Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Lesley E Ott.
Concentration monitoring with satellite observations of the “atmospheric stocks” of greenhouse gases offers ways to assess the impact of human activity, natural processes, climate variability, and their interaction beyond what is possible with emissions monitoring alone.
Here we present a first look at the Gross Primary Production (GPP) forecast skill levels achievable with a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast system. Using NASA’s retrospective S2S ensemble forecast in conjunction with a terrestrial biosphere model, and using an independent, remote sensing-based dataset for validation, we demonstrate an ability to accurately forecast spring-summer carbon uptake at multi-month leads. Averaged across mid-and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere land, the GPP forecast initialized on January 1 produces statistically significant skill through summer. The skill achieved, however, is spatially variable, with some regions appearing to extract skill from accurate forecasts of snowpack removal and others extracting skill from the initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Our results reveal some heretofore unexplored facets of climate predictability and provide a look at what might be possible with future S2S forecast systems that are fully integrated with biogeochemical cycles.
The ability to monitor and understand natural and anthropogenic variability in atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2) is a growing need of many stakeholders across the world. Systems that assimilate satellite observations, given their short latency and dense spatial coverage, into high resolution global models are valuable, if not essential, tools for addressing this need. A notable drawback of modern assimilation systems is the long latency of many vital in-put datasets, e.g., inventories, in situ measurements, and re-processed remote-sensing data can trail the current date by months to years. This paper describes techniques for bias-correcting surface fluxes derived from satellite observations of the Earth’s surface to be consistent with constraints from inventories and in situ CO2 datasets. The techniques are applicable in both short-term forecasts and retrospective simulations, thus taking advantage of the coverage and short latency of satellite data while reproducing the major features of long-term inventory and in situ records. Our approach begins with a standard collection of diagnostic fluxes which incorporate a variety of remote-sensing driver data, viz. vegetation indices, fire radiative power, and nighttime lights. We then apply an empirical sink so that global budgets of the diagnostic fluxes match given atmospheric and oceanic growth rates for each year. This step removes coherent, systematic flux errors that produce biases inCO2which mask the signals an assimilation system hopes to capture. Depending on the simulation mode, the empirical sink uses different choices of atmospheric growth rates: estimates based on observations in retrospective mode and projections based on seasonal fore-casts of sea surface temperature in forecasting mode. The retrospective fluxes, when used in simulations with NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), reproduce marine boundary layer measurements with comparable skill to those using fluxes from a modern inversion system. The forecasted fluxes show promising accuracy in their application to the analysis of changes in the carbon cycle as they occur.
Mangroves buffer inland ecosystems from hurricane winds and storm surge. However, their ability to withstand harsh cyclone conditions depends on plant resilience traits and geomorphology. Using airborne lidar and satellite imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma, we estimated that 62% of mangroves in southwest Florida suffered canopy damage, with largest impacts in tall forests (>10 m). Mangroves on well-drained sites (83%) resprouted new leaves within one year after the storm. By contrast, in poorly-drained inland sites, we detected one of the largest mangrove diebacks on record (10,760 ha), triggered by Irma. We found evidence that the combination of low elevation (median = 9.4 cm asl), storm surge water levels (>1.4 m above the ground surface), and hydrologic isolation drove coastal forest vulnerability and were independent of tree height or wind exposure. Our results indicated that storm surge and ponding caused dieback, not wind. Tidal restoration and hydrologic management in these vulnerable, low-lying coastal areas can reduce mangrove mortality and improve resilience to future cyclones.
The Goddard Earth Observing System composition forecast (GEOS-CF) system is a high-resolution (0.25 degree) global constituent prediction system from NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). GEOS-CF offers a new tool for atmospheric chemistry research, with the goal to supplement NASA’s broad range of space-based and in-situ observation sand to support flight campaign planning, support of satellite observations, and air quality research. GEOS-CF expands on the GEOS weather and aerosol modeling system by introducing the GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide analyses and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric constituents including ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The chemistry module integrated in GEOS-CF is identical to the offline GEOS-Chem model and readily benefits from the innovations provided by the GEOS-Chem community.Evaluation of GEOS-CF against satellite, ozone sonde and surface observations show realistic simulated concentrations of O3, NO2, and CO, with normalized mean biases of -0.1 to -0.3, normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE) between 0.1-0.4, and correlations between 0.3-0.8. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the successful representation of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions, yet also highlight current limitations, such as an over prediction of summertime ozone over the Southeast United States. GEOS-CFv1.0 generally overestimates aerosols by 20-50% due to known issues in GEOS-Chem v12.0.1 that have been addressed in later versions.The 5-day hourly forecasts have skill scores comparable to the analysis. Model skills can be improved significantly by applying a bias-correction to the surface model output using a machine-learning approach.
