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Lerner, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Lerner, J..

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change: Relative Importance of Low- and High-Latitude Temperature Changes - 2

Using a variety of GCM experiments with various versions of the GISS model, we investigate how different aspects of tropospheric climate changes affect the extratropical Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) circulation indices. The results show that low altitude changes in the extratropical latitudinal temperature gradient can have a strong impact on eddy forcing of the extratropical zonal wind, in the sense that when this latitudinal temperature gradient increases, it helps force a more negative AO/NAO phase. In addition, local conditions at high latitudes can stabilize/destabilize the atmosphere, inducing negative/positive phase changes. To the extent that there is not a large temperature change in the tropical upper troposphere (either through reduced tropical sensitivity at the surface, or limited transport of this change to high levels), the changes in the low level temperature gradient can provide the dominate influence on the extratropical circulation, so that planetary wave meridional refraction and eddy angular momentum transport changes become uncorrelated with potential vorticity transports. In particular, the climate change that produces the most positive NAO phase change would have substantial warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the Pacific Ocean, with high latitude warming in the North Atlantic. An increase in positive phase of these circulation indices is still more likely than not, but it will depend on the degree of tropical and high latitude temperature response and the transport of low level warming into the upper troposphere. These are aspects that currently differ among the models used for predicting the effects of global warning, contributing to the lack of consensus of future changes in the AO/NAO.

Rind, D.↗

Overview of the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II water vapor observations - Method, validation, and data characteristics

Results are presented of water vapor observations in the troposphere and stratosphere performed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II solar occultation instrument, and the analysis procedure, the instrument errors, and data characteristics are discussed. The results are compared with correlative in situ measurements and other satellite data. The features of the data set collected between 1985 and 1989 include an increase in middle- and upper-tropospheric water vapor during northern hemisphere summer and autumn; minimum water vapor values of 2.5-3 ppmv in the tropical lower stratosphere; slowly increasing water vapor values with altitude in the stratosphere, reaching 5-6 ppmv or greater near the stratopause; extratropical values with minimum profile amounts occurring above the conventionally defined tropopause; and higher extratropical than tropical water vapor values throughout the stratosphere except in locations of possible polar stratospheric clouds.

Rind, D.↗

Three-Dimensional Model Synthesis of the Global Methane Cycle

A synthesis of the global methane cycle is presented to attempt to generate an accurate global methane budget. Methane-flux measurements, energy data, and agricultural statistics are merged with databases of land-surface characteristics and anthropogenic activities. The sources and sinks of methane are estimated based on atmospheric methane composition and variations, and a global 3D transport model simulates the corresponding atmospheric responses. The geographic and seasonal variations of candidate budgets are compared with observational data, and the available observations are used to constrain the plausible methane budgets. The preferred budget includes annual destruction rates and annual emissions for various sources. The lack of direct flux measurements in the regions of many of these fluxes makes the unique determination of each term impossible. OH oxidation is found to be the largest single term, although more measurements of this and other terms are recommended.

Fung, I.↗

Positive water vapour feedback in climate models confirmed by satellite data

It has recently been suggested that GCMs used to evaluate climate change overestimate the greenhouse effect due to increased concentrations of trace gases in the atmosphere. Here, new satellite-generated water vapor data are used to compare summer and winter moisture values in regions of the middle and upper troposphere that have previously been difficult to observe with confidence. It is found that, as the hemispheres warm, increased convection leads to increased water vapor above 500 mbar in approximate quantitative agreement with results from current climate models. The same conclusion is reached by comparing the tropical western and eastern Pacific regions. Thus, water vapor feedback is not overestimated in models and should amplify the climate response to increased trace-gas concentrations.

Rind, D.↗

Global distribution of SAGE II data products

Techniques employed to map the global distribution of stratospheric aerosols using SAGE II data at four wavelengths (385, 453, 525 and 1020 microns) are described. The methods were devised to integrate the 900 data points scanned by the instrument with account taken of the different times the vertical profiles were obtained. The data have been used to calculate the O3, H2O, NO2 and aerosol optical thicknesses. Sample details of data gathered during April 1985 are discussed, with emphasis on difficulties being encountered in analyzing the differences being observed in the dawn and dusk data.

Rind, D.↗

The stability of dissipative magnetohydrodynamic shear flow in a parallel magnetic field

The linear stability properties of dissipative field-aligned shear flow are described analytically. The results are used to calculate the decay bounds of linearized perturbations occurring in unbounded planes of Couette flow in a parallel magnetic field. It is shown that the perturbations associated with small-amplitude localized disturbances may take the form of rolls along the shear, and exhibit ordinary potential decay, while misaligned perturbations exhibit enhanced decay in the presence of dissipation. A decay criterion is established for MHD shear flow in an accretion disk on the basis of the analytical results.

Lerner, J.↗

Three-Dimensional Tracer Model Study of Atmospheric CO2 - Response to Seasonal Exchanges with the Terrestrial Biosphere

A three-dimensional tracer transport model is used to investigate the annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration produced by seasonal exchanges with the terrestrial biosphere. The tracer model uses winds generated by a global general circulation model to advect and convect CO2; no explicit diffusion coefficients are employed. A biospheric exchange function constructed from a map of net primary productivity, and Azevedo's (1982) seasonality of CO2 uptake and release closely simulates the annual cycles at coastal stations. The results show that zonal homogeneity in surface CO2 concentrations can never be achieved at mid-latitudes where the time scale for zonal mixing is longer than the time scale for biospheric exchange. Analysis of the zonal mean balance in the lower troposphere reveals that atmospheric transport processes may alter the CO2 response to local biospheric exchanges by 50% or more. Hence year-to-year variation of the annual CO2 cycle may result from the natural variability of the atmospheric circulation as well as from changes in the sources and sinks.

Fung, I.↗