow management system that enables automated trajectory negotiation between flight operators and Air Navigation Service Providers. The objective of this paper is to describe and demonstrate an approach for automatically generating pre-departure and airborne TOSs that have a high probability of operational acceptance. The approach uses hierarchical clustering of historical route data to identify route candidates. The probability of operational acceptance is then estimated using predictors trained on historical flight plan amendment data using supervised machine learning algorithms, allowing the routes with highest probability of operational acceptance to be selected for the TOS. Features used describe historical route usage, difference in flight time and downstream demand to capacity imbalance. A random forest was found to be the best performing algorithm for learning operational acceptability, with a model accuracy of 0.96. The approach is demonstrated for an historical pre-departure flight from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport to Newark Liberty International Airport.

Evans, Antony

Using Machine-Learning to Dynamically Generate Operationally Acceptable Strategic Reroute Options

The newly developed Trajectory Option Set (TOS), a preference-weighted set of alternative routes submitted by flight operators, is a capability in the U.S. traffic flow management system that enables automated trajectory negotiation between flight operators and Air Navigation Service Providers. The objective of this paper is to describe and demonstrate an approach for automatically generating pre-departure and airborne TOSs that have a high probability of operational acceptance. The approach uses hierarchical clustering of historical route data to identify route candidates. The probability of operational acceptance is then estimated using predictors trained on historical flight plan amendment data using supervised machine learning algorithms, allowing the routes with highest probability of operational acceptance to be selected for the TOS. Features used describe historical route usage, difference in flight time and downstream demand to capacity imbalance. A random forest was found to be the best performing algorithm for learning operational acceptability, with a model accuracy of 0.96. The approach is demonstrated for an historical pre-departure flight from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport to Newark Liberty International Airport.

Evans, Antony

Designing Graceful Degradation into Complex Systems: The Interaction Between Causes of Degradation and the Association with Degradation Prevention and Recovery

System resilience is critical to safety in air traffic control. An important element of maintaining resilience is the ability of systems to degrade gracefully. Of the available graceful degradation research, a majority of studies have focused primarily on technological causes of degradation only, limiting an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation in air traffic control, and the preventative and mitigative strategies that enable graceful degradation. The current study aimed to address this research gap by investigating causes of degradation in air traffic control (ATC) across the broad categories of technology, the environment, and the human operator, and the potential interactions between these causes. 12 retired controllers (ATCOs - Air Traffic Control Officers) participated in semi-structured interviews focused on previous experience of causes of degradation and mitigation strategies. Findings provide an understanding of causation of degradation in air traffic control, and the prevention and mitigation strategies that moderate the relationship between cause and system effect. Findings confirmed that causes appear to interact to create compound, multiple effects on overall system performance. Findings also revealed prevention and mitigation strategies utilized to moderate the effect of the cause on the system. In order to gain an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation, and effective prevention or mitigation strategies, causes from multiple categories, and the interactions between them, must be identified. Findings have implications for designers of future air traffic control systems to ensure the ability of the system to gracefully degrade, as well as risk assessment and system validation processes.

Graceful Degradation

The Influence of Mental Workload in Causes of System Degradation in Air Traffic Control

System safety and resilience is a critical concern in the air traffic domain. An important element of maintaining system safety and resilience is the ability of systems to ‘degrade gracefully'. However, previous research on the causes of system degradation in the air traffic domain are sporadic, and the potential interaction between the causes of degradation, and the resulting possible compound effect on the entire system, has been under-researched. An interview study was conducted with 12 retired controllers as participants. The results of a thematic analysis revealed the key causes of system degradation, and the associated impact on the ability of the controllers to prevent system degradation or recover the system. Findings have direct implications for identifying and mitigating potential risks of increasingly automated air traffic control systems.

Edwards, Tamsyn

Designing Graceful Degradation into Complex Systems: The Interaction Between Causes of Degradation and the Association with Degradation Prevention and Recovery

System resilience is critical to safety in air traffic control. An important element of maintaining resilience is the ability of systems to degrade gracefully. Of the available graceful degradation research, a majority of studies have focused primarily on technological causes of degradation only, limiting an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation in air traffic control, and the preventative and mitigative strategies that enable graceful degradation. The current study aimed to address this research gap by investigating causes of degradation in air traffic control across the broad categories of technology, the environment, and the human operator, and the potential interactions between these causes. 12 retired controllers participated in semi-structured interviews focused on previous experience of causes of degradation and mitigation strategies. Findings provide an understanding of causation of degradation in air traffic control, and the prevention and mitigation strategies that moderate the relationship between cause and system effect. Findings confirmed that causes appear to interact to create compound, multiple effects on overall system performance. Findings also revealed prevention and mitigation strategies utilized to moderate the effect of the cause on the system. In order to gain an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation, and effective prevention or mitigation strategies, causes from multiple categories, and the interactions between them, must be identified. Findings have implications for designers of future air traffic control systems to ensure the ability of the system to gracefully degrade, as well as risk assessment and system validation processes.

human performance

Designing Graceful Degradation into Complex Systems: Identification of Causes of Degradation, Interactions, and Mitigation of Degradation in Air Traffic Control

System resilience is critical to safety in air traffic control. An important element of maintaining resilience is the ability of systems to degrade gracefully. Of the available graceful degradation research, a majority of studies have focused primarily on technological causes of degradation only, limiting an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation in air traffic control, and the preventative and mitigative strategies that enable graceful degradation. The current study aimed to address this research gap by investigating causes of degradation in air traffic control across the broad categories of technology, the environment, and the human operator, and the potential interactions between these causes. 12 retired controllers participated in semi-structured interviews focused on previous experience of causes of degradation and mitigation strategies. Findings provide an understanding of causation of degradation in air traffic control, and the prevention and mitigation strategies that moderate the relationship between cause and system effect. Findings confirmed that causes appear to interact to create compound, multiple effects on overall system performance. Findings also revealed prevention and mitigation strategies utilized to moderate the effect of the cause on the system. In order to gain an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation, and effective prevention or mitigation strategies, causes from multiple categories, and the interactions between them, must be identified. Findings have implications for designers of future air traffic control systems to ensure the ability of the system to gracefully degrade, as well as risk assessment and system validation processes.

human performance

Towards Designing Graceful Degradation into Trajectory Based Operations: A Human-Systems Integration Approach

One of the most fundamental changes to the air traffic management system in NextGen is the concept of trajectory based operations (TBO). With the introduction of such change, system safety and resilience is a critical concern, in particular, the ability of systems to gracefully degrade. In order to design graceful degradation into a TBO envrionment, knowledge of the potential causes of degradation, and appropriate solutions, is required. In addition, previous research has predominantly explored the technological contribution to graceful degradation, frequently neglecting to consider the role of the human operator, specifically, air traffic controllers (ATCOs). This is out of step with real-world operations, and potentially limits an ecologically valid understanding of achieving graceful degradation in an air traffic control (ATC) environment. The following literature review aims to identify and summarize the literature to date on the potential causes of degradation in ATC and the solutions that may be applied within a TBO context, with a specific focus on the contribution of the air traffic controller. A framework of graceful degradation, developed from the literature, is presented. It is argued that in order to achieve graceful degradation within TBO, a human-system integration approach must be applied.

human-system integration

Towards Designing Graceful Degradation into Trajectory Based Operations: A Human-Machine System Integration Approach

One of the most fundamental changes to the air traffic management system in NextGen is the concept of trajectory based operations (TBO). With the introduction of such change, system safety and resilience is a critical concern, in particular, the ability of systems to gracefully degrade. In order to design graceful degradation into a TBO envrionment, knowledge of the potential causes of degradation, and appropriate solutions, is required. In addition, previous research has predominantly explored the technological contribution to graceful degradation, frequently neglecting to consider the role of the human operator, specifically, air traffic controllers (ATCOs). This is out of step with real-world operations, and potentially limits an ecologically valid understanding of achieving graceful degradation in an air traffic control (ATC) environment. The following literature review aims to identify and summarize the literature to date on the potential causes of degradation in ATC and the solutions that may be applied within a TBO context, with a specific focus on the contribution of the air traffic controller. A framework of graceful degradation, developed from the literature, is presented. It is argued that in order to achieve graceful degradation within TBO, a human-system integration approach must be applied.

human-system integration

Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper.

route advisories

Towards Designing Graceful Degradation into Trajectory Based Operations: A Human-Machine System Integration Approach

One of the most fundamental changes to the air traffic management system in NextGen is the concept of trajectory based operations (TBO). With the introduction of such change, system safety and resilience is a critical concern, in particular, the ability of systems to gracefully degrade. In order to design graceful degradation into a TBO envrionment, knowledge of the potential causes of degradation, and appropriate solutions, is required. In addition, previous research has predominantly explored the technological contribution to graceful degradation, frequently neglecting to consider the role of the human operator, specifically, air traffic controllers (ATCOs). This is out of step with real-world operations, and potentially limits an ecologically valid understanding of achieving graceful degradation in an air traffic control (ATC) environment. The following literature review aims to identify and summarize the literature to date on the potential causes of degradation in ATC and the solutions that may be applied within a TBO context, with a specific focus on the contribution of the air traffic controller. A framework of graceful degradation, developed from the literature, is presented. It is argued that in order to achieve graceful degradation within TBO, a human-system integration approach must be applied.

trajectory based operations

Analysis of the Capacity Potential of Current Day and Novel Configurations for New York's John F. Kennedy Airport

In 2015, a series of systems analysis studies were conducted on John F. Kennedy Airport in New York (NY) in a collaborative effort between NASA and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ). This work was performed to build a deeper understanding of NY airspace and operations to determine the improvements possible through operational changes with tools currently available, and where new technology is required for additional improvement. The analysis was conducted using tool-based mathematical analyses, video inspection and evaluation using recorded arrival/departure/surface traffic captured by the Aerobahn tool (used by Kennedy Airport for surface metering), and aural data archives available publically through the web to inform the video segments. A discussion of impacts of trajectory and operational choices on capacity is presented, including runway configuration and usage (parallel, converging, crossing, shared, independent, staggered), arrival and departure route characteristics (fix sharing, merges, splits), and how compression of traffic is staged. The authorization in March of 2015 for New York to use reduced spacing under the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Wake Turbulence Recategorization (RECAT) also offers significant capacity benefit for New York airports when fully transitioned to the new spacing requirements, and the impact of these changes for New York is discussed. Arrival and departure capacity results are presented for each of the current day Kennedy Airport configurations. While the tools allow many variations of user-selected conditions, the analysis for these studies used arrival-priority, no-winds, additional safety buffer of 5% to the required minimum spacing, and a mix of traffic typical for Kennedy. Two additional "novel" configurations were evaluated. These configurations are of interest to Port Authority and to their airline customers, and are believed to offer near-term capacity benefit with minimal operational and equipage changes. One of these is the addition of an Optimized Profile Descent (OPD) route to runways 22L and 22R, and the other is the simultaneous use of 4 runways, which is not currently done at Kennedy. The background and configuration for each of these is described, and the capacity results are presented along with a discussion of drawbacks and enablers for each.

Glaab, Patricia

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular inefficiency that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based metering of internal departures, or TMA scheduling. Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot be easily fitted into the overhead stream. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. Depending on how the double delay is defined between 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent of arrivals at EWR experienced double delays in this period. However, this represents between 21 percent and 62 percent of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling. A deep dive into the data reveals that two causes of high internal departure scheduling delays are upstream flights making up time between their estimated departure clearance times (EDCTs) and entry into time based metering, which undermines the sequencing and spacing underlying the flight EDCTs, and high demand on TMA, when TMA airborne metering delays are high. Data mining methods (currently) including logistic regression, support vector machines and K-nearest neighbors are used to predict the occurrence of double delays and high internal departure scheduling delays with accuracies up to 0.68. So far, key indicators of double delay and high internal departure scheduling delay are TMA virtual runway queue size, and the degree to which estimated runway demand based on TMA estimated times of arrival has changed relative to the estimated runway demand based on EDCTs. However, more analysis is needed to confirm this.

traffic management advisor

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular perceived inequity that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based scheduling of internal departures by the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) (now operationally superseded by the FAA's the Time-Based Flow Management system). Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot easily fit into the arrival flow at the runway. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. TMA scheduling delays are found to be generally higher than TMA airborne metering delays, regardless of prior GDP delays. Depending on how the double delay is defined, between 42 and 62 of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling experienced double delays in this period. A deep dive into the data reveals that contributors to double delays include upstream flights departing before their Expect Departure Clearance Times (EDCTs); differences in the rates used for setting EDCTs and TMA Scheduled Times of Arrival; differences in the arrival demand expected based on EDCTs and the arrival demand entering TMA; and shorter en route times between takeoff and entry into TMA than assumed in the calculation of flight EDCTs, all of which undermine the sequencing and spacing underlying flight EDCTs. Double delays are also found to coincide with periods in which the virtual runway arrival queue being served by a TMA is large, there are periods of high demand relative to capacity, and there are high airborne metering delays. Data mining techniques are used to confirm that each of these factors contribute to the occurrence of double delay andor high internal departure scheduling delay across three months of data from June to August 2010. Predictors of the occurrence of double delay and high TMA scheduling delay are built using logistic regression, providing prediction accuracies of 69 and 73, respectively.

traffic flow management

Exploring Management of Arrival Spacing Using Route Extensions with Terminal Spacing Tools

Airports with shared runway operations between arrivals and departures can experience severe departure gridlock and delays during a heavy arrival push due to insufficient gaps in the arrival stream for aircraft to depart. The problem is accentuated in situations when a large gap in the arrival spacing has to be created at the last minute due to wake vortex separation requirements. At LaGuardia airport, wake vortex separation problems arise when a heavy jet, such as a B757, departing on Runway 31 needs additional spacing between arrivals on Runway 22. A standard solution for controllers in many airports in situations such as this is to extend the downwind leg of arrival aircraft to create extra space between the arrivals. The question addressed in this paper is how such route extensions would work with terminal scheduling operations, namely (1) the automated Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS) tools and (2) a new scheduling tool which increases the availability of gaps for departure aircraft (Departure Sensitive Arrival Spacing or DSAS). In a simulated LaGuardia airport (LGA) Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) airspace, two new RNAV arrival routes were created along with extensions to these routes. The arrival route from the south had a downwind leg extension near the airport in the final sector. The arrival route from the north had an extension in a feeder sector further from the airport. An exploratory one-hour run with the route extensions was compared to an hour run without the extensions. Topics included in the paper are 1) how the route extensions were developed, 2) a procedure outlining how the aircraft could be scheduled to the extensions and who would do it, and 3) the results of the exploratory run compared to the original run without the extensions. The results indicated that the extended downwind leg route helped to create a B757 departure gap in the middle of a packed arrival stream, resulting in a reduction of 11 minutes in average wait time for the B757s, but at a cost of increased controller self-reported workload from low to moderate.

time based flow management

The Effectiveness of a Route Crossing Tool in a Simulated New York Airspace

Congested airspace is the cause of many delays in the terminal area and these delays can have a ripple effect on the rest of a nation's airspace. The New York terminal area is an example of where this happens in the U. S. An important goal, therefore, is to increase the efficiency of operations in congested terminal airspace where possible. Modeling studies of arrival and departure flows have shown that sharing of arrival and departure airspace increases efficiency in terminal operations. One source of inefficiency in terminal operations is that departure aircraft are frequently held level under arrival flows when it would be more efficient to climb the departure aircraft earlier. A Route Crossing Tool was developed to help controllers climb Newark (EWR) departures to the south earlier by temporarily sharing airspace with arrivals coming into LaGuardia (LGA) from the south. Instead of flying under the arrivals, a departure to the south could climb earlier by flying through the arrival airspace if there was a suitable gap between arrivals. A Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) simulation was conducted in this environment which compared three tool conditions: Baseline (no tool), a Single Route Crossing tool in which one route through the arrival flow was evaluated for crossing, and a Multi-Route Crossing tool in which five parallel routes were evaluated. In all conditions, the departures could be held level under the arrival flow. The results showed that controllers climbed a higher proportion of departures in the Multi-Route tool condition than in the other two conditions, with a higher proportion of departures climbed in smaller gaps and in front of trailing arrivals. The controllers indicated that the Multi-Route and Single Route tools helped them estimate distances more accurately and rated safety, workload, and coordination in the simulation as acceptable.

terminal airspace

A Novel Application of TMA to Converging Runway Operations in a Simulated NextGen Environment

In 2013, the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA Ames Research Center conducted a human-in-the-loop simulation that examined the feasibility of applying a number of Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) solutions to complex arrival operations in and around the New York metroplex. The delivery of arrivals to Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) was the focus of this simulation, which involved extending the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS) scheduling capability to precisely schedule arrivals to intersecting runways 22 Left and 11. An important enabler for the concept was the availability of a dependent runway scheduler that was able to coordinate arrival times between aircraft landing on intersecting runways. At the time of the study, there was no functionality within the TSS scheduler to automatically create the dependent runway schedules. Instead, a Traffic Management Coordinator (TMC) manually created a de-conflicted schedule, which allowed for the concept to be tested as well as provided valuable insight into the tool requirements for a dependent runway scheduler. Throughout the course of preparations for the simulation, the individual serving as the TMC developed a number of strategies and procedures for manually adjusting the Scheduled Time of Arrival (STA) of the EWR arrivals in order to ensure that adequate spacing was provided between runway 22L and 11 arrival pairs. This paper describes the strategies and procedures that were developed and details how they were successfully applied during the simulation. Results will also be presented that shed additional light on exactly how the schedules were manipulated and their impact on delivery performance and safety. Ideas for additional TSS enhancements and next steps, based on participant feedback, will also be presented.

Homola, Jeffrey

Coordination Between Sectors in Shared Airspace Operations

Recent studies have shown that a more efficient use of airspace may involve shared airspace operations, i.e., temporal as well as spatial separation of arrival and departure flows [1][2]. Temporal separation would permit a departure aircraft to fly through an arrival flow, depending on an available gap. This would necessitate careful and precise coordination between controllers in different sectors. Three methods of coordination which permit the penetration of a controller's airspace by another controller's aircraft are described: point out, look-and-go, and prearranged coordination procedure. Requirements of each method are given, along with associated problems that have surfaced in the field as described by Aviation Safety and Reporting System (ASRS) and other reports. A Human-in-the-Loop simulation was designed to compare two of the methods: point out and prearranged coordination procedures. In prearranged coordination procedures (P-ACP), the controllers control an aircraft in another controller's airspace according to specified prearranged procedures, without coordinating each individual aircraft with another controller, as is done with point outs. In the simulation, three experienced controllers rotated through two arrival sectors and a non-involved arrival sector of a Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) airspace. Results of eighteen one-hour simulation runs (nine in each of the two conditions) showed no impact of the coordination method on separation violations nor on arrival times for 208 departing aircraft crossing an arrival stream. Participant assessment indicated that although both coordination conditions were acceptable, the prearranged coordination procedure condition was slightly safer, more efficient, timely, and overall, worked better operationally. Problems arose in the point out condition regarding controllers noticing acceptance of point outs. Also, in about half of the point-out runs, time pressure was felt to have had an impact on when and if the departures could cross an arrival stream. An additional problem with point outs may be confusion in the field about which controller has responsibility for separating point-out aircraft from other aircraft.

Parke, Bonny