Fire emissions of gases and aerosols alter atmospheric composition and have substantial impacts on climate, ecosystem function, and human health. Warming climate and human expansion in fire‐prone landscapes exacerbate fire impacts and call for more effective management tools. Here we developed a global fire forecasting system that predicts monthly emissions using past fire data and climate variables for lead times of 1 to 6 months. Using monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) as the prediction target, we fit a statistical time series model, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX), in over 1,300 different fire regions. Optimized parameters were then used to forecast future emissions. The forecast system took into account information about region‐specific seasonality, long‐term trends, recent fire observations, and climate drivers representing both large‐scale climate variability and local fire weather. We cross‐validated the forecast skill of the system with different combinations of predictors and forecast lead times. The reference model, which combined endogenous and exogenous predictors with a 1 month forecast lead time, explained 52% of the variability in the global fire emissions anomaly, considerably exceeding the performance of a reference model that assumed persistent emissions during the forecast period. The system also successfully resolved detailed spatial patterns of fire emissions anomalies in regions with significant fire activity. This study bridges the gap between the efforts of near‐real‐time fire forecasts and seasonal fire outlooks and represents a step toward establishing an operational global fire, smoke, and carbon cycle forecasting system.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) inversions for estimating natural carbon fluxes typically do not allow for adjustment of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, despite significant uncertainties in emission inventories and inadequacies in the specification of international bunker emissions in inversions. Also, most inversions place CO2 release from fossil fuel combustion and biospheric sources entirely at the surface. However, a non-negligible portion of the emissions actually occurs in the form of reduced carbon species, which are eventually oxidized to CO2 downwind. Omission of this ‘chemical pump’ can result in a significant redistribution of the inferred total carbon fluxes among regions. We assess the impacts of different prescriptions of fossil fuel emissions and accounting for the chemical pump on flux estimation, with a novel aspect of conducting both satellite CO2 observation-based and surface in situ-based inversions. We apply 3-D carbon monoxide (CO) loss rates archived from a state-of-the-art GEOS chemistry and climate model simulation in a forward transport model run to simulate the distribution of CO2 originating from oxidation of carbon species. We also subtract amounts from the prior surface CO2 fluxes that are actually emitted in the form of fossil and biospheric CO, methane, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We find that the posterior large-scale fluxes are generally insensitive to the finer-scale spatial differences between the ODIAC and CDIAC fossil fuel CO2 gridded datasets and assumptions about international bunker emissions. However, accounting for 3-D chemical CO2 production and the surface correction shifts the global carbon sink, e.g., from land to ocean and from the tropics to the north, with a magnitude and even direction that depend on assumptions about the surface correction. A GOSAT satellite-based inversion is more sensitive to the chemical pump than one using in situ observations, exhibiting substantial flux impacts of 0.28, 0.53, and -0.47 Pg C yr(exp -1) over tropical land, global land, and oceans, due to differences in the horizontal and vertical sampling of the wo observation types. Overall, the biases from neglecting the chemical pump appear to be minor relative to the flux estimate uncertainties and the differences between the in situ and GOSAT inversions, but their relative importance will grow in the future as observational coverage further increases and satellite retrieval biases decrease.
The impacts of drought on regional land and atmospheric carbon are still poorly understood. Here we quantify the impact of a regional US drought on land carbon fluxes (Gross Primary Production, or GPP, and Net Biosphere Production, or NBP) and atmospheric carbon (CO2) by imposing an idealized 3-month meteorological drought in an ensemble of coupled land-atmosphere climate simulations. The imposed drought, applied to the lower Mississippi River Valley (~500,000 km (exp 2)), leads to a 23% GPP reduction in the drought area in the month immediately following the drought’s termination. The drought also caused GPP reductions in some remote areas through drought-induced impacts on remote meteorology, particularly the areas adjacent to the imposed drought. In the remote areas, the induced precipitation changes are responsible for most of the anomalous land productivity. The impact of the drought-induced meteorological anomalies on GPP is greater than that of the CO2 anomalies by at least an order of magnitude. While their impact on GPP is secondary, the drought-induced atmospheric CO2 anomalies near the land surface can be as large as 3.57ppm. The significant CO2 anomalies cover an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, suggesting that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of drought-induced CO2 anomalies in the atmosphere. The imposed drought also leads to column-averaged CO2 increases of up to 0.78ppm, which is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas (GHG) observing satellites.
Observations taken over the last few decades indicate that dramatic changes are occurring in the ArcticBoreal Zone (ABZ), which are having significant impacts on ABZ inhabitants, infrastructure, flora and fauna, and economies. While suitable for detecting overall change, the current capability is inadequate for systematic monitoring and for improving process based and large scale understanding of the integrated components of the ABZ, which includes the cryosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Such knowledge will lead to improvements in Earth system models, enabling more accurate prediction of future changes and development of informed adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this article, we review the strengths and limitations of current space based observational capabilities for several important ABZ components and make recommendations for improving upon these current capabilities. We recommend an interdisciplinary and stepwise approach to develop a comprehensive ABZ Observing Network (ABZON), beginning with an initial focus on observing networks designed to gain process based understanding for individual ABZ components and systems that can then serve as the building blocks for a comprehensive ABZON.
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Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and carbon cycle predictability. First, the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon was studied by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations. Through drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the drought alters land’s productivity not only in the drought area but also in the adjacent areas. The atmospheric CO2 anomalies extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of drought‐induced carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 by the imposed drought is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and a terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake at multi-month leads in the Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitude land. The skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing as well as proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research activities to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.
Terrestrial biosphere is an integral part of the climate system and plays a vital role in controlling the dynamics of the Earth’s carbon cycle. In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and seasonal carbon cycle predictability. First, by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations, we investigated the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon. Through the drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the capability of the land’s carbon uptake is altered in both the drought area and the adjacent areas. The induced anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of the drought impact on carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitude land at multi-month leads. The prediction skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing, which provides a latent predictability to the forecast system, and by proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire carbon, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.