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Lesley Ott

Publications and source records attributed to Lesley Ott.

At least 19 records

Effect of Assimilating SMAP Soil Moisture on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes through Direct Insertion in a Land Surface Model

Soil moisture impacts the biosphere–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and CH4 and plays an important role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. A better representation of soil moisture would improve coupled carbon–water dynamics in terrestrial ecosystem models and could potentially improve model estimates of large-scale carbon fluxes and climate feedbacks. Here, we investigate using soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission to inform simulated carbon fluxes in the global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-wsl. Results suggest that the direct insertion of SMAP reduces the bias in simulated soil moisture at in situ measurement sites by 40%, with a greater improvement at temperate sites. A wavelet analysis between the model and measurements from 26 FLUXNET sites suggests that the assimilated run modestly reduces the bias of simulated carbon fluxes for boreal and subtropical sites at 1–2-month time scales. At regional scales, SMAP soil moisture can improve the estimated responses of CO2 and CH4 fluxes to extreme events such as the 2018 European drought and the 2019 rainfall event in the Sudd (Southern Sudan) wetlands. The simulated improvements to land–surface carbon fluxes using the direct insertion of SMAP are shown across a variety of timescales, which suggests the potential of SMAP soil moisture in improving the model representation of carbon–water coupling.

SMAP

Using Atmospheric Trace Gas Vertical Profiles to Evaluate Model Fluxes: A Case Study of Arctic-Cap Observations and Geos Simulations for the ABoVE Domain

Accurate estimates of carbon–climate feedbacks require an independent means for evaluating surface flux models at regional scales. The altitude-integrated enhancement (AIE) derived from the Arctic Carbon Atmospheric Profiles (Arctic-CAP) project demonstrates the utility of this bulk quantity for surface flux model evaluation. This bulk quantity leverages background mole fraction values from the middle free troposphere, is agnostic to uncertainties in boundary layer height, and can be derived from model estimates of mole fractions and vertical gradients. To demonstrate the utility of the bulk quantity, six airborne profiling surveys of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) throughout Alaska and northwestern Canada between April and November 2017 were completed as part of NASA’s Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). The Arctic-CAP sampling strategy involved acquiring vertical profiles of CO2, CH4, and CO from the surface to 5 km altitude at 25 sites around the ABoVE domain on a 4- to 6-week time interval. All Arctic-CAP measurements were compared to a global simulation using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling system. Comparisons of the AIE bulk quantity from aircraft observations and GEOS simulations of atmospheric CO2, CH4, and CO highlight the fidelity of the modeled surface fluxes. The model–data comparison over the ABoVE domain reveals that while current state-of-the-art models and flux estimates are able to capture broad-scale spatial and temporal patterns in near-surface CO2 and CH4 concentrations, more work is needed to resolve fine-scale flux features that are captured in CO observations

CO2

Earth System Perspective

We review the most current knowledge pertaining to carbon cycle components in an Earth System model and discuss data assimilation applications to inform and improve process-based representations in these models.

Earth System model

EarthShine: Observing Our World as an Exoplanet from the Surface of the Moon

NASA’s return to the Moon coincides with explosive growth in exoplanet discovery. Missions are being formulated to search for habitable planets orbiting other stars, making this the ideal time to deploy an instrument suite to the lunar surface to help us recognize a habitable exoplanet when we see it. We present EarthShine, a technically mature, three-instrument suite to observe the whole Earth from the Moon as an exoplanet proxy. Earth Shine data will validate and improve models critical for designing missions to image and characterize exoplanets, thus informing observing strategies for flagship missions to directly image exoplanets. EarthShine will answer interconnected questions in Earth and lunar science, exoplanets, and astrobiology, related to the credo“ follow the water.” Earth Shine can take advantage of current NASA programs to conduct science from the Moon with low-cost, mature space hardware to reduce risk and assure success. Like the 1968 Apollo Earthrise image of our home planet, lonely in the black sky, the appeal of Earth Shine to a multidisciplinary array of researchers in Earth Science, Planetary Science, and astrophysics will maximize both its scientific impact and its impact on the general public.

EarthShine

Covid-19 Impact Monitoring for Climate Environment (Greenhouse Gases)

To track atmospheric CO2 changes resulting from the lockdowns, observations collected by the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite and Japan’s Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) in 2020 were compared to results collected in previous years. The OCO-2 results were used to search for changes on regional scales over the globe. Targeted observations from GOSAT were used to track changes in large urban areas, such as Beijing and Tokyo. Both types of observations yielded key insights into the CO2 changes accompanying the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. ESA, NASA and JAXA developed the dashboard jointly to monitor the climate impacts of COVID-19.

greenhouse gases

Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans

While forecasts of atmospheric variables, and to a lesser degree ocean circulation, are relatively common, the forecast of biogeochemical conditions is still in its infancy. Using a dynamical ocean biogeochemical forecast forced by seasonal forecasts of atmospheric and physical ocean variables, we produce seasonal predictions of chlorophyll concentration at the global scale. Results show significant Anomaly Correlation Coefficients (ACCs) for the majority of regions (11 out of the 12 regions for the 1-month lead forecast). Root mean square errors are smaller (<0.05μg chlorophyll (chl) L−1) in the Equatorial regions compared to the higher latitudes(range from 0.05 up to 0.13 μg chl L−1). The forecast for all regions except three (North Atlantic, South Pacific and North Indian) are within the Semi-Interquartile Range of the satellite chlorophyll concentration (Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP), 27.9%). This suggests the potential for skillful global biogeochemical forecasts on seasonal timescales of chlorophyll, primary production and harmful algal blooms that could support fisheries management and other applications.

ocean biogeochemistry

A Global Perspective of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important greenhouse gas affected by human activity. About half of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuel combustion remains in the atmosphere, contributing to rising temperatures, while the other half is absorbed by natural land and ocean carbon reservoirs. Despite the importance of CO2, many questions remain regarding the processes that control these fluxes and how they may change in response to a changing climate. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), launched on July 2, 2014, is NASA's first satellite mission designed to provide the global view of atmospheric CO2 needed to better understand both human emissions and natural fluxes. This visualization shows how column CO2 mixing ratio, the quantity observed by OCO-2, varies throughout the year. By observing spatial and temporal gradients in CO2 like those shown, OCO-2 data will improve our understanding of carbon flux estimates. But, CO2 observations can't do that alone. This visualization also shows that column CO2 mixing ratios are strongly affected by large-scale weather systems. In order to fully understand carbon flux processes, OCO-2 observations and atmospheric models will work closely together to determine when and where observed CO2 came from. Together, the combination of high-resolution data and models will guide climate models towards more reliable predictions of future conditions.

CO2

Arctic and Boreal Model Development in GMAO

Ongoing research in the GMAO seeks to improve the representation atmospheric, land, and ocean processes in the boreal Arctic and other polar regions. This talk touches on a range of topics, including improvements to sea ice and land ice representation in our subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction system and the initiation of a new collaborative effort with the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory to develop a high resolution, polar-focused atmospheric reanalysis.

Arctic Boreal

Climate Science in the Era of COVID-19

This presentation, coordinated by the Earth to Sky initiative, seeks to advance the use of NASA data by informal educators, specifically focusing on environmental changes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. We start by showing observations of air quality, discuss changes in fire frequency in some regions, and end by showing changes in carbon dioxide concentrations with an emphasis on NASA's interdisciplinary program of Earth observations. He end with a discussion where interpreter's can ask questions about what they've learned guided by colleagues from the National Park Service.

COVID-